Three Big Questions: Arkansas State Red Wolves
A look at each FBS program heading into 2023, alphabetically
One of the quietest good Group of Five programs has been Arkansas State in recent years. They haven’t won the conference recently, but they’ve always been in the hunt. Jonesboro has also become a head coaching factory, with Hugh Freeze, Gus Malzahn and Bryan Harsin all going onto Power Five jobs after leaving the Red Wolves (aside: these are the last three Auburn football coaches. Do what you want with that information). That is, until Butch Jones took over. Jones is 5-19 in his two seasons in Jonesboro, and is very much on the hot seat. Can 2023 be the year he finally breaks through?
Team Information
School: Arkansas State Red Wolves
Conference: Sun Belt (West)
2022 Record: 3-9 (1-7)
Bowl: N/A
Coaching Staff:
Head Coach: Butch Jones, third season
Offensive Coordinator: Keith Heckendorf, fourth season
Defensive Coordinator: Rob Harley, second season
1. Does the defense have any life?
If we’re looking at the Jones era as a whole, the answer is a resounding “no.” In the two years Jones has led the team, the defense has finished 128th and 119th in ESPN’s SP+ metric. Not great.
When you look at the roster, there’s not much improvement. They don’t have a standout on the roster, and haven’t added much, if anything. Arkansas State’s transfer class ranks dead last in the conference and 92nd in the nation. They did bring in two Power Five linebacker transfer in Kansas’s Gavin Potter and Northwestern’s Wendell Davis. Potter was an honorable mention to the Big 12’s All-Freshman Team in 2019, but there’s not much past that on either one.
They did sign the best recruiting class of 2023 in the conference, but the top of it is very offense-heavy. The Red Wolves added a host of three-star front-seven guys, but none project to be immediate impacts. As always, there’s a chance for surprise, but nobody jumps off of the page at you.
So, where does the improvement come from? Well, defensive coordinator Rob Harley will have to manufacture that. Arkansas State lost a ton in the portal, and didn’t have a lot to begin with. They signed a solid recruiting class, but it seems more depth-based than impact.
One good thing that the defense has going for it is forcing turnovers. His most recent season in Jonesboro had the Red Wolves force six more turnover than the year before. In fact, there has been an increase in forced turnovers in each of Harley’s four seasons at Arkansas State.
But, turnovers can be a mask for a poorly performing defense, and that’s the case here. If Arkansas State wants to get on the right side of this, they need to improve on scoring and total defense.
2. Who wins the Red Wolves’ quarterback battle?
Last season, the Red Wolves had James Blackman under center, who posted a surprisingly solid season for a 3-9 team. His counting stats were solid: 2,457 yards, 14 touchdowns and only three interceptions. But the advanced metrics, such as QBR, have Blackman in the lower half of the nation.
But, regardless of Blackman’s season a year ago, his eligibility ran out. So, Heckendorf and Jones have to find the Red Wolves’ next signal caller. They landed Colorado transfer JT Shrout, who started seven games for the Buffaloes in 2022. But, they were one of the worst teams in the nation, with Shrout throwing for 1,220 yards, seven touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Competing with Shrout is redshirt freshman Jaxon Dailey. Dailey appeared in two games a year ago, going five-of-10 for 34 yards and tossing one pick. A former three-star prospect, Dailey threw for 1,297 yards, 14 touchdowns and four interceptions his senior season.
Neither one has a particularly impressive stat line to fall back on, so we have to look at projections. Dailey is a highly touted prospect for a Sun Belt team and has the size and arm talent to develop into a solid Group of Five starter. Shrout has Power Five projections, he signed at Colorado after all.
The Red Wolves don’t have their spring game until next weekend, so we’ll learn more then, but nobody has separated themselves from the pack yet.
3. What does the offensive line look like?
Regardless of who is behind center, they need to be upright. The strength of Arkansas State’s offense a year ago was their offensive line, but they still gave up 35 sacks in 2022.
The bad news for Red Wolves fans is that three starters from last year’s unit are gone. With one off to graduation, they lost two other to the portal. Jones brought in some replacements in interior offensive lineman Jacob Bayer from Lamar, who is a zero-star on 247’s database, and three star tackle Hamilton Hall from Ole Miss.
It’s always difficult to replace offensive linemen and build a cohesive unit, and Arkansas State has their work cut out for them here. Hall seems to be able to slide into a starting tackle slot, but how does the rest of the line look? Does it hurt whoever is behind center?
What are the expectations for Arkansas State?
Arkansas State is in a tough spot. They have a coach that hasn’t produced any results, a defense that has more holes than a sieve, and no quarterback. As much as I’d love to say they’ll improve for 2023, I just don’t see it happening. Don’t be surprised if we head into the offseason with a coaching search underway after yet another disappointing season.