Three Big Questions: Bowling Green Falcons
A look at each FBS program heading into 2023, alphabetically
Author’s note: This article was supposed to be released yesterday (April 30), but celebrating my fiance’s graduation (ironically from Bowling Green), was more important. Enjoy the double-article Sunday and we’ll be back to daily posts starting tomorrow!
Lost the the sea of FBS teams was one of the nation's best turnarounds finally reaching fruition: Bowling Green. The Falcons have quietly gone from quite literally the bottom-ranked team in the nation to a bowl in only years. When head coach Scot Loeffler took over, the Falcons had less than 20 returning scholarship players. In 2022, BG returned to the postseason with a Quick Lane Bowl bid. Can the turnaround continue in 2023?
Team Information
School: Bowling Green Falcons
Conference: Mid-American (East)
2022 Record: 6-7 (5-3)
Bowl: 24-19 loss to New Mexico State in Quick Lane Bowl
Coaching Staff:
Head Coach: Scot Loeffler, fifth season
Offensive Coordinator: Greg Nosal, second season and Max Warner, second season
Defensive Coordinator: Steve Morrison, first season and Sammy Lawanson, first season
1. Can Connor Bazelak keep the offense going?
Fifth-year senior Matt McDonald has been the focal point of the Falcons’ offense since he transferred in with his former Boston College playcaller Scot Loeffler in 2019. Now, time has run out and after his best season in the orange and brown, McDonald is no longer the face of the program.
That honor now shifts to former Indiana and Missouri quarterback Connor Bazelak. The journeyman comes with two years of eligibility remaining and brings a wealth of experience after starting 29 career games at his previous stops. He carries a career line of 7,370 yards, 36 touchdowns, 27 interceptions, and a 62.2 completion percentage.
Bazelak also has a ton of talent as a former four-star prospect. His best seasons came in his final season at Missouri, when he passed for 2.548 yards, 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
With his Power Five level experience, Bazelak should be able to smoothly transition to MAC play. It also helps that he fits the perfect mold of Loeffler’s offense: a big bodied, pro style quarterback that isn’t afraid to sling the ball around the yard.
In all honesty, Bazelak should be looking to eclipse McDonald’s numbers from a year ago. The fifth-year senior threw for 2,669 yards, 22 touchdowns and only nine interceptions with a 61.2 completion percentage. That’s well within Bazelak’s range.
The only question I have for the new face of the Falcons is if he can cut down on turnovers. He’s thrown 10 interceptions each season he’s been a starter, which is worrying. McDonald, for reference, didn’t have 10 interceptions in any of his seasons at Bowling Green. As long as Bazelak can trim the interception numbers, he should succeed in windy BG.
2. Can Morrison and Lawanson rebuild this defense?
One of the most interesting parts of Bowling Green the past few seasons has been the defense. In 2021, they were one of the most elite units in the MAC, and had one of the best passing defenses in the nation. Last year, there was some turnover with graduations, especially in the secondary, but they dropped considerably, and allowed 33.1 points per game.
The defensive coordinator who led the turnaround in 2021, Eric Lewis, is now gone, taking the role of Navy’s safeties coach instead of staying in BG. Loeffler promoted from within by naming Morrison and Lawanson co-coordinators this offseason. They will be tasked with returning the Falcons defense to the top of the conference.
This is a defense that has been struck by attrition, though. Star defensive end Karl Brooks was a sixth round pick to the Green Bay Packers in this year’s NFL Draft. The secondary was decimated by the portal, with their three best players, Davon Ferguson, Marcus Sheppard and Jordan Anderson, all departing. They lost two more linebacker starters in JB Brown and Blaine Spires.
Luckily, the captain of the defense and best linebacker in the conference, Darren Anders, decided to return after entering the portal following the 2022 season. With Anders manning the middle, the team can comfortably have someone there to clean up all the runs and middle crossing routes.
It’s everywhere else that worries me, though. Loeffler, who was signing top of the conference classes the past few years, had the 2023 class slip to 11th in the MAC. On top of that, it’s not a very defense heavy class. The did bring in safety Tracy Reeves from Texarakana, Texas, who is the seventh-best high school recruit in BG history, as tracked by 247Sports. Reeves should step into a starting role, but the Falcons need more help than that.
3. Will the run game matter in 2023?
The Falcons have a full running back room, but got surprisingly little production from them in 2022. A total of six backs who saw over 10 carries will be returning, including the top back from one year ago Jaison Patterson. The junior back is a big-bodied, bruising presence that works well between the tackles. He should see more action after taking 135 carries for 583 yards and one touchdown in 2022.
Patterson’s main compliment in the backfield comes from junior Jamal Johnson, who had 55 carries for 250 yards. He’s a smaller back, but still runs with a similarly physical style to Patterson. Johnson also factors as a receiving threat out of the backfield after hauling down 15 catches for 149 yards and his only touchdown.
Patterson and Johnson will be the main backs for the Falcons, but they will be spelled by electric kick returner Ta’ron Keith and bruiser Nick Mosely. PaeSean Wimberly and tight end/fullback Harold Fannin Jr. will also factor in.
With this many backs on the roster looking to contribute, someone should be able to get the Falcons going on the ground. I think Patterson could have a big season and both Keith and Johnson are great pass catchers out of the backfield. They just need Loeffler to lean on the run more to show off their talents.
What are the expectations for Bowling Green?
The MAC is a tough conference to predict, and Bowling Green is tough in their own rights. Loeffler has orchestrated a great turnaround in northwest Ohio, and his new extension leading into 2023 shows that the administrations believes he is the man for the job. I think the Falcons have the most volatile projection in the conference, though.
FPI tags Bowling Green as the 125th team in the nation with a projected 4-7 record. I think they’re better than that. I think another deep run at the MAC championship game is likely, but their wins could vary from four to nine. I think six to seven is a good number, and another edge bowl bid should be in the Falcons’ future.