CFB Bracketology: Week 13
Breaking down conference and at-large races with playoff stakes
You know, I was under the impression that as we progressed through the season, the playoff picture would become clearer. That’s not been the case. In fact, it’s only gotten muddier. Sure, there are less teams vying for spots, but the teams that are in the hunt are very much jockeying for seeding or even a spot at the dance.
One thing’s clear: this 12-team format is much more entertaining than the four-team. As a refresher, here are the criteria the selection committee will use to choose the 12 programs heading to the postseason field:
Five highest ranked conference champions. Note these do not have to be the Power Four and one Group of Five. These are just the flat five best.
Seven at-large teams as determined by CFP rankings.
The top four conference champions, regardless of conference, get bye weeks.
With that said, here’s how the bracket currently stands with my Week 13 rankings:
But which teams are threatened? Let’s get into the conference races.
ACC
In Right Now: SMU*
In The Hunt: Miami, Clemson
Pray for Chaos: None
The Ponies survive another week and are holding firm to a bye right now. Virginia this week could catch them off guard, but they still need to win out to fully clinch a trip to the conference championship
Miami and Clemson both sit with one in-conference loss and are battling for that second spot. Miami is also in reach of an at-large bid, but if they slip up and let Clemson in, they likely won’t be in a place to get that at-large bid. Clemson’s ACC slate is done, so everything boils down to Miami. The Canes have Wake Forest this week and Syracuse to close the schedule. I think the Orange are the clear better of the two. Miami’s win over Louisville is the tiebreaker over Clemson, so Miami controls their own destiny.
Biggest Remaining Games: SMU at Virginia (Nov. 23), Miami at Syracuse (Nov. 30)
Big Ten
In Right Now: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon*, Penn State
In The Hunt: None
Pray for Chaos: None
We really went over everything last week, so I won’t get too into the Big Ten weeds here.
The battle for a bye, though, is completely up for grabs. Oregon has locked in its spot in the Big Ten Conference Championship. The winner of Indiana and Ohio State likely gets the other spot. Penn State would get in if Indiana loses to Ohio State and the Buckeyes fall to Michigan.
I really thought about putting Oregon in a new “Lock” tier, but it’s possible the Ducks get left out if they lose to Washington and lose in spectacular fashion in the Big Ten Championship. Unlikely, but we have to cover all our bases here.
Biggest Remaining Game: Indiana at Ohio State (Nov. 23), Michigan at Ohio State (Nov. 30), Washington at Oregon (Nov. 30)
Big 12
In Right Now: BYU*
In The Hunt: Colorado
Pray for Chaos: Arizona State, Iowa State
BYU’s tumble really put the Big 12 in jeopardy of getting into the dance. If someone like Arizona State or Iowa State runs the table and there’s some funny Group of Five chaos (looking at you, Army), the conference could be on the outside looking in.
But let’s stay in the present. Right now, Colorado and BYU are the two in the Big 12 Conference Championship, but a loss by either will open us up to glorious tiebreaker chaos. (Aside: Seems like we should settle these all on the field right? Maybe smaller conferences where you play everyone, but who am I kidding)
So let’s play the tiebreaker game. Again, all predictions are based on ESPN’s FPI (BYU loss scenario is an Arizona State win over the Cougars, Colorado loss scenario is to Kansas):
Tiebreaker 1: Head-to-head record
BYU Loss: Arizona State win over BYU, Iowa State with no head-to-head games. Move to Tiebreaker 2
Colorado Loss: No head-to-head games between the three tied teams (Arizona State, Colorado, Iowa State). Move to Tiebreaker 2
Both Loss: Arizona State win over BYU, Colorado and Iowa State with no head-to-head games. Move to Tiebreaker 2
Tiebreaker 2: Win percentage against all common conference opponents
BYU Loss: Arizona State is 3-0 against Kansas, UCF, and Utah while BYU and Iowa State are 2-1. Arizona State Advances.
Colorado Loss: Colorado is 5-0 against common opponents, both Arizona State and Iowa State are 3-2. Colorado Advances.
Both Loss: Arizona State is 3-0 against Kansas, UCF, and Utah while BYU, Colorado and Iowa State are 2-1. Arizona State Advances, Move to Tiebreaker 3 for second team.
Tiebreaker 3: Win percentage against the next highest-placed common opponent in the standings, proceeding through the standings
Kansas: BYU, Colorado and Iowa State loss. Next Team.
UCF: BYU, Colorado and Iowa State win. Next Team.
Utah: BYU, Colorado and Iowa State win. Move to Tiebreaker 4.
