Three Big Questions: Central Michigan Chippewas
A look at each FBS program heading into 2023, alphabetically
Have you had enough #MACtion recently? You don’t need to answer, I know that there’s not such thing as enough #MACtion. So, let’s head back to the (imo) best conference in the nation (in terms of fun, they’re not winning any natties soon) at Central Michigan. The Chippewas struggled in 2022, but ended the season with a note of hope: freshman quarterback Bert Emanuel Jr. showed off. Emanuel Jr. rushed for 273 yards and three touchdowns in a comeback win over a good Buffalo team on a November weeknight #MACtion game. With that electric start, the Chippewas have their offense for 2023. But is it enough to compete in the conference?
Team Information
School: Central Michigan Chippewas
Conference: Mid-American (West)
2022 Record: 4-8 (3-5)
Bowl: N/A
Coaching Staff:
Head Coach: Jim McElwain, fourth season
Offensive Coordinator: Paul Petrino, second season
Defensive Coordinator: Robb Akey, fourth season
1. How does the quarterback situation work in 2023?
Last season, McElwain decided to take an unconventional quarterback strategy: he did a three-man rotation. Daniel Richardson started most of the games, but when he was unsuccessful down the stretch, McElwain made the move to start to rotate in Emanuel Jr. and Jase Bauer. All three return, but all eyes are on one player: Bert Emanuel Jr.
In his three games of action down the stretch, Emanuel Jr. mostly showed his running talent. Emanuel Jr. had 67 electric carries for 496 yards (a 7.9 yard-per-carry average) and seven touchdowns.
In those games, Bauer handled most of the passing opportunities, and quite poorly, I might add. In fact, Bauer was 35-for-59 through the air for 435 yards, one touchdown, and five interceptions. That’s an interception every 11.8 passes. That’s horrendous. Unacceptable.
Emanuel didn’t have much of a chance to show his talent in the passing game, only attempting eight passes and completing four. Does he factor into the passing game more this year? I don’t know. He’s certainly going to see a lot of snaps, but I don’t think an experienced head coach like McElwain is only going to put Emanuel Jr. out on running downs. He’s going to throw the ball at some point, we’ll just have to see how that goes.
Lost in the shuffle of Emanuel’s shine is the fact that junior quarterback Daniel Richardson had a really good 2021 season. He regressed hard in 2022, but his freshman 2021 season showed he can succeed in the MAC. He completed 60 percent of his passes for 2,633 yards, 24 touchdowns and only six interceptions. Richardson is not a running threat, but he has pure passer talent. Somehow, though, that got lost in 2022, where his completion percentage fell to 56.3, he only had 1,988 yards alongside 15 touchdowns and five interceptions.
So, where does that leave the Chips for 2023? Well, that’s hard to tell. I think it’s safe to assume that Bauer is out of the running after his poor 2022. He is only a sophomore, so there is opportunity for growth still. That leaves Emanuel and Richardson. Does McElwain lean one way or the other? I don’t know. If I had to take a guess, it’s that we see Richardson and Emanuel rotate.
2. Can the Chippewas replace Lew Nichols III?
One of the constants of the second McElwain era in Mount Pleasant has been running back Lew Nichols III. In 2021, Nichols led the nation in rushing, and tallied over 3,000 career yards.
However, their primary offensive weapon is now gone. Nichols II was selected in the seventh round of the NFL Draft by the Green Bay Packers. So who takes over for him?
The second leading rusher on the Chippewas last season was Emanuel Jr., so he doesn’t count. That leaves us at junior tailback Marion Lukes, who took 51 carries for 323 yards and three touchdowns. Lukes also saw action in 2021 to spell Nichols III, taking 22 carries for 94 yards.
Is Lukes Nichols III? No, absolutely not. But is he a talented back? Yes, yes he is.
A 6.3 yard-per-carry average is nothing to sneeze at, especially in a season where Nichols III struggled. Lukes has also shown that he can produce big time in one game, albeit against Akron, with a 26 carry, 160 yard and two touchdown performance. Is that most of his production? Yes, but that’s also over half of his carries.
I’m intrigued by what Lukes can do over a full season. Now, I’m not anointing him as the heir apparent to Nichols III, but I think he’s able to produce at a high level in the MAC. McElwain’s scheme relies on a strong tailback, and I think Lukes can fill that role. Just don’t expect him to replicate what Nichols III was able to do.
3. Does the defense take the next step?
Despite the 4-8 record, the defense wasn’t the problem. Regardless of what a defense does, it’s hard to win when every MAC loss came with the Chippewas scoring less than 20 points. In fact, every time Central Michigan topped 20 points in conference play, they came away with a win.
Last season, the Chips sent out a very young defensive unit. In fact, of the 18 players with 150 or more snaps played in 2022, 11 were freshmen or sophomores. Some of those produced very well. On the defensive line, rising sophomore Michael Hardman returns after harassing opposing offenses to the tune of 5.5 tackles for loss. Rising junior linebackers Kyle Moretti and Justin Whiteside are back after combining for 14 tackles for loss and 27 run stops. The secondary returns junior safety Trey Jones, who was incredibly versatile with 12 run stops and two interceptions, and junior Donte Kent, who had 14 pass defenses.
This is a defense that should take a step forward. Their young players have another season under their belts, and should continue to improve heading into the season.
Robb Ackey is a good defensive coordinator, and his unit has ranked as high as 75th in defensive SP+ as recently as 2021. This defensive unit has a chance to exceed that. Are they going to be an elite defense? No, they’re not. This is a MAC team, they’re generally not going to be elite in anything. In fact, most Group of Five teams don’t ever have an elite unit.
Will and improved defense help the Chippewas? Of course it will. Defensive improvement always helps. Is it the key to righting the wrongs of last season? Not the biggest one. But, an extra step can help the offense get its sea legs in the early parts of the season
What are the expectations for Central Michigan?
The biggest thing Chippewa fans should look for is improvement. This team will go as far as the offense is willing to take it, which as we’ve discussed, is a huge question mark.
Central Michigan has been one of the hardest to prognosticate so far. I feel confident that they’ll improve, but this is the MAC. That could mean an improvement to five wins, or the Chips could jump to 10 wins and a MAC title berth. Anything can happen. FPI puts them at 5-7, but I feel more comfortable in the six-to-seven win range. A bowl bid should be in play, but that depends on the rest of the nation.