Three Big Questions: Ball State Cardinals
A look at each FBS program heading into 2023, alphabetically
Where most teams have moved to the spread offense with heavy passing, Ball State is a holdout of the old days. The pro style I-formation three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust days. In good old Muncie, Indiana, the Cardinals orchestrate one of the nation’s top rushing attacks. In the pandemic-affected 2020, the Cardinals were the MAC Champions after an upset of Buffalo in the title game. Since then, Ball State has slumped heavily, falling under .500 a year ago and a long shot from the title conversation. But, can 2023 buck that trend?
Team Information
School: Ball State Cardinals
Conference: Mid-American (West)
2022 Record: 5-7 (3-5)
Bowl: N/A
Coaching Staff:
Head Coach: Mike Neu, eighth season
Offensive Coordinator: Kevin Lynch and Jared Elliott, third and second seasons respectively
Defensive Coordinator: Tyler Stockton, fifth season
1. Can the Cardinals weather offensive turnover?
The pillars of the Ball State offense last year were running back Carson Steele and quarterback John Paddock. Steele was one of the nation’s premier rushers in 2022, scampering for 1,556 yards and 14 touchdowns. For those counting at home, that’s the ninth-most yards and tied for 16th most in touchdowns in the nation. Paddock made sure the team was balanced, completing 59.6 percent of his passes for 2,719 yards, 18 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. That’s not an ideal season, though, as his QBR was a measly 30.6, which ranked 118th in the nation.
We could be talking about Steele keeping up the outstanding play and Paddock improving, but we’re not. Steele bolted, taking a chance out west to replace Zach Charbonnet as UCLA’s premier back. Paddock, on the other hand, is taking his talents a state over and transferring to Illinois. Throw in the fact that the top two pass catchers from a year ago in Jayshon Jackson and Yo’Heinz Tyler have graduated and the Cardinal offense looks drastically different than a year ago.
Neu didn’t let the portal only take away players. He plugged in fellow MAC back Marquez Cooper from Kent State to replace Steele. Taking Paddock’s place is Texas State transfer Layne Hatcher.
Cooper is someone I don’t worry about. Sure, he has a big adjustment going from Sean Lewis’s “Flash Fast” offense to Neu’s grinding pro style, but time in spring camp will fix that. In fact, the rest between plays should keep him effective. The senior already torched the conference, going for 1,331 yards and 13 touchdowns a year ago.
Hatcher is the true question mark. The former Texas State and Arkansas State quarterback has four years of starting experience under his belt, but his numbers each year look strikingly similar to Paddock in all four years. His freshman year at Arkansas State was outstanding: 2,949 yards, 65.8 completion percentage, 27 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions. But, he hasn’t put it back together since then. Last season, he posted a similarly poor 30.8 QBR to Paddock, while his counting stats were nearly identical to Paddock’s.
Cooper is going to pick up where Steele left off, that’s no question. But Ball State’s offensive hopes rest on whether or not Hatcher can improve on the sub-par quarterback play that’s plagued Funcie since the magical 2020 run.
2. Does a rebuilt secondary create more turnovers?
While rebuilding the defense has been a priority in Muncie since 2021, Neu’s done a good job. But, one area still remains: there are no turnovers.
The Cardinal defense only forced 15 turnovers last year: seven interceptions and eight fumble recoveries. While that’s over one turnover a game, it’s still not enough to help this defense grow into one of the league’s best.
Neu and defensive coordinator Tyler Stockton turned their attention to the secondary this offseason, adding two transfer safeties in DD Snyder from Illinois and Aljareek Malry from VMI alongside Lehigh defensive lineman Makhari Sibblis. Marly and Sibblis factor in mostly as depth and rotational pieces, but Snyder should take over a starting role in the Cardinals’ secondary.
Ball State also added safeties Elijah Davis from Indianapolis, Indiana and Derek Fields Jr. from St. Louis, Missouri, as well as cornerback TJ Horton from Lexington, Kentucky in their 2023 class. All three are rated as three-stars universally, but ESPN has Davis as a borderline four-star and the cream of the crop in this class.
With the help on the outside joining senior corner Nic Jones, one of two Cardinals to pull down multiple picks a year ago, and junior safety Jordan Riley, who tied Jones for passes defensed last year, the Cardinals should have a better looking secondary. They did lose interception leader Amechi Uzodinma II to graduation, but the transfer class and strong positional recruiting will help weather that loss.
3. Will any Cardinal receivers step up?
We’ve spent some time talking about Paddock’s struggles at quarterback a year ago, but let’s not put everything on him. Johnson and Tyler, the two graduating receivers, were the only ones that did much of anything for the Cardinals in 2022. Well, that is if we’re calling Tyler’s 441 yards and one touchdown something.
Their tight ends did some heavy work, especially in the red zone, with 12 combined touchdowns, but tight ends are mostly blockers in Neu’s offensive system.
Ball State needs to get anything out of their wideouts for offensive improvement in 2023. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, that’s probably going to have to come from outside the building. The returning leading receiver is senior Amir Adbur-Rahman, who tallied 229 yards and one touchdown last year.
This is an area that really concerns me, especially coupled with Hatcher’s career to date. Neu didn’t add any wideouts in a small transfer class. They added one (1) wideout in the 2023 class in three-star Isaiah Thacker from New Palestine, Indiana. The big-bodied wideout had a strong high school senior season, with 917 yards and nine touchdowns. He also has talent as a defensive back, if the Cardinals want to go that route, but has routinely said that he wants to be a wideout.
But that’s it. There is nobody else that really jumps out. There are no big time prospects buried on the depth chart. There are no diamond in the rough transfers from a small FCS school. Neu and the Cardinals will have to make do with what they have. And, they don’t have a lot. If Hatcher has nobody to throw to, this offense is going to flounder.
What are the expectations for Ball State?
The MAC is a conference that is hard to predict year-in and year-out. Even for a MAC veteran like myself. Ball State is even harder to predict than most schools because of the massive changes each year. The defense has flipped from elite to one of the worst in the nation, to good, to somewhere in the middle more times than I can count.
In all honesty, I think the defensive performance a year ago was a fluke and they’ll bounce back this year. Cooper can lead a strong run-heavy offense. It’s the passing game that worries me in Muncie. I don’t think they have the talent on the outside to compete quite yet. But, this is the MAC, and anything can happen. For now, let’s peg Ball State as a five-to-seven win team that could take advantage of some #MACtion chaos and make a surprising run, but likely will finish a game or two out of the championship tilt.