Seat Check!: Which coaches are on the hot seat?
Breaking down the five coaches with the most on the line in 2023
Each year, there’s a list of coaches that are fighting for their jobs. Some have more expectations than other, some have more money on the line, and some are just at a school ready to move on. If you’re a fan of a team that isn’t meeting expectations, you might want your coach gone. Have no fear, administration might too.
Here’s a list of the five coaches I feel like are fighting for their jobs. Obviously, there are some, let’s say, interesting situations outside of this list, particularly at Northwestern and Michigan State. I won’t be commenting on those since, a) they’re scandal related, and b) both Northwestern and Michigan State have fired their respective coaches for cause. Scandals are a part of this sport, like it or not. But this list will serve as coaches whose on-field success have put them in the hot seat.
Jimbo Fisher - Texas A&M
Jimbo is perhaps the biggest name here, and for good reason. He’s got one of the largest contracts in college football, with his $9.15 million yearly salary ranking seventh in the nation in USA Today’s annual coaching salary breakdown.
But, what’s that investment got the Aggies? In the 67-game Fisher era, Texas A&M is 43-24 overall while carrying a 25-20 SEC record and 10-14 against AP Top 25 teams. Let’s compare that with Kevin Sumlin, the much-maligned previous Aggie coach, whose record at 67 games looks eerily similar to Fisher: 45-22 overall, 21-19 in SEC play and 13-12 against AP Top 25 teams.
If Fisher can’t outcoach Kevin Sumlin, then why in the world is he still leading Texas A&M?
Well, for one, his buyout is massive. If the Aggies decide to move on after this season, they’ll owe Fisher $76.8 million. The boosters in College Station have notoriously deep pockets, but I’m not sure they go that deep.
One of the biggest signs for me that Fisher is feeling the heat was bringing in another offensive mind in Bobby Petrino to help rectify the offense. For those at home, that means the offensive-minded Fisher turned the keys of his kingdom over to Bobby Petrino, one of the few coaches with more drama following him than Fisher.
I don’t think that Texas A&M will move on from Fisher this offseason, but they will certainly try. If you think the Bryan Harsin smear campaign by Auburn last year was bad, just wait and see what happens in College Station this offseason. Even though his contract keeps him safe this season, it’s almost indisputable that Fisher own the hottest seat in the nation.
Tom Allen - Indiana
Speaking of massive contracts for their school, let’s check in on Indiana. Tom Allen is in his eighth year as Indiana’s head coach and boy is it getting dire in Bloomington. He sits at 32-44 with the Hoosiers overall. Perhaps worse than that is the fact that Indiana hasn’t done anything of note on the football field since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Allen’s career highlight so far was the 6-2 finish his Hoosiers had in the pandemic-shortened 2020, including reaching as high at seventh in the AP Poll that season. But, let’s dig a little deeper into that season. Indiana had, for the first time in a very long time, competent quarterback play from Michael Penix Jr., who threw for 1,645 yards, 14 touchdowns and four picks in six games. So, did Allen need an elite quarterback to succeed? It’s possible.
The problem is, elite quarterbacks don’t want to come to Bloomington, Indiana. In fact, aside from Penix, Allen has struggled to even pick a quarterback. Each season he’s led the Hoosiers has had some quarterback controversy transpire.
Then, we got the kiss of death from administration: offensive coordinator Walt Bell was fired October 1. At the time of Bell’s firing, Indiana ranked 111th nationally in scoring, with 20.8 points per game.
Very rarely does a midseason coordinator firing mean anything good for a team. In fact, Allen is treading on mighty thin ice. The only thing saving him: a $20 million buyout if he’s fired this season. That drops to $8 million after 2024, so it’s plausible that Indiana keeps him around for another year.
But, with the new media deal kicking in and an uncertain future in the division-less Big 10, Indiana could decide to invest more in football. A wise first investment is $20 million to send Allen away.
Dino Babers - Syracuse
It’s hard to fire long-tenured coaches. Especially at schools that aren’t known for competing in football. Syracuse is one of those schools.
Babers has been with the Orange since 2016, holding a 40-52 career record. His seat was certainly warm last season, but a 6-0 start and AP ranking of 14 cooled it considerably. That fell apart in a 1-6 finish and Pinstripe Bowl loss to Minnesota.
