Real or Fake?: September Edition
Breaking down what's real or not through the season's first full month
We’re over one full month into college football, and now that most everyone is in conference play (looking at you, Notre Dame), we can finally answer some questions about what is actually going on in college football.
Grab a snack and get ready to go! It’s time to see what reactions are real and what reactions are fake coming out of a jam-packed September.
Real or Fake: The Dynasties are Over?
Real. Kind of. I wouldn’t say “over,” but “dying” seems more apt.
The dynasties I’m discussing are the Clemson Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide. Both had been extremely successful recently, and are the only programs to win multiple College Football Playoff titles.
Let’s start with Clemson. I was high on the Tigers coming into this season, as you can read in my season preview for them on College Football Dawgs. I picked them to be good. Really good. I thought they were bona fide CFP contenders, that quarterback Cade Klubnik and tailback Will Shipley would thrive in new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley’s offense. That hasn’t happened.
Right now, Clemson sits at 3-2 and is all but eliminated from ACC title contention. They do get a lucky break with Duke’s Riley Leonard suffering a sprained ankle that could lead the Blue Devils to lose a couple of games and allow Clemson to make up ground. But, the main problem still remains: this offense hasn’t showed up against a quality team. They scored seven against Duke. Two weeks ago, they put up 24 in an overtime loss to Florida State. Neither of those teams have renowned defenses, and that concerns me.
The Tigers do have a renowned defense, and it flexed its muscles last week against previously unbeaten Syracuse. During that 31-14 win over the Orange, Clemson defenders tallied five sacks and three forced fumbles in their best defensive outing this year. They need more of those outings going forward, as Klubnik still hasn’t quite got the offense going, ranking 64th in the nation in QBR.
Clemson can right the ship, though. There’s big time ACC matchups against Miami and North Carolina still looming on the schedule. They also have a massive out-of-conference game in Death Valley against Notre Dame in November.
Now, we can turn our attention to the other major dynasty: Alabama. The Tide have only one loss on the docket, at home to Texas (more on them later). Following that loss, and a quarterback shift from Jaden Milroe to Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson, Alabama struggled mightily against USF. Not what you’re used to seeing from the Tide.
Under the surface, though, Saban’s squad is still very good. Yes, they don’t have the star quarterback we’ve been accustomed to seeing, such as Bryce Young, Tua Tagovailoa or Mac Jones, but they’re still solid. FPI has them ranked third in the nation, ahead of Texas. SP+ pegs Bama as a top five team. They rank 12th in efficiency, buoyed by their sixth-ranked defense.
This is not the offensive power Alabama that we saw under previous offensive coordinators Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian. Instead, this squad is a return to the smashmouth, defense first teams we saw in the BCS era, led by backs like Derrick Henry and Mark Ingram.
Bottom line? Alabama is still very good. But, downfalls do not occur overnight, especially at this level. Both Alabama and Clemson have showed cracks, especially at the quarterback position. Can you win at the highest level of college football without a top-tier quarterback? We’re going to find out down the stretch. But I don’t think you can, and we’re seeing that whenever these two powers go up against top competition.
Real or Fake: Coach Prime’s Colorado Strategy is Working?
Fake. Listen, Colorado and Coach Prime was a great story and all, but we’ve moved onto bigger and better things. Like Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift. Now that’s something deserving of a newsletter.
In all seriousness, the Buffaloes surprised everyone with their Week 1 win over TCU. They kept the train rolling against Nebraska and Colorado State with two more wins. Then, they hit a buzzsaw against two top-10 foes in Oregon and USC, and dropped to 3-2.
Did anyone expect Colorado to compete with USC or Oregon? No, they did not. And I’m not holding those losses against the Buffs. Instead, I’m taking aim at their quality of wins.
TCU is a quality team, but they went up against the biggest unknown in modern college football history. There was no way to scout a team with 80+ new players. Yet the game still came down to the last moment, as Colorado eked out a 45-41 win in Fort Worth. Nobody could’ve saw this coming, and the win probability graph had TCU favored almost until the last second.
Their home opener against Nebraska wasn’t really a contest, but Nebraska also isn’t a good football team. The Huskers misplaced their trust in Jeff Sims at quarterback, and Colorado made them pay for it, forcing four turnovers on the day.
Then came the biggest red flag for me, an overtime win over Colorado State after making a ton of comments about how personal this game was. Colorado State sits at 2-2 currently, but ranks 103rd in SP+. Not great. The Rams have an anemic defense that’s allowing more points than they score, yet Colorado still struggled to put away their in-state rivals. It took until overtime in a game that a Top 25 team shouldn’t struggle in for the Buffs to come out on top. It took a miracle comeback for Colorado, who was down eight with two minutes to go, to force overtime.
Yes, good teams win games. But good teams don’t struggle with a program like Colorado State. That’s not to say the Buffaloes don’t have talent, because they do. Shedeur Sanders is a great player. Travis Hunter, who was injured in the Colorado State game on a late hit, is one of the nation’s best playmakers. They’re just not there yet.
