Stealing signs: The Michigan Investigation

What is the NCAA looking at and how will it shake out?

Michigan Head Coach Jim Harbaugh at a press conference. Credit: Maize & Blue Nation, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

The Big 10 has certainly had its fair share of scandals this season, from the Northwestern hazing investigation, to Mel Tucker’s sexual harassment investigation. Now, the newest one has fallen: Michigan has apparently stole signs.

This scandal is different in that it almost entirely takes place on the field. Well, not really on, per se, more adjacent, but you get the point. Either way, this is an integrity of the game investigation, and one the NCAA will not take lightly.

Michigan and Head Coach Jim Harbaugh have already come under hot water with Hamburger-gate that led to Harbaugh’s three-game suspension earlier this season, which you can read about below. Another violation could spell doom on the program, especially with the on-field nature of the alleged crimes.

What are the allegations?

This round of allegations against Michigan revolve around the alleged misconduct of Connor Stalions, an analyst with the Wolverines. According to an October 19 report by Yahoo! Sports’s Ross Dellenger and Dan Wetzel, the NCAA placed Michigan under investigation for a violation of NCAA bylaw 11.6.1, which reads “Off-campus, in-person scouting of future opponents (in the same season) is prohibited.” Almost immediately, Harbaugh denied any involvement in the scheme. One day later, Michigan announced it was suspending analyst Stalions for his role in the alleged violations.

So, what exactly is the NCAA alleging Stalions did? According to The Athletic’s Nicole Auerbach and Austin Meek, the sign stealing scheme included Stalions purchasing tickets for Big 10 games involving future Michigan opponents. Once at the game, Stalions or another Michigan representative would film the hand signals the coaches used to relay plays. One Big 10 opponent told Auerbach and Meek that they had video evidence of Stalions recording the sidelines.

ESPN’s Pete Thamel and Mark Schlabach reported yesterday that schools outside the Big 10 had records of Stalions purchasing tickets, pushing the total of schools the analyst is alleged of spying on over 30. Included in the ESPN report is the fact that there are records of Stalions purchasing tickets all the way back to 2021, showing that this is a concerted effort on his part. They also detailed that Stalions used a three-person network to assign games to other individuals. They would then travel to whichever game Stalions had purchased tickets for and record their assigned sideline.

Wait, isn’t sign stealing legal? What’s the big deal?

It is and it isn’t. There are two main prongs that are illegal: scouting off-campus and electronically stealing signs.

Let’s look at the first prong of that: scouting off-campus. This is the one that the NCAA has officially placed the program under investigation for. The NCAA is alleging that the Michigan program violated Bylaw 11.6.1, which states: “Off-campus, in-person scouting of future opponents (in the same season) is prohibited.”

Based on what we’ve discussed, it’s clear that the entire investigation so far revolves around that issue. Did Stalions and his team go to future opponents’ games to scout them? This doesn’t even scratch the surface of the sign stealing allegations, yet is enough to bring the investigative arm of the NCAA down on Michigan.

We can then move to the second prong of the case: electronic sign stealing. AP News in their report on the investigation noted that “NCAA rules do not directly ban the stealing of signs, but there are rules against using electronic equipment to record an opponent’s signals.”

Looking at the current allegations, it’s clear that the plot would be in violation of this rule as well, even though the NCAA has not directly stated that Michigan is under investigation on this. If Stalions was, in fact, recording the signs of the opposition, that would be a violation.

So what is legal?

Well, the practice of watching the TV broadcast to decipher signs, as one Big 10 staffer I spoke to noted, is very much legal. That’s why you see those big tarps on the sideline in front of coaches—it’s to hide their signs from the TV cameras.

Sign-stealing on the sidelines and in the coaching boxes is nothing new, though. The Athletic ran an article in 2018 talking to a highly successful coach whose main job is to steal signs. Brent Venables has been known as a masterful sign stealer since his days at Clemson. This is not something new, and is very much a part of the gameday gamesmanship.

Is there any stock in this?

Hard evidence doesn’t come out of NCAA probes until the governing body is ready to release it, if ever, so we likely won’t see any official evidence of Stalions’ wrongdoings.

