3 Comments
Nov 19·edited Nov 19Liked by Griffin Olah

SMU at five huh? That's the type of thing that makes you yearn for the days of the four team playoff...

That's only partly a joke. I think this season would've lined up really well for a four team playoff. Not for Boise State or Army, but yes for everybody else. Oregon would go, the winner of Ohio State-Indiana would go. The winner of the SEC would go as long as it's Texas, Alabama, or Georgia (I don't disrespect Ole Miss, but I suspect the committee would), and we'd probably have to grit our teeth and take SMU and their four one possession games to get killed by somebody in the first round.

I do like that the big playoff allows teams like Boise State and Army to get their chances, but I dislike almost everything else about it. There are not 12 playoff calibre teams in the country right now, at least under the definition of what a 'playoff team' used to mean. Considering we'd likely have to allow SMU in, there are not even four. Even the three vs two game on Saturday has a ten point spread to go with it. Quite honestly, college football has done little to convince me that the championship sequence ever needed to expand beyond two teams.

This year proves it even further. There's some fun stuff going on, but only two and a half truly great teams (we'll see on Indiana). All the rest is just fluff that is likely going to prevent us from seeing those two truly great teams play each other again. I'm not a fan of rematches, but the two best teams in the country (barring any Hoosier interference) are the two best teams in the country. I'd rather that in a BCS National Championship than whatever mess we're going to get this year.

In other news, I like that you agree with my 'Big 12 needs an undefeated BYU' hypothesis. I did not have any faith for that to happen, and it didn't, so now in our little fictional world here, that conference holds its breath, crosses their fingers, and prays for the Fighting Irish to save their bacon. I don't know what to make of Clemson. A 10+ point loss so recently plants a bad taste in my mouth that is still there.

Same goes for the Green Wave. I've been on the underdog train a lot this season, so all I can say is that I wish I liked Tulane more than I do. Their one score loss to Kansas State is sinking right now in terms of how acceptable it was, and the Oklahoma game is putrid looking back on it. Looking at their numbers, the Green Wave are a defensive team through and through, and they rely on a low success rate, high production (in other words, explosive) pass offence. They do run more than they pass, but their rush game is nothing to write home about.

Both defence (in general) and explosive offence tend not to track when you get into the games against the better schools. In other words, Tulane has all the signs that Army lacks, of being a team that won't stand up to a tougher level of competition than the American in my opinion. This doesn't make their 20th place ranking unacceptable or anything. They have had a great few weeks, but I don't even know if I could pick them to beat Army, let alone any team outside of the American.

I would pick them to beat Arizona State though. The Sun Devils are a team that are exceptional in their ability to not be great at anything. Their pass offence is meh. Their defence is kind of meh. Their rush offence is really good still though.. They just keep winning the games. If this team somehow makes the Big 12 championship, I plan on laughing pretty hard, and really hoping for them to win it. As long as we keep in mind that this is a team that's played six (!) one possession games this year, and are not truly a contender for anything, even if they win the Big 12, we can enjoy watching their ride.

Good rankings as always buddy! I'll be cheering really hard for both Indiana and Army on Saturday. with any luck, we can blow this thing wide open!

Expand full comment
author

I'm right there with you in Army and Indiana's corners, buddy! This is for all the underdogs!

The four team would be much cleaner this year, like you pointed out. In fact, most conference championship games would be de facto playoff ones in a four team field, which was always fun. I'm glad we got that enshrined in with teh 12 team.

SMU's a weird team where they haven't really played anyone, but their only loss is to BYU (quality loss!). But they've been really good this year. Not quite Indiana good, but the Ponies are balling out. They've had some close calls, but turn out and make the plays they need to win. To me, that's a mark of a good team.

I really like Tulane. They should've beat Kansas State if it wasn't for some spotty officiating in the final seconds, but that Oklahoma loss, like you said, is horrid. I think they're better than Army and have showed that in conference play and against teams over .500. If they were playing head-to-head, I'm gonna disagree and say Tulane likely takes the win based on how they're playing right now. Bryson Daily being fully healthy changes that tune some, but Tulane's got a great defense.

Arizona State's been a fun ride for sure, but they're playing with fire. I don't think they'll get to the Big 12 title game or make much noise, but you have to give them credit for the outstanding jump from year 1 to 2 under Kenny Dillingham. But all those one-score games make it very plausible they come back down to earth as a 7-5 team in 2025.

Either way with all of this, Go Hoosiers! And get Kurtis Rourke to New York!

Expand full comment

Interesting. I've been hedging really hard on Army. I speak like I'm quite sure on them, but I'm really not. Their underlying metrics just look better than Tulane's. Tulane did require a one score game to beat North Texas, who Army was able to hold to just three points, so if you're interested in triangle theories, Army looks pretty good there. I'm not, but some people are.

I would be willing to bet on Army to defeat Tulane right now, but I wouldn't put very much on it, and you're right that Tulane has looked fantastic since that North Texas game at the end of October. I think the American championship is as close as can be to a coin flip, and other than probably the B1G (because, as we know, it will feature Indiana) that's the championship game I'll be paying the closest attention to.

Expand full comment