Syracuse has only posted two winning seasons in the eight years of the Babers era: 2022’s 7-6 season and a 10-3 finish in 2018. They’ve only cracked the Top 25 in three seasons: the two winning seasons and the preseason rankings of 2019.
Babers and the Orange got off to a hot start again this season at 4-0 with wins over Colgate, Western Michigan, Purdue and Army. The last three games, though, have had the Orange looking non-competitive against the class of the ACC, only scoring 24 combined points in losses against Clemson, North Carolina and Florida State.
The good news? Syracuse get a much needed bye week before traveling to Virginia Tech, who might be in a worse situation than them. The bad news? A loss to Virginia Tech might spell the end of the Dino Babers era in Syracuse.
This is a favorable end of the season schedule for the Orange, though. Their toughest opponent is Wake Forest or a neutral site Yankee Stadium matchup against Pitt. Those are winnable, right?
Babers has five games to prove he’s the right guy for the job at Syracuse. I think four wins gets him another year. Any less, and I’d expect there to be a new head man for the Orange in 2024.
Sam Pittman - Arkansas
Pittman is someone I didn’t really have on my hot seat radar heading into this season, but his shine has dulled considerably across the last four seasons.
Pittman is a gamer, getting his first head coaching opportunity at age 58 when the Razorbacks hired him in 2020. He was regarded as one of the nation’s best recruiters, especially across the offensive line, where he recruited star recruits Jamaree Salyer, Isaiah Wilson, Clay Webb and more to Georgia.
At Arkansas, Pittman has put together Top 30 classes every season, per 247Sports’ rankings. There’s only one problem: that doesn’t really move the needle for the Razorbacks, who routinely land in the mid-to-late 20s rankings.
On the field, the Hogs have posted two winning seasons in 2021 and 2022, reaching as high as eighth in the nation during 2021.
Pittman isn’t known as an X’s and O’s coach, instead, he fits into the CEO recruiting Head Coach profile. With that style, a coach lives and dies by their coordinator hires.
When Pittman was hired in Fayetteville, he brought along Kendal Briles to lead the Hogs offense. After some growing pains in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Briles and quarterback K.J. Jefferson gelled. Jefferson excelled as a passer, posting over 2,600 yards, 20 touchdowns and five or less picks in 2021 and 22. On the ground he tallied over 600 yards and at least four scores those two seasons.
Briles, however, departed Arkansas this offseason for a higher-paying role as TCU’s offensive coordinator. Pittman brought in Dan Enos to succeed him. That hasn’t quite worked out. Jefferson’s stats have cratered. Arkansas is one of the SEC’s worst programs this season at 2-5. Things are looking dire.
Right now, Pittman sits at 21-22 overall. That’s important, as his buyout is slashed by 25 percent if his overall record is under .500. In order to jump ahead of that mark, and raise his buyout from $10.7 million to $16.1 million, the Hogs have to win out, which is a tall task with Florida, Auburn and Missouri still looming.
In a offseason that’s not shaping up to be the biggest coaching carousel, Arkansas could be one of the premier jobs. With a likely discount on their coach’s buyout looming, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Razorbacks move on from Pittman if they don’t turn it around in the second half.
Butch Jones - Arkansas State
Now, for our Group of Five hot seat mention: Butch Jones at Arkansas State.
The Red Wolves have been a fertile coaching ground in recent years, with head coaches like Hugh Freeze, Gus Malzahn, and Bryan Harsin moving through the program and a highly successful seven years under Blake Anderson leading up to this point.
Anderson got a raise to become the head coach of Utah State in 2021, so Arkansas State pivoted to Butch Jones, a longtime head coach and graduate of the Saban Coaching Rehab Program. Everything went downhill from there.
Jones is 5-17 in his tenure with Arkansas State, and the Red Wolves sit at 3-3 this season. None of their losses have been competitive, with them being outscored 147-6. Their three wins have come against FCS Stony Brook, a downtrodden UMass team, and Southern Miss. With the schedule now entirely turned to Sun Belt play, it’s only going to get tougher to pick up some wins.
Right now, the buyout for Jones doesn’t appear too bad: $1.54 million if he’s dismissed after this season. While that’s a lot for a school that only budgets $3.1 million for football, it’s among the lowest in the nation. Jones ranks 94th in publicly-reported coaches salaries, so Arkansas State can move on if they choose to. And, they should.