Three Big Questions: Boise State Broncos
A look at each FBS program heading into 2023, alphabetically
For the first time in this series, let’s travel to a team that was in their conference’s championship game: the Boise State Broncos. The Broncos, known for their iconic blue field (of which I was unable to get a royalty-free photo), went undefeated in the regular season Mountain West play, only to be upset in their own stadium by Jake Haener and the Fresno State Bulldogs. They put together a great season in an otherwise weak conference, but can they do it again in 2023?
Team Information
School: Boise State Broncos
Conference: Mountain West (Mountain)
2022 Record: 10-4 (8-0)
Bowl: Won 35-32 over North Texas in the SERVPRO Frisco Bowl
Coaching Staff:
Head Coach: Andy Avalos, third season
Offensive Coordinator: Bush Hamdan, first season
Defensive Coordinator: Spencer Danielson, third season
1. How much of the Broncos’ offensive success was on Dirk Koetter?
Alum Andy Avalos made a splashy hire to lead the Broncos offense in the middle of last season: he brought in former NFL head coach Dirk Koetter as interim offensive coordinator. For all intents and purposes, though, Koetter was retired. When the team parted ways with Tim Plough after a lackluster 3-2 start that showed little to no offensive promise, they turned to the offensive analyst with the most experience on the staff.
Immediately, Koetter’s experience and genius took the Broncos by storm, transforming the offense overnight and breathing life into a unit that looked worse for wear. Koetter took dual-threat Taylen Green’s strengths and put them at the forefront, which was crucial after previous starter, Hank Bachmeister, made a shocking mid-season entry into the transfer portal.
Even with all that chaos, Koetter’s unit weathered the storm and came out looking better than they had before. Running back George Holani looked like a completely different player as he carved up opposing defenses. Green was making massive plays both with his legs and his arm. The Broncos were clicking, and continued to click through the end of the season and their bowl win, with only a minor slip up in the Mountain West Championship.
But, as quickly as he ascended, Koetter slid back into retirement at the season’s close. Avalos now had to replace not an offensive coordinator that was struggling, but a massively successful one. He tapped fellow alum Bush Hamdan to take the reins of the team’s offense.
Hamdan has had success at each coaching stop, and looks to bring a high-flying passing offense to Boise. His most recent position was coaching wide receivers and quarterbacks at Missouri, who received bowl bids each year he was there. He also worked under Boise State royalty Chris Petersen at Washington as the passing game coordinator.
Even with those accolades, Hamdan has big shoes to fill. Koetter reinvented the offense overnight into one that leans on the run. Hamdan’s past shows a more pass-forward balance. The Broncos will have to grow, both as a team in Hamdan’s scheme, and in Hamdan as a playcaller. But, they have the talent to take that next step.
2. Can Taylen Green mesh with Hamdan’s scheme?
The biggest question mark player-wise on the offense, at least for me, is how Taylen Green works within a pass-first system. Koetter relied heavily on Green’s legs to make plays. The sophomore quarterback toted the rock 81 times for 586 yards and a whopping 10 touchdowns. His dual threat abilities were on full display in Koetter’s scheme, but will Hamdan try to rein that in for a more pass-first approach?
Green’s passing numbers were pretty solid in their own right. He was a top-40 quarterback by ESPN’s QBR metric, posting a 68.4 grade. He completed 60 percent of his passes for just over 2,000 yards, 14 touchdowns, and only six interceptions. For a freshman season, that’s pretty solid.
But, we have to remember, Koetter carefully crafted the scheme to fit Green’s strengths. That’s not to say that Hamdan won’t-he surely will. But, there are inherent differences between a first-time offensive coordinator and 30-year veteran with NFL experience that’s coming out of retirement to coach his kid’s team (Koetter’s son, Davis, was a wide receiver on the team a year ago).
Green has showed he has the talent to succeed in the Mountain West-and he already has succeeded. He started all but one of the Broncos’ eight regular season victories. Hamdan has shown that he can lead a top-40 passing offense, having done that last season at Missouri. This marriage has the potential to create Boise State’s next great quarterback, but it also has the potential to see Green fade out of relevance. For what it’s worth, I think it’ll work.
3. Does the defense have the same talent level as one year ago?
Avalos’s defense was elite a year ago. The Broncos only allowed 18.5 points per game, the 11th best mark in the nation. This wasn’t just a good Group of Five defense, this was a great defense period.
With that, though, is turnover. As many as three Boise State defenders could get their names called in the next few days’ NFL Draft. Safety JL Skinner, is a Day 2 pick. Defensive lineman Scott Matlock and defensive back Tyreque Jones are both Day 3 hopefuls.
They’ve lost a bevy of other defensive standouts to graduation in edge rusher George Tarlas, cornerback Caleb Biggers, defensive back Tyric LeBeauf, and linebacker Ezequiel Noa. All four of those will likely be getting NFL camp invites.
So, who’s left?
The secondary does have some returning bright spots. Redshirt sophomores Rodney Robinson and Seyi Oladipo saw a lot of playing time in 2022, and are ready to take over for one of the nation’s top pass defenses. Fellow redshirt sophomore Jaylen Clark is also back on the outside, and tied Oladipo for the team lead in pass breakups.
Edge rusher Gabe Hunter showed up big towards the end of the season, including snagging two game-clinching interceptions.
Avalos added two three-star transfers to the front seven in Utah edge rusher Tyler Wegis and Boston College defensive lineman Kivon Wright. They also look to plug three-star Wisconsin safety Titus Toler into a starting spot.
It’s hard for a Group of Five program to lose this many players to the NFL on one side of the ball, but the cupboards aren’t bare. Avalos and Danielson have created one of the best defenses in the nation, and while this new group isn’t as talented or experienced as the last, they certainly can fill the shoes of their predecessors.
What are the expectations for Baylor?
The Broncos won 10 games, the regular season conference title, and a bowl game in 2022. They should want to repeat all of that in 2023. And they should. If this team doesn’t win the Mountain West, the season will be a disappointment. They could get a tough bowl draw based on how they perform, but a bowl win should also be the expectation. This is a loaded roster primed and ready to go. They’re ready, and you shouldn’t be surprised if they run away with the Mountain West title.