However, we have internet sleuths to thank for some evidence. It didn’t take long for the internet to dig in on Stalions and find that his Venmo was public, allowing everyone to see his payment history. Looking into that saw plenty of suspicious payments to Stalions, including one on December 30, 2022 titled “GA.” That day was the College Football Playoff Semifinals, where Michigan was taking on TCU and Georgia and Ohio State squared off.

In a twist that nobody saw coming (read: sarcasm), the Ohio State fan forum Eleven Warriors got in on the game too, finding “video evidence” of Stalions relaying a call to Michigan defensive coordinator Jesse Minter ahead of an Ohio State play. Minter is seen saying “blitz” multiple times, and the Wolverines blitz on the play, stopping the Buckeye runner for a loss. In a larger thread, Eleven Warriors brings more evidence of Stalions on the sidelines relaying calls to both Minter and offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore.

I also talked to a Big 10 staffer who has worked as an analyst previously outside the conference. He indicated to me that analysts are often tasked with pre-game prep, which includes watching the broadcast tapes of upcoming opponents. It’s not out of the question that this is how it started, watching the game broadcasts and trying to decipher the oppositions’ signs based on TV cameras.

Will Michigan get punished?

We won’t know anytime soon. NCAA investigations take time, so I wouldn’t expect anything to come out of this mess this year.

The Big 10, however, also has judiciary oversight on the program and doesn’t have to wait for the NCAA ruling to make a ruling of their own. The conference, which was initially reported to be leading the investigation, has the ability to levy a punishment at Michigan if they see fit.

The Big 10 Sportsmanship Handbook gives commissioner Tony Petitti “the authority to impose any disciplinary action in response…” to an “offensive action,” which can also be defined by Petitti. Essentially, Petitti can serve as judge and jury in this case.

As for punishment, the conference has two routes they can go. They can lobby a Standard Disciplinary Action, which can include “admonishment, reprimand, fines that do not exceed $10,000 and suspensions from no more than two contests.” These standard actions can be handed down by Petitte without any outside input and are not eligible for appeals. If the conference wishes to go with a harsher punishment, they can pursue a Major Disciplinary Action, which is subject to approval from an executive committee made up of representatives from each of the member schools.

With frustration growing within the conference, per ESPN, there is pressure on the conference to get ahead of the NCAA and make a ruling. The Big 10 has said they want to have “as full of a picture of what the facts actually are if [they] were to act,” so I wouldn’t expect a ruling immediately.

As for the NCAA, that’s where the real hard sanctions will likely come down. With as much evidence as internet sleuths have uncovered, the NCAA will be able to find tons of evidence from working directly with the schools. It’s already been reported that at least one school sent the NCAA an hour long video that is supposedly showing Stalions engaging in stealing signs and also relaying them to the Michigan coaching staff.

The biggest question that remains is did Harbaugh know about this? Based on some video evidence, it’s possible to assume that Sherrone Moore and Jesse Minter are aware of Stalions’s alleged scheme, but there’s nothing pointing to Harbaugh yet. That’s the question that the outcome of this hinges upon. If Harbaugh and the Michigan higher-ups were aware of the sign-stealing scheme, Michigan could be looking at the dreaded Lack of Institutional Control charge. This is the highest charge the NCAA can place on a program, and has been the result of some of the sport’s biggest scandals, like the Miami Hurricanes, Pete Carroll-led USC, and the ultimate scandal, SMU’s Death Penalty.

I’m not saying that Michigan is facing the Death Penalty. However, it could be enough to force some major changes in Ann Arbor. Earlier, in the wake of Hamburger-gate, I wrote that scandal could be the one to force Harbaugh out of Michigan. Based on his anti-NCAA rhetoric throughout this season, as well as these newest rounds of charges, perhaps this is the year he finally jumps to the NFL. And with his top two assistants in Minter and Moore implicated in the scheme, how does Michigan go forward without their enigmatic, khaki-wearing head man?

There’s a lot that still needs to be answered about this case, and I’m sure more will come out. But this is a major story, and is one that could throw the entire Michigan season down the drain.