CFB Bracketology: Week 12
Breaking down conference and at-large races with playoff stakes
The conference races are now full of filthy cannibals, terrorizing the higher ranked teams and tossing a hand grenade into our well-curated weekly playoff rankings and opinions. But that’s the way we like it, isn’t it? The pure chaos of an expanded playoff race has been immensely fun to watch so far. So who’s in? And who’s waiting in the wings?
As a refresher, here are the criteria the selection committee will use to choose the 12 programs heading to the postseason field:
Five highest ranked conference champions. Note these do not have to be the Power Four and one Group of Five. These are just the flat five best.
Seven at-large teams as determined by CFP rankings.
The top four conference champions, regardless of conference, get bye weeks.
With that said, here’s how the bracket currently stands with my Week 12 rankings:
But which teams are threatened? Let’s get into the conference races.
ACC
In Right Now: SMU*
In The Hunt: Miami, Clemson
Pray for Chaos: Louisville
The Ponies, perfect aside from a close loss to BYU, sit alone atop the ACC in their first ever season in the league. With a light end to the schedule, they’re a near lock to get to Charlotte for the ACC title game.
Miami and Clemson are both sitting with one loss in conference and don’t face each other to determine who gets to Charlotte. Unless one of them trips up at some point, we’re heading to the tiebreakers. If both teams win out, the first tiebreaker of record against common opponents puts Miami on top at 4-0 compared to Clemson’s 3-1, with the loss to Louisville damning the Tigers.
Louisville is a long shot for a ACC championship or an at-large berth, but stay with me here. It’s tin foil hat season. Louisville would need a conference champion auto-bid to get in. With two losses and a loss to Miami on the docket, the most likely scenario is Clemson losing to Pittsburgh and Miami losing to both Wake Forest and Syracuse. It’s unlikely, but that would put Miami at three losses below the Cardinals’ two and tie Clemson and Louisville. Remember that Louisville win that screwed up Clemson’s shot at the ACC Championship last paragraph? Yeah, that gets the Cardinals in on this scenario. But a win by either Miami or Clemson this week eliminates Louisville.
Biggest Remaining Games: Clemson at Pittsburgh (Nov. 16), Pittsburgh at Louisville (Nov. 23), Miami at Syracuse (Nov. 30)
Big Ten
In Right Now: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon*, Penn State
In The Hunt: None
Pray for Chaos: None
The Big Ten has all but wrapped up its playoff hunt, with these four programs likely to get in. Now, the race turns to the auto-bid and first round bye.
Indiana and Oregon control their destinies with perfect 7-0 league records and not seeing each other in the regular season. If they win out, they’ll meet in Indianapolis for the conference title.
Ohio State has the next best odds, with a game at Ohio Stadium next weekend against Indiana. With a win already over Penn State, the Buckeyes would then jump into the conference title race against Oregon.
For Penn State to get in, they’d need to win out first. Then, they’d need Ohio State to lose to either Indiana or Michigan, preferably to the Wolverines (plus, could you imagine the memes if Ohio State lost another edition of The Game?). At that point, their loss to Ohio State wouldn’t matter. Then, a loss by either Oregon or Indiana would kick Penn State into a tiebreaker scenario. Here’s how it would break down with projections by ESPN FPI for future games (Indiana losing to Ohio State, Oregon losing to Wisconsin):
Tiebreaker 1: Record against common conference opponents
Tie with Oregon: PSU 5-0, Oregon 4-1. Penn State Advances
Tie with Indiana: PSU: 4-1, Indiana 4-1. Move to Tiebreaker 2
Tie with Both: PSU 4-1, Oregon 4-1, Indiana 4-1 Move to Tiebreaker 2
Tiebreaker 2: Record against common opponents with the best common record
Tie with Indiana: Both loss to Ohio State, Both wins over Wisconsin, Both wins over Washington, Both wins over UCLA, Both wins over Purdue. Move to Tiebreaker 3
Tie with Both: Oregon win over Ohio State, PSU/Indiana loss to Ohio State. Oregon Advances. Indiana and Penn State tie the rest of the way. Move to Tiebreaker 3 for final spot v. Oregon
Tiebreaker 3: Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents
Tie with Indiana: PSU Opponents - 70.57 winning percentage; Indiana Opponents - 51.45 winning percentage. Penn State Advances
Tie with Both: PSU Opponents - 70.57 winning percentage; Indiana Opponents - 51.45 winning percentage. Penn State Advances
Biggest Remaining Game: Indiana at Ohio State (Nov. 23)
Big 12
In Right Now: BYU*
In The Hunt: Colorado
Pray for Chaos: Arizona State, Iowa State, Kansas State
The Big 12 is still full of chaos, but the picture is growing a little cleared. And it’ll stay that way as long as BYU keeps winning. With an unbeaten record, they’re off to Jerryworld. I think this conference’s hopes run through the autobid, so the conference championship will be a massive game.
Right now, Colorado is joining the Cougars with only one conference loss. Winning out and claiming the Big 12 crown gets them in.
Past that, is the chaos tier. Arizona State faces BYU, so a win there and another Cougar loss gets the Sun Devils to the conference championship. Iowa State doesn’t see either BYU or Colorado, so winning out and hoping for one Buffalo loss or two Cougar losses to force a tiebreaker is their only hope. Kansas State has a win over Colorado, so if the Buffaloes slip up, Kansas State can jump right in.