Real or Fake: Texas is back?
Real. And boy, are they back.
Texas is finally, really back. Their win over Alabama stamped it, and they went on to stop everyone else that’s been in their path so far. That lands Texas the number one resume so far, including an FBS-leading five FBS wins. They have two ranked wins, both by double-digits against Alabama by 10 and then-No. 24 Kansas by 26. Oh, and that Kansas win is Texas’s biggest over an AP Top-25 foe since 2009, when the Colt McCoy-led Longhorns knocked off No. 14 Oklahoma State 41-14.
How is Texas so good? Well, a top-10 offense and defense, per SP+ doesn’t hurt. Quinn Ewers has finally settled into a semblance of consistency, completing 66 percent of his passes so far, up from 55 last season. Tailback Jonathon Brooks is filling in nicely for NFL fantasy stud Bijan Robinson, and Xavier Worthy is still one of the nation’s most dangerous wideouts.
The biggest story, or non-story, is the fact that the Texas defense is not playing like a Big 12 team should. They’ve only allowed 12.8 points per game, good for 12th in the nation. Coupling that with an offense that’s putting 36.0 points on the board each outing, and you get a legitimate title contender.
Whether you’re ready or not, Texas is back and making a run for the playoffs. This weekend’s Red River Shootout against Oklahoma, who also is seeing a resurgance, should be prime viewing action.
Real or Fake: USC is a National Title Contender?
Fake. Texas might be back, but I don’t think it’s time to script a 2005 rematch for this year’s national championship.
Caleb Williams and the Trojan offense is good. Very good. In fact, their 53.6 points per game is the best in the nation. The only problem is someone is still letting Alex Grinch run this defense.
It hasn’t quite come back to haunt USC yet, but this defense is not championship-caliber. It almost blew the Colorado game on Saturday for the Trojans, letting Shedeur Sanders and the Colorado offense keep up in a 48-41 track meet.
Want some numbers? The Trojans defense ranks 103rd in yards allowed (404.4 per game) and 63rd in scoring (24.2 ppg). That’s not a championship caliber defense.
Yes, Williams and company are on an absolute tear, but what if they have a down game? This is not a defense that can be counted on to keep opponents out of the end zone, nor is it a squad that is forcing a ton of turnovers or short fields. Instead, all the pressure resides on the offense.
If that sounds familiar, it’s because that’s the Lincoln Riley formula. And, for reference, Riley-led teams have made three College Football Playoff appearances: 2019 63-28 semifinal loss to LSU. 2018 45-34 semifinal loss to Alabama, and 2017 54-48 overtime semifinal loss to Georgia. Consistently, defense has won in the playoff. Riley’s teams haven’t had that, and this one doesn’t either.
We’ll know for sure once USC gets deeper into conference play, as they face high-octane offenses in Notre Dame, Washington and Oregon later on. There’s also a sneaky scary game at home against Utah looming. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Trojan defense falters against those teams, and they each have a much better defense than USC. While the Trojans look like the talk of the town now, I don’t think they make it into the PAC-12’s final title game.
Real or Fake: The SEC Won’t Have a Playoff Team
Real. This is a bold pick, but this is a very interesting year. And in the final season of the four-team playoff, I don’t think the SEC gets an invite into the big dance.
Let’s look at playoff contenders from down south: Georgia is still ranked highly and holds the AP Poll’s top slot, but struggled against rebuilding Auburn and South Carolina. They don’t have the historic defense they’ve enjoyed the past few years, as they’re all off terrorizing NFL coaches now. The Dawgs are also breaking in a new quarterback in Carson Beck who is playing good enough for now.
The only other team I can see right now jumping into CFP fray is Alabama, who we’ve discussed earlier. LSU had high hopes, but keep on losing. They’ve already got two losses and aren’t into the meat of their schedule. I think it’s fair to assume they’re out. Tennessee is sitting with one loss, but hasn’t had the same firepower on offense with Joe Milton leading the way. Ole Miss looked promising early, but just lost to LSU. There’s some dark horses like Missouri, Texas A&M and Kentucky sneaking into the SEC race, but will any of those truly ever have a shot at the playoff?
Looking outside the SEC makes the conference’s situation this season that much more dire. The Big 10 has three schools with legitimate playoff aspirations: Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. They’ll cannibalize, but I can easily see a one-loss, non-conference champion out of that bunch making the final bracket.
The PAC-12’s swan song season is insanely strong, with USC, Washington and Oregon staring down playoff bids, while Washington State and Utah can make runs in conference that will build their resume.
The Big 12 features a Texas team that already notched a win in Bryant-Denny and a strong-looking Oklahoma. The ACC has undefeated Florida State and North Carolina marching towards the conference title game. Who knows what resume Notre Dame can build as an independent with a narrow loss to Ohio State and matchups looming against Louisville, USC and Clemson?
To make a long story short, there’s a lot of good programs this year. And a lot of them are outside SEC country. This could be the first iteration of the playoff without an SEC school, and I could see the conference going down a similar path as the PAC-12 has in most recent seasons.