CFB Bracketology: Week 14
Breaking down conference and at-large races with playoff stakes during Rivalry Week
Author’s Note: Programming here is going to be slightly different with Thanksgiving this week. Bracketology today and UEC Game 2 tomorrow are coming. We’ll take Thursday off and Friday will be a rivalry week edition of Games of the Slot! Have a happy Thanksgiving everyone!
If you had questions on if the 12-team playoff was a good thing or not, just allow me to point to last weekend’s games. With seven AP Top 25 teams falling, those upsets all mattered in the playoff race. This late into the season, there’s more games than ever that have an absolute bearing on who hoists the national championship trophy at the end of the season. This is great and I will not accept any other opinions as correct, but you’re welcome to debate me.
As a refresher, here are the criteria the selection committee will use to choose the 12 programs heading to the postseason field:
Five highest ranked conference champions. Note these do not have to be the Power Four and one Group of Five. These are just the flat five best.
Seven at-large teams as determined by CFP rankings.
The top four conference champions, regardless of conference, get bye weeks.
With that said, here’s how the bracket currently stands with my Week 9 rankings:
But which teams are threatened? Let’s get into the conference races.
ACC
In Right Now: Miami, SMU*
In The Hunt: Clemson
Pray for Chaos: None
A nutty week last week has two ACC teams in the playoff field and one just on the outside. Crazy how things change in one week, isn’t it?
SMU has clinched a spot in the ACC Championship with their win over Virginia last weekend. Miami will need a win over Syracuse on the road to get the other ticket to Charlotte over Clemson.
Clemson looks like the odd team out, but I have the Tigers ranked at 13 just on the outside of the field. If someone above them slips up or gets embarrassed in a conference title game, Clemson could sneak in. Plus, a season-closing Palmetto Bowl against my No. 17 South Carolina is the end of season resume builder they need to leap frog just one opponent.
Remaining Games: South Carolina at Clemson (Nov. 30 - 12 p.m.), California at SMU (Nov. 30 - 3:30 p.m.) Miami at Syracuse (Nov. 30 - 3:30 p.m.)
Big Ten
In Right Now: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon*, Penn State
In The Hunt: None
Pray for Chaos: None
We played the tiebreaker game about who gets into the conference championship in the Week 12 Bracketology post, so we don’t need to get into it now. Right now, it’s Ohio State joining Oregon unless Michigan pulls some Michigan against Ryan Day nonsense.
To recap the tiebreaker game from then, which only kicks in if Michigan beats Ohio State, Penn State would advance over Indiana to the Big Ten Championship.
I think all four teams here are as close to locks as you get in a 12-team field, so the only thing up for grabs is the bye spot. That’ll be decided on the field at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Remaining Games: Michigan at Ohio State (Nov. 30 - 12 p.m.), Maryland at Penn State (Nov. 30 - 3:30 p.m.), Purdue at Indiana (Nov. 30 - 7 p.m.), Washington at Oregon (Nov. 30 - 7:30 p.m.)
Big 12
In Right Now: Arizona State*
In The Hunt: Iowa State
Pray for Chaos: BYU, Colorado
The Big 12 has descended into total glorious chaos and are kind of in danger of missing out on a bid, but I think they can snag the 12th seed and the fifth conference champion spot.
Again, we ran the tiebreaker game last week, so we’ve got an idea of the two teams that are in the conference championship right now: Arizona State and Iowa State. The winner most likely moves on, so we can count the Big 12 Championship Game as the first College Football Playoff Game of the 12-team era.
Based on my rankings, BYU and Colorado have both fallen too far - Nos. 18 and 22 respectively - to challenge for an at-large bid. So they’ll need one of Arizona State or Iowa State to lose to get into the Big 12 Championship and have a shot. However, if either BYU or Colorado wins and is the conference champion, that could open the door for someone like, oh, I don’t know, Tulane?
The Big 12 has announced there are a whopping nine teams that are in the hunt for the Big 12 Championship Game. I’ll let the Big 12 and Ross Dellenger break that mess down for you:
Remaining Games: Kansas at Baylor (Nov. 30 - 12 p.m.), West Virginia at Texas Tech (Nov. 30 - 12 p.m.), Arizona State at Arizona (Nov. 30, 3:30 p.m.), TCU at Cincinnati (Nov. 30 - 6 p.m.), Kansas State at Iowa State (Nov. 30, 7:30 p.m.), BYU at Houston (Nov. 30 - 10:15 p.m.).