Biggest Remaining Games: Kansas State at Arizona State (Nov. 16), BYU at Arizona State (Nov. 23), Kansas State at Iowa State (Nov. 30)
SEC
In Right Now: Alabama, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas*
In The Hunt: Georgia, Texas A&M
Pray for Chaos: LSU
The SEC charts four teams in right now, but the conference championship is still completely undecided. It’s possible a Lone Star Showdown between Texas and Texas A&M might be a play-in to the SEC Championship.
Georgia isn’t going to make the trip to Atlanta for the first time since 2020, so their hopes rest on an at-large bid. With my rankings slotting them in at 15 and the CFP putting them at 12, a little chaos will get them in. Texas A&M is out of the field, but winning out would include a win over Texas and get them into the SEC Championship, likely cementing their spot in the field.
I know we touted Alabama-LSU as an elimination game, but the Tigers technically still aren’t out. They’d need a lot to happen, though. Like, let’s say, Alabama and Texas A&M losing out in SEC play, Georgia beating Tennessee, and a win over Texas in the conference championship. Told you it was a lot, especially when you’re counting on two top-10 upsets from Auburn, but it’s still possible so they’re here.
Biggest Remaining Games: Tennessee at Georgia (Nov. 16), Auburn at Texas A&M (Nov. 23), Alabama at Auburn (Nov. 30), Texas at Texas A&M (Nov. 30)
FBS Independents/PAC-12
In Right Now: Notre Dame
In The Hunt: None
Pray for Chaos: None
The Fighting Irish are holding onto a spot with chaos around them. I don’t think their lack of conference will hurt them, especially as wins over Louisville and Texas A&M keep getting better.
Washington State is all but eliminated after Texas Tech’s loss to Colorado. The Cougars are ranked high enough to threaten to get in, but their poor schedule makes that a near impossibility.
Biggest Remaining Games: Army at Notre Dame (11/23)
Group of Five
In Right Now: Boise State*
In The Hunt: Army*, Tulane
Pray for Chaos: Louisiana*
Hear me out, but Boise State could play their way into a bye. Crazy, right? All it takes is a BYU loss or two and the Broncos can avoid playing at all in the first round. With Ashton Jeanty and Maddux Madsen leading a very efficient offense, I’m not worried about them winning out.
Still, the major threat to Boise State’s path to the playoff is the American champion. If Army notches a win over Notre Dame and takes the conference crown, they’ll likely get in over the Broncos. If Notre Dame takes the win, which is more than likely, then the American’s hopes rest on a Boise loss. Either one of Tulane or Army would likely jump in at that point, but it’ll be close.
Louisiana still sits in the wings, but a head-to-head loss to Tulane makes it incredibly difficult for the Sun Belt to get a nod. They’d need the American race to fall apart at the seams to ignore the head-to-head loss to Tulane and if they want to catch Boise State, they’ll need the Broncos to falter as well. It’s a long road, but one the Ragin’ Cajuns can walk and hope for.
The CUSA and MAC are out of the running.
What I’m Reading:
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If Army is ranked over Colorado (like they should be in real life, and I think they are if I remember your rankings from earlier this week), this sets up a very fun (to a neutral fan like me) scenario of the Big 12 having to pray for an undefeated BYU to get into the playoff at all if Army wins out. If we fast forward three weeks and Colorado has beaten BYU and Army has defeated Notre Dame, I consider that a more impressive win for Army. I don't think it's controversial to say Notre Dame is better than BYU. I don't know how you'd rank it, but I don't think the Buffaloes would pass Army at any point during this chain of events.
That would likely put Army in the bye (Army!), likely even above the ACC given the strength of wins, with a possible exception if the ACC championship has a blowout winner. Boise State, Indiana, Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon will have done nothing to drop out. Whoever wins the SEC will take a top two spot. The ACC is only getting one of SMU or Miami. Notre Dame will have left the bracket obviously, replaced by Army. Tennessee is touch and go with that Georgia game. Even if they lose it, they would only fall into the fight below.
This leaves one loss Big 12 champion Colorado in a straight fight with all the SEC teams (Miss, Alabama, Georgia if they win, Tennessee if they lose etc.) for an at large spot, a fight that I'm not sure they can win. Maybe a win over BYU would change your opinion over whether they win a straight fight with Boise, but I don't know why that would be the case. One single win over an indeterminately strong BYU team shouldn't swing things that much, at least not to me. Over Alabama it would, but not BYU. Maybe if Tennessee beats Georgia and SMU beats Miami (getting them both out of the way) there could be a path for a one loss Colorado in there to an at-large bid.
What do you think? With a ranking that puts Army over Colorado, I think the entire Big 12 is in a really tricky position right now, praying either that BYU will just keep winning, or that leaving a Big 12 champ out of the playoff is just so sacrilegious that the ranking body (in this case, yourself) just chooses to change their mind and put them in there over one of the SEC teams.
I know you said the teams are fighting for the Big 12 auto-bid, but using your rankings as a base, I'm not so sure the Big 12 has an auto-bid secured just yet. They've secured one if it's for BYU, but not for just anybody. This is all for fun of course, as the conference will secure one when Notre Dame in all likelihood defeats Army at home, but imagine if they don't. In this fictional world we're living in here, it'd turn the whole sport upside down if Colorado were to defeat BYU and take the whole conference out of the playoffs.