Tiebreaker 4: Combined in percentage in conference games of conference opponents
Iowa State has a 48.3 opponent winning percentage of conference opponents compared to BYU’s 42.3 and Colorado’s 36.5. Iowa State advances.
Biggest Remaining Games: BYU at Arizona State (Nov. 23), Colorado at Kansas (Nov. 23), Kansas State at Iowa State (Nov. 30)
SEC
In Right Now: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas*
In The Hunt: Tennessee, Texas A&M
Pray for Chaos: South Carolina
There’s still four SEC teams getting into the latest edition of the dance, but Georgia’s win over Tennessee vaults the Dawgs into an at-large spot and puts the Vols squarely in the bubble.
All six of the teams in the hunt or in right now are within reach of a conference title, likely with some two-loss tiebreakers deciding the second team into the pool. There’s a lot to get into with that, but let’s play the game. The only variable we’ll use now is who wins the season-closing Lone Star Showdown, which will punch the ticket for one of the teams, either Texas or Texas A&M
Tiebreaker 1: Head-to-head results
Texas Win: Not enough head-to-head games to determine. Move to Tiebreaker 2.
Texas A&M Win: Not enough head-to-head games to determine. Move to Tiebreaker 2.
Tiebreaker 2: Record versus all common Conference opponents
Texas Win: Believe it or not, there are zero common conference opponents in this scenario. Move to Tiebreaker 3.
Texas A&M Win: Believe it or not, there are zero common conference opponents in this scenario. Move to Tiebreaker 3.
Tiebreaker 3: Record against highest (best) place common Conference opponent
For both scenarios, with no common conference opponents among all tied teams, we have to move on. Move to Tiebreaker 4.
Tiebreaker 4: Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents
Texas Win: Alabama has the best conference opponent winning percentage at 50.9. Trailing them are Georgia (45.1 percent), Texas A&M (44.2 percent), Ole Miss (42.3 percent) and Tennessee (39.6 percent). Alabama Advances.
Texas A&M Win: Alabama has the best conference opponent winning percentage at 50.9. Trailing them are Georgia (45.1 percent), Ole Miss (42.3 percent), Texas (41.52 percent) and Tennessee (39.6 percent). Alabama Advances.
South Carolina doesn’t have a shot at the SEC Title Game, but can sneak in with an at-large bid, especially if they take it to Clemson in the Palmetto Bowl.
Biggest Remaining Games: Auburn at Texas A&M (Nov. 23), Alabama at Auburn (Nov. 30), South Carolina at Clemson (Nov. 30), Texas at Texas A&M (Nov. 30)
FBS Independents/PAC-12
In Right Now: Notre Dame
In The Hunt: None
Pray for Chaos: None
Like always, Notre Dame is holding onto a playoff spot with an at-large bid. The Irish’s final ranked matchup against Army looms this weekend, while a season-closing rivalry game against USC could present a challenge. Win both of those and Notre Dame punches their ticket.
Biggest Remaining Games: Army at Notre Dame (Nov. 23)
Group of Five
In Right Now: Boise State*
In The Hunt: Army*, Tulane
Pray for Chaos: UNLV
Boise State capitalizes on some Big 12 chaos and has moved into a bye week position. Right now, the Broncos have an easy path to their bye spot, but a potential Mountain West title rematch against UNLV is going to be tough. Colorado State, a much worse team, is currently holding that other Mountain West Conference Championship bid, but a tough matchup against Fresno State could knock the Running Rebels ahead.
Behind Boise, the American conference champion is most likely to get to the playoff. They may even make a run for two Group of Five conference champions getting in if Army can beat Notre Dame this weekend. I think Tulane’s the better of the two teams, but they’re both locked into the conference championship.
Louisiana’s loss last week to South Alabama killed their playoff chances, leaving the Sun Belt, CUSA and MAC on the outside of the first 12-team field.
What I’m Reading:
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An idea hatched after years of 12-hour days glued to the couch, Tyler Schuster puts his passion for the sport on full display, delivering big-picture ideas, weekly previews and gambling nuggets directly to your inbox.
, , and : I’ll be a little selfish on this one and plug a great college football podcast that I was lucky enough to appear on this week to talk UEC and SID Sports! Brian, John, Gary and I had some great conversations about the state of the sport, playoff races and picked some games this weekend. Be sure to tune into this week’s Tailgators' Setup podcast and subscribe for more great content from them!Split Zone Duo by Alex Kirshner, Steven Godfrey, and Richard Johnson: You can't beat Alex, Richard and Godfrey. They're on the front lines breaking news and creating the best content in the game. I 100 percent recommend SZD for anyone into college football and Steven Godfrey hating your team. They’re mostly a podcast publication, but sometimes being able to listen to three well-informed guys talking about college football is what you need in your life.
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