Three Big Questions: Baylor Bears
A look at each FBS program heading into 2023, alphabetically
In 2022, the Big 12 was a surprising meat grinder. In the wake of the decision of the conference’s two biggest brands, Oklahoma and Texas, to depart the league for the SEC, it was expected that they would dominate. Instead, some unlikely teams competed for the championship. While Baylor wasn’t one of those teams, they play in the most volatile “Power Five” conference in the nation. They also have one of the best coaches in the nation in Dave Aranda. After one down year following the Bears’ first ever 12-win season, Aranda’s squad is looking to bounce back and reclaim the top spot in the Big 12.
Team Information
School: Baylor Bears
Conference: Big 12
2022 Record: 6-7 (4-5)
Bowl: Lost 30-15 to Air Force in the Lockheed Armed Forces Bowl
Coaching Staff:
Head Coach: Dave Aranda, fourth season
Offensive Coordinator: Jeff Grimes, third season
Defensive Coordinator: Matt Powledge, first season
1. Who is on the offensive line?
Junior quarterback Blake Shapen certainly has room to grow, but that’s hard to do when you’re running for your life. And that’s what he might have to do this season.
The Bears are turning over three of the five spots on the offensive line, which is almost never a good thing. They lost three five-year starters in center Jacob Gall, guard Grant Miller, and All-Big 12 tackle Connor Galvin. Sophomore Micah Mancuzza left in the portal for Florida.
Two of the spots are being filled in the portal through BYU transfers (and brothers) Clark and Campbell Barrington. Clark is a four-star interior offensive lineman, while Campbell is a three-star tackle. One thing to consider is the Barringtons have experience with Baylor offensive line coach Eric Mateos and Grimes, who both worked at BYU while the Barringtons were there. That familiarity should allow them to step into starting roles at Baylor with ease.
The other spot, though, is up for grabs. Being the center position puts a little more importance on the position. In a pro-style system, the center is very important. They handle a lot of the reads and protections pre-snap, and often are the main point of the blocking scheme. Right now, Baylor doesn’t have someone to fill that role. They also don’t have any early enrollees that might be able to bridge that gap.
As long as the Barringtons continue to perform as well as they did at BYU, the Bears offensive line should be able to hold their own in the conference. The center position is a concern, though, and could hold back what might otherwise be a decent unit.
2. How does the secondary look?
Defense is Dave Aranda’s strength, and Baylor should always field a good unit. But the portal has absolutely decimated this secondary. They’ve lost two cornerbacks and two safeties already, and with the spring period opening, it’s possible more may jump ship.
Aranda did bring in a three-star cornerback transfer from Miami in Isaiah Dunson, a former four-star prospect who comes with two years of remaining eligibility. For most of his career, Dunson has played on special teams, but should get a chance to compete for a spot on the outside for the Bears.
There are reinforcements on the way to Waco through the 2023 recruiting class, though. Already enrolled are three-star cornerbacks Carl Williams IV and Caden Jenkins. There are two other three-star corners coming in over the summer in LeVar Thornton Jr. and Tay’Shawn Wilson, along with three-star safety DJ Coleman.
Aranda needs some of these recruits to step up, and I’d put bets on Williams IV and Jenkins being the ones to do that. Spring practice is invaluable to a young prospect, and they both are already in the building learning and growing with Aranda and the defensive staff.
3. Who wins the quarterback battle?
It’s not often that a quarterback battle ensues with the starter from a year ago still on the roster, but that’s the situation Baylor is in. Shapen, who won the job from Gerry Bohannon last spring, had a good, but not great 2022. In fact, by ESPN’s QBR metric, which measures quarterbacks on a scale from 0-100 based on how they impact their team’s chances of winning, Shapen was slightly above average with a 57.1 grade.
In the counting metrics, he still had a decent season: 2,790 yards, 18 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 63.3 completion percentage. None of those were top of the nation marks, and none were towards the bottom. For a Power Five signal caller, you’d like to see a little more pizzazz, though.
Where last spring Shapen had to deal with Bohannon, now he has Mississippi State transfer Sawyer Robertson to contend with. The transfer sophomore doesn’t have a lot of game tape in Mike Leach’s pass-happy approach, but has a wealth of talent. He is a former four-star recruit out of Lubbock, Texas that has NFL Draft potential. Robertson is a big-bodied, prototypical quarterback that has good pocket presence, but shines in the short-to-medium game.
In all reality, this is a quarterback battle in name alone. Shapen is going to lead the Bears out onto the field again in 2023. Robertson needs developmental time and an adjustment from the Run n’ Shoot Leach offense to Grimes’s pro-style system. Next year, there should be an earnest battle. And, who knows, maybe the presence of Robertson will push Shapen into becoming an even better version of himself, which the Bears need to return to the top of the conference.
What are the expectations for Baylor?
I think Baylor is in a good position to bounce back this year. Now, I’m not going out on a limb and saying they’ll hit 12 wins again, but I think they’ll sit in the eight-to-10 range. That’s probably not good enough to make the Big 12 title game, but should still garner the Bears a good bowl appearance. The key to this is Shapen’s development, and the offensive line coming together, but I think that’s more likely than not. Aranda is too good of a coach to continue to let this team slide, and I think 2022 will be seen as a exception to a very good tenure in Waco.