We need to talk about Matt Campbell's Iowa State
How two NFL breakouts change the perspective on the Cyclones
Many people say the NFL doesn’t impact college football past draft declarations. They’re wrong. There’s coaches riding careers off of successful NFL players they developed in college, even if those players didn’t perform their best in the NCAA. Programs are often have success defined by the number of NFL players they’ve developed just as much as conference and national titles.
Right now, there’s NFL impact all over the college football landscape. Just look across the Big 10, where Jim Harbaugh incessantly flirts with the pros and Matt Rhule returns to resurrect Nebraska. There are other coaches who have gotten NFL looks as well, such as Lincoln Riley. But, one looms as the most confusing NFL heir-apparent and program “architect” of all: Matt Campbell.
In case you need a refresher, Matt Campbell took over at the helm of the Cyclones in 2016 after four successful seasons running the Toledo Rockets (#MACtion baby). His final season in northwest Ohio peaked with a no. 19 AP Poll ranking and a Boca Raton Bowl win over Rhule’s No. 24 ranked Temple Owls.
Following that season, Campbell signed a six-year pact with Iowa State. He started out successfully, winning two Big 12 Coach of the Year awards and a 2021 Fiesta Bowl appearance. During the height of Campbell’s time in Ames, he started flirting with the NFL, reportedly turning down an offer to interview for the New York Jets’ head coaching job in 2018.
Now, though, Campbell heads a directionless program. After the Fiesta Bowl appearance, the Cyclones dipped to 7-6, losing the Cheez-It Bowl to the D.J. Uiagalelei-led Clemson Tigers. This past season, the hype around the program died, as Iowa State struggled to a 4-8 overall record and 1-8 conference record. Their wins came over FCS Southeast Missouri State, Ohio, the inept Iowa offense, and a West Virginia program that fired their head coach after the season.
Now, if we turn an NFL lens towards Campbell’s program, we can see some more cracks beginning to show. For example, from 2019-21, Iowa State was led by a quarterback by the name of Brock Purdy. That’s right, Mr. Irrelevant. The guy leading the 49ers on an improbable playoff run up to the NFC Championship game this Sunday. Purdy started every game those three seasons, putting up a 151.1 QB Rating in his time on the plains.
Purdy’s running back? You might know the name of New York Jets rookie standout Breece Hall. Hall declared for the draft this past year to leave with Purdy, and also took the NFL by storm when he was healthy. His final two seasons in Ames eclipsed 1,400 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns.
You would think in the offense-oriented Big 12 that Campbell’s high-flying duo of Purdy and Hall would dominate, right? Wrong. The three years the two shared the field with the Cyclones amounted to two 7-6 seasons, the improbable 9-3 Covid-shortened year and Fiesta Bowl victory, and two bowl losses. In fact, the Purdy-Hall years almost look like a downgrade compared to the consecutive 8-5 seasons in 2017 and 2018, where the program only went 1-1 in bowls.
To me, it seems like Campbell was unable to capitalize on the talent he had on the roster. Sure, he’s orchestrated some massive program turnaround, improving from 3-9 to 8-5 between his first and second season. But that’s not enough. His time at the helm of Toledo was immediately following the success of CFB Hall of Famer Gary Pinkel. There wasn’t any rebuild there, and Campbell’s program didn’t reach the heights of Pinkel’s.
Currently, Campbell has to rebuild off of a down season. Currently, the Cyclones’ 2023 recruiting class is ranked 42nd in the nation by 247Sports. It’s headlined by a 6-7 four-star quarterback J.J. Cole, 247’s 11th ranked quarterback in the class. All told, Iowa State currently stands with 22 signed prospects. Even in the Big 12, the Cyclones are middling, coming in with the seventh best class out of the 10 conference teams.
They also haven’t hit the portal hard, only signing two prospects: three-star LB Zachary Lovett from Missouri and four-star RB Arlen Harris Jr. from Stanford. Harris, one of the two four-stars Campbell has coming in this season, is projected to be a Power Five starter, but only has two carries for one total yard against Colgate to his name. Lovett hasn’t seen the field yet. That two-man transfer class puts the Cyclones 78th(!) in the nation and dead last in the conference.
Campbell has a lot to work on with his program, but is he even the guy we all thought he was a few years ago? We’ve seen that Purdy and Hall can compete and shine at the highest level, but they have no conference titles and only one top-10 finish that looks more and more like a fluke each passing year. Campbell had elite talent in Ames, and couldn’t finish the job. With those two headlining the team and staying healthy, 7-6 shouldn’t be the status quo. 9-3 makes more sense. Recruiting hasn’t been up to snuff for a program that was supposed to be sniffing conference title contention. There isn’t a lot of talent returning to Ames, and Campbell isn’t adding a ton of talent, either.
Is Campbell the guy? The jury is still out, but they’re getting closer and closer to deciding. He has to bounce back from an abysmal 4-8 2022 season and recapture the magic of the Purdy-Hall years. If he can’t expect that seat to grow hotter and hotter.