College Football Playoff Clinching Scenarios
Who needs to win to get in? What paths lead to chaos?
There’s not much between us and the College Football Playoff now. It’s just conference championship week and then Selection Sunday. With the penultimate CFP rankings now released, let’s take a look at who all are the contenders for the playoff, and what needs to happen to get each of them into the final field of four.
Lock
Teams (1): Georgia
This is the most chaotic playoff year we’ve seen, and it’s only going to get more chaotic once we’re into the conference championship slates. I don’t think there’s many locks in this situation, but I’d wager there’s one team that is vastly closer to that than any other: Georgia.
The Dawgs have held the top