SEC
In Right Now: Georgia, Tennessee, Texas*
In The Hunt: South Carolina, Texas A&M
Pray for Chaos: Alabama, Ole Miss
This was a nightmare week for the SEC and seriously opens up the window for the league to only land one or two teams in the field. It’s unlikely, but still a possibility.
The SEC race got cleaned up some by those pesky two-loss teams taking losses, but there’s opportunity for plenty of chaos still. Texas is in the SEC Championship if they win, but who joins them?
There isn’t really too much up to chance here, the winner of Texas-Texas A&M will go to the SEC Championship against Georgia. The Dawgs have closed their SEC slate, so Tennessee is eliminated from the conference race.
That leaves four SEC teams that need at-large bids to get in. I have Tennessee in already with only two losses. South Carolina is 8-3, but the inverse of what we talked about with Clemson is true for the Gamecocks - a win over Clemson this weekend and a little chaos above them in the rankings might get South Carolina in.
As for the chaos tier, they’re here solely based on their rankings - Nos. 15 and 16 in my Top 25 despite their three losses. Personally, I think their third loss eliminates them, but if South Carolina is allowed to hang around, why not Alabama and Ole Miss? To be clear, they’d need a ton of chaos to get in, but this has been the most chaotic season since probably the 2007 mess. It could happen. But it’s very unlikely.
Remaining Games: Mississippi State at Ole Miss (Nov. 29 - 3:30 p.m.), Georgia Tech at Georgia (Nov. 29 - 7:30 p.m.), Tennessee at Vanderbilt (Nov. 30 - 12 p.m.), South Carolina at Clemson (Nov. 30 - 12 p.m.), Auburn at Alabama (Nov. 30 - 3:30 p.m.), Texas at Texas A&M (Nov. 30 - 7:30 p.m.).
FBS Independents/PAC-12
In Right Now: Notre Dame
In The Hunt: None
Pray for Chaos: None
This is probably the easiest grouping here to sort through. If Notre Dame beats USC, they’re in. If they lose, they’re probably out or at the very least, on the bubble.
Remaining Game: Notre Dame at USC (Nov. 30 - 3:30 p.m.)
Group of Five
In Right Now: Boise State*
In The Hunt: Army, Tulane*, UNLV
Pray for Chaos: None
Boise State keeps climbing the ranks, but I’m worried about the Broncos, who have been slumping as of late. Especially with Colorado State taking a dive and opening up a Mountain West Championship rematch on the Smurf Turf against UNLV, this is as dire as Boise State’s playoff standing is.
There’s really just two teams in the hunt behind the Broncos: the American champion and UNLV. Army and Tulane have both locked in spots in the American Conference Championship, so that will get sorted out and the winner will move on. UNLV gets their shot at Boise and, with how closely I have those three teams ranked, a UNLV win should put them at top dog.
Conference USA, the MAC and the Sun Belt have been eliminated, even if there is a wild, improbable and bordering on impossible scenario for Louisiana to get in.
Remaining Games: Memphis at Tulane (Nov. 28 - 7:30 p.m.), Oregon State at Boise State (Nov. 29 - 12 p.m.), UTSA at Army (Nov. 30 - 12 p.m.), Nevada at UNLV (Nov. 30 - 8 p.m.)
What I’m Reading:
Three-Point Stance by Tyler Schuster: Three-Point Stance is your favorite independent college football newsletter. Come for in-depth analysis and bold commentary, stay for the jokes and memes. An idea hatched after years of 12-hour days glued to the couch, Tyler Schuster puts his passion for the sport on full display, delivering big-picture ideas, weekly previews and gambling nuggets directly to your inbox.
An idea hatched after years of 12-hour days glued to the couch, Tyler Schuster puts his passion for the sport on full display, delivering big-picture ideas, weekly previews and gambling nuggets directly to your inbox.
, , and : I’ll be a little selfish on this one and plug a great college football podcast that I was lucky enough to join the show last week to talk UEC and SID Sports! Brian, John, Gary and I had some great conversations about the state of the sport, playoff races and picked some games. Be sure to tune into the Tailgators' Setup podcast and subscribe for more great content from them!Split Zone Duo by Alex Kirshner, Steven Godfrey, and Richard Johnson: You can't beat Alex, Richard and Godfrey. They're on the front lines breaking news and creating the best content in the game. I 100 percent recommend SZD for anyone into college football and Steven Godfrey hating your team. They’re mostly a podcast publication, but sometimes being able to listen to three well-informed guys talking about college football is what you need in your life.
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