Three Big Questions: Cincinnati Bearcats

A look at each FBS program heading into 2023, alphabetically

Bridge over the Ohio River into Cincinnati. Credit: Jake Blucker on Unsplash

The Group of Five is always changing. Teams ebb and flow, with cycles of G5 team dominance. There were the late-2000’s to early-2010’s Boise State with their iconic Statue of Liberty win over Oklahoma. There was the mid-2010’s Western Michigan that hosted GameDay and made a run for the BCS title. There was the undefeated “national champion” UCF Knights in 2018. But only one Group of Five team has been in the true title conversation in the BCS and CFP Eras: Cincinnati. The Bearcats became the first Group of Five playoff representative in 2020, where they got trounced by Alabama in the semifinals. A lot has changed on the banks of the Ohio River since then, including the Bearcats’ conference. So, what does 2023 have in store for Cincinnati?

Team Information

School: Cincinnati Bearcats

Conference: Big 12 (Note: Competed in the American in 2022)

2022 Record: 9-4 (6-2)

Bowl: 24-7 loss to Louisville in the Wasabi Fenway Bowl

Coaching Staff:

• Head Coach: Scott Satterfield, first season

• Offensive Coordinator: Brad Glenn, first season

• Defensive Coordinator: Bryan Brown, first season and Nate Fuqua, first season

1. Can Scott Satterfield get the most out of Emory Jones?

Last season, Ben Bryant was the Bearcats’ quarterback, and he was a clear downgrade from Desmond Ridder. Bryant wasn’t bad, in fact, he was pretty good for a Group of Five quarterback. He carried a 61.2 completion percentage for 2,732 yards, 21 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a 57.4 QBR.

When head coach Luke Fickell left the program for Wisconsin, plenty of Bearcats entered the portal. That included Bryant, who is now heading to Northwestern.

New head coach Scott Satterfield had to find his next quarterback, and he got it in Emory Jones. The former Arizona State transfer hasn’t lived up to the lofty expectations bestowed on him as a freshman at Florida, but Satterfield may be the best offensive mind that Jones has worked under. His 2022 season was rough, to say the least, with 1,533 yards, seven touchdowns and four interceptions with a 62.8 completion percentage and 49.5 QBR. Jones couldn’t even get much going with his legs, with 59 carries for only 41 yards and four touchdowns.

Satterfield should let Jones loose, though, instead of the firm Herm Edwards offense that Jones had to operate in last season. Let’s remember, Satterfield’s entire tenure at Louisville had dual-threat Malik Cunningham at the helm.

Even if we take Cunningham’s worst offensive seasons, it shows this is a system that should be very friendly to Jones. Cunningham’s worst passing season came in 2022, where he threw for 1,568 yards, eight touchdowns and five interceptions while completing 62.4 percent of his passes. On the ground Cunningham’s worst season was in 2019, where he took 122 carries for 482 yards and six touchdowns.

Clearly, those numbers are better than Jones posted last season. Is Cunningham a better player than Jones? Right now, I’d say yes, but Jones has undeniable talent. He just needs the right coach to unlock it. Satterfield has a wealth of experience with a mobile, dual-threat quarterback. I think he’ll be able to get the most out of Jones. Will it equal what Cunningham was able to do at Louisville? Now that’s the question. Jones definitely has a ceiling around Cunningham’s best seasons, or maybe better. He just needs to show he can perform at that level.

Also, we’ve seen quarterbacks escape Tempe and Herm Edwards and thrive. Just look at Jayden Daniels at LSU last season. Is Jones this year’s Daniels?

If Jones does happen to struggle, the top-rated Cincinnati recruit in program history, Evan Prater, is still on the roster. He played well when Bryant went down towards the end of the season. Right now, Jones is the answer at quarterback.

2. Does all the roster turnover hurt or help the Bearcats?

Anytime a beloved coach leaves a program, there’s turnover. Fickell’s exit from Cincinnati is no different. A total of 25 Bearcats either left or joined the program so far this offseason, and the spring window can ramp that number up even more.

More directly, Fickell took four starters from a year ago with him to Wisconsin: interior offensive lineman Jake Renfroe, offensive tackle Joe Huber, wideout Will Pauling, and wideout Quincy Burrows.

To counter that, Satterfield has brought three players with him from Louisville: wideout Dee Wiggins, linebacker Dorian Jones, and interior offensive lineman Luke Kandra.

Those three are going to step into a system they’re familiar with, which makes a move to a new school infinitely easier.

But, what about the other players? Eight more Bearcats have been lost in the portal, including Bryant, who we discussed earlier. The top two cornerbacks from a year ago, JQ Hardaway and Ja’Quan Sheppard, both departed for Kentucky and Maryland, respectively. With multiple corners and wideouts gone, those position groups are going to look vastly different in 2023.

They also lost a kicker, linebacker, defensive lineman, and safety to the portal.

Satterfield also went hard into the portal, adding 15 players. Their top add was former Utah State edge rusher Daniel Grzesiak. Washington State wideout Donovan Ollie appears to be the top receiver target heading into next season.

So, where does all this turnover leave the Bearcats? As with most teams in the nation, there’s a lot of questions. The coaching change led to a ton of turnover across the Cincinnati roster, but the talent level seems to be the same. It also helps that most of the Bearcats’ signings were on hand for spring ball, which gives them more valuable time in the system.

To make a long story short: we don’t know yet how this much turnover impacts the Bearcats. But, early glances across the roster show that the top has been stripped off. It’s up to Satterfield and his staff to get the most they possibly can out of the roster.

3. Can the defense stay elite in a Power Five conference?

We’ve already looked at how the turnover can hurt a defense, but what about a move to a new, stronger conference?

Let’s not diminish the American, though, which has some high-powered offenses. SMU, ECU, Tulane, and Memphis all boasted strong offenses in 2022. Cincinnati did well against them last season, holding them all under 30 points.

Does that translate well to the Big 12, land of the all offense, no defense playstyle?

First, Brown and Fuqua have to figure out who is going to play defense. The returning player with the most production will be senior linebacker Deshawn Pace, who posted 62 tackles, one sack, one fumble recovery, and one interception. That’s not bad for a senior anchor in the middle of the defense.

But who else is lining up with Pace?

Grzesiak is a solid edge rusher, posting 8.5 sacks a year ago with Utah State. Junior linebacker Dorian Jones saw decent playing time as a rotational piece for Satterfield’s Cardinals in 2022, racking up 34 tackles, three sacks, one forced fumble, and two fumble recoveries.

The rest of the defensive transfers into Cincinnati didn’t see much, if any action, at their previous stops. This unit is full of players that are seeing their first playing time.

Last season, the Bearcats ranked 23rd in the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 20.3 points per game. Can they repeat that this season? Based on what we’ve talked about already, that’s a tall ask. Fickell is a defensive mind, and that showed in his Cincinnati teams. Satterfield, on the other hand, is an offensive mind. The team has a lot of turnover, and a lot of new faces.

Can they repeat the high marks from 2022? Sure. Will they? Probably not. But this still has the build of a solid defense. Maybe a top-50 defense, but not a top-25 unit.

What are the expectations for Cincinnati?

There’s a lot up in the air for the Bearcats, including adjusting to a new conference. FPI pegs Cincinnati as a top-50 team, clocking in at 48th in the nation with a projected 6-6 record. To me, that doesn’t match up.

I think Cincinnati spends this season as a middle of the road team. 6-6 sounds right, but they’re not a top-50 team. Not yet. If Satterfield can unlock Emory Jones, that could go up, but the Bearcats are staring down a down year. I wouldn’t get too worried, though. They should bounce back well.