2024 Games of the Slot: Week 12
Breaking down which game to watch at each time slot this weekend
The weeks left in the regular season are ticking down, which often means major conference tilts and serious playoff implications. Especially with the expanded 12-team field, more teams than every are vying for their shot at a College Football Playoff National Championship.
And that’s not including conference races, many of which are going down to the wire and needing tiebreakers in this new divisionless College Football World.
But what games are the most consequential this week and when do you need to watch them? Let’s break it down. As always, all times are in Eastern.
Friday Night
Game of the Slot: UCLA at Washington (9 p.m., FOX)
The first year in the Big Ten hasn’t gone according to plan for either of these teams, but with bowl eligibility on the line, this is still a very consequential game.
The visiting Bruins were written off early in the season, but have rattled off three straight solid wins in-conference. UCLA’s offense is much improved in that stretch with better play from quarterback Ethan Garbers. There still isn’t much of a rushing attack in Los Angeles, but Garbers is playing well enough to beat some in-conference teams on Washington’s tier.
For Washington, the Huskies are sitting at 5-5 just one season after a national championship run that ultimately came up short. Yes, most every main contributor and coach departed in the offseason, but I thought the Huskies did a good job retooling. Things just haven’t worked out in Seattle. They’ll need to have short memories after a 35-6 white out walloping by Penn State last week, but I think Will Rogers and company are capable of that.
Either way, expect a ton of passing and a ton of points in this contest.
Multi-Box Games: North Texas at UTSA (8 p.m., ESPN2), Houston at Arizona (10:15 p.m., FS1), Wyoming at Colorado State (8 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
It’s a rivalry that’s nonexistent on the national stage, but North Texas and UTSA really don’t like each other. Both are battling for bowl eligibility and have lost three of their last five, but solid quarterback play should make this interesting. Houston and Arizona programs are in opposite trajectories under first year head coaches. Houston is trending positive after a great stretch from the Cougars under Willy Fritz, while Brent Brennan’s Wildcats are a sputtering disappointment outside of Tetairoa McMillan. Friday night closes with a surprisingly solid Colorado State team that’s unbeaten in Mountain West play. If the Rams win out, which is a strong possibility, they’ll be set up for a playoff spoiler game against Boise State in the Mountain West Championship.
Saturday - 12 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: 20 Clemson at Pittsburgh (ESPN)
This game really boils down to Pittsburgh’s offense against Clemson’s defense.
The Tiger defense isn’t the elite unit you’re used to, but they’re still incredibly talented. The scoring effort doesn’t show that, with Clemson ranking 59th in the nation with 23.1 points allowed per game. Still, edge rusher T.J. Parker has been a menace and linebacker Barrett Carter is one of the nation’s best. Their offense, when it’s on, can keep pace with anyone, but the key here is shutting down the Pittsburgh offense.
That’s been much easier as of late, with the Panthers dropping two straight after a 7-0 start vaulted them into the playoff conversation. Those losses have been in tandem with a dramatic fall off in quarterback Eli Holstein’s play. He’s still a freshman, so is growing into his role, but Pitt needs more from him to get a big win over Clemson. I’d like to see tailback Desmond Reid more involved in the gameplan, but the onus this week will be on if Holstein is up to the task.
Multi-Box Games: 23 Tulane at Navy (ESPN2), Utah at 18 Colorado (FOX), 5 Texas at Arkansas (ABC/ESPN+)
We’ll head to the Group of Five for what factors as an American Conference Championship play-in-game. Tulane and Navy sit second and third in the league with the winner likely heading to face Army for the conference title. Both will look to pound the rock, but momentum is on Tulane’s side. The Green Wave have been very sneakily beating the brakes off of their recent opponents while Navy has dropped two straight. Utah almost pulled off a major upset over BYU last week and they’ll get another chance this week against Colorado. I’m really excited to see how Shedeur Sanders and the Buffalo offense performs against a solid Ute defense. Texas is a heavy favorite against Arkansas, but the Hogs have done things like this before (see: win over Tennessee). It’ll be stress test for the Texas defense to stop dual threat Taylen Green and tailback JaQuinden Jackson. Arkansas’ defense has also shown it can win in the trenches against Tennessee, so Texas will need quick, decisive decision making from Quinn Ewers.
3-4 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: Missouri at 24 South Carolina (4:15 p.m., SEC Network)
As improbable as it sounds, this is somehow a ranked matchup by the CFP Committee’s rankings.
I don’t have Missouri ranked, mostly because they’ve looked flat all season, moreso with Brady Cook out and Drew Pyne in under center. Against this ruthless Gamecock front seven, I’m not feeling great about that matchup for Mizzou. I expect wideouts Theo Wease Jr. and Luther Burden III to work the short game to try to account for South Carolina’s pass rush and try to generate yards after the catch.
For South Carolina, edge rushers Kyle Kennard and Dylan Stewart are as good a pair as you can find in the nation and will need to get after Pyne early and often. On offense, it’ll be up to LaNorris Sellers and Raheim Sanders to pound the rock on a suspect Tiger defense. I think South Carolina looks better in this matchup on paper, but Sellers has been up and down this season and dealing with nagging injuries. If he’s fully healthy and ready to go, I expect the Gamecocks to run through Missouri.
Multi-Box Games: Baylor at West Virginia (4 p.m., ESPN2), 22 LSU at Florida (3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+), Nebraska at USC (4 p.m., FOX)
It’s not as big of an anxiety bowl as last season, but Baylor and West Virginia are both in interesting spots. Baylor has potentially played Dave Aranda into another season in charge, while West Virginia is sitting just outside of reach of the Big 12 Championship. With backup Nicco Marchiol likely to start again, West Virginia is in do or die mode. Speaking of do or die, LSU is holding onto the narrowest thread to get into the SEC Championship and the playoff. That means winning against a plucky Florida team and hoping for some chaos to reap the tiebreakers. Over in the Big Ten, Nebraska and USC are getting a lot of noise about their much hyped coaching hires. I think Nebraska is in a better spot with the talented true freshman Dylan Raiola working in the system. He’s not been great, but perhaps the arrival of Dana Holgorsen to lead the offense can spark something in him. USC, though, has been downright bad and will move away from Miller Moss to UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava to hopefully salvage a bowl bid. Not what you want to see from a team with playoff aspirations, but hey, at least the defense is better?
Wondering where these rankings are coming from? Check out this week’s SID Sports Top 25 and Players of the Week!
6-8 p.m. EST
Game of the Slot: 6 Tennessee at 15 Georgia (7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)
Make no mistake, this is the big ticket game this week. It’s being billed as an elimination game, but I’m not so sure about that.
Especially for one-loss Tennessee. We’ve seen two-loss teams hang around - I even have two in my playoff field this week - so a loss to Georgia isn’t going to tank Tennessee’s playoff hopes, but it’ll certainly make it more difficult. I think the Volunteers are going to be able to run the ball well with Dylan Sampson, but can Nico Iamaleava succeed through the air while battling through concussion protocol to even get on the field? Georgia is planning to see Iamaleava, but if they’re forced to roll with backup Gaston Moore this gets a lot more difficult.
It’s also going to be difficult for the Georgia offense against a stout Tennessee unit. Dawgs quarterback Carson Beck has struggled as of late, especially against pressure. Unfortunately for him, Tennessee can bring the heat with a pass rush led by first-round NFL prospect James Pearce Jr. Four Vols, including Pearce, have multiple sacks this season so if Georgia goes all out to try to slow down Pearce and give Beck time, Tennessee is going to dial up pressure from other spots. The Volunteers rank ninth in the nation in rushing defense too, so Beck has to get past the ghosts he’s seeing or Georgia is sunk this season.
Multi-Box Games: Arizona State at 21 Kansas State (7 p.m., ESPN), 12 Boise State at San Jose State (7 p.m., CBS Sports Network), 1 Oregon at Wisconsin (7:30 p.m., NBC)
Oh, you wanted an elimination game for this timeslot? Look no further than Arizona State-Kansas State in the Big 12. Both programs have similar profiles with a strong running game with a near-1,000 yard tailback and solid but shaky at times quarterback play. I like Kansas State’s defense more than Arizona State’s, but this is as even a matchup as you can find in the nation. Expect this to be full of high-stakes drama down to the last whistle. Boise State continues to roll, but they’ve got a sneaky good San Jose State team on the road this week. The Broncos have one of the nation’s most efficient offenses behind Maddux Madsen and Ashton Jeanty, but their defense is going to be tested by this Spartan offense. The connection between SJSU’s Emmett Brown and Nick Nash is possibly the best between a quarterback-receiver duo in the nation and Boise State’s defense has struggled in spots against solid passing attacks. They’ll have their hands full in this one. Finally, we get Oregon against a much improved Wisconsin team. Will the Badgers really threaten Oregon? I don’t think so, but they’re the best bet to do so before we head to the Big Ten Championship. If the Ducks are at all looking forward, they can get got here.
West Coast After Dark
Game of the Slot: Kansas at 3 BYU (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
It’s been a rough year in Lawrence, but the Jayhawks have the opportunity to play massive spoiler this week.
Kansas is coming off a solid win over Iowa State last week, showing they can hang with the perceived big boys. As usual in the Lance Leipold era, this game will depend on how Jalon Daniels plays and if Devin Neal can punish this BYU defense. That’s a big ask, as the Cougars have one of the nation’s best defensive units.
On the other hand, Kansas’s defense is not one of the nation’s best. Even if BYU struggles a bit like they did against Utah last week, they should be able to assert themselves on the Jayhawks’ defense. I still want to see more balance from the Cougars, but tailbacks L.J. Martin and Hinkley Ropati have been much more involved as of late. They can also rely on this defense to get stops. I’ve got BYU ranked higher than I think anyone else because I believe in that defensive unit and Jake Retzlaff, even moreso now that there’s a viable and dangerous rushing attack brewing.
Multi-Box Game: San Diego State at UNLV (10:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
Our final game is another Mountain West tilt with title implications. UNLV is probably the second-best team in the league, but they need Colorado State to lose in order to get into the conference championship. Before that, they have to take care of business against a schematically difficult to defend Aztec team.
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Love that the matchups are broken down by time slot. Seems like some of CFB's most wild games have come in that 6-8pm window - something about prime time bringing out peak chaos. Hopefully Tennessee-Georgia fits that pattern.
I saw on the Bottom Line that Arkansas hasn’t beaten Texas in 5 of the last 7 games?!
Have you had the feeling of we are so close yet so far away from getting playoff clarity? I know it’s year one so maybe we are all paying a little more attention with the new format, but has it ever seemed so up in the air in the second weekend of November like this or am I just completely off?
Also, in an alternate universe, if conference expansion happened before playoff expansion, and everything went chalk the next few weeks, including OSU beating Indiana to go to the B1G title game, is Penn State on the outside looking in when the final rankings are announced even if they go 11-1? So either Oregon or OSU gets in. Let’s say Texas runs the table. Tennessee/SEC winner has to be in the convo. I guess what am asking is can you write a column about how the 4-team playoff would shakeout with the mega conferences. No biggie, yanno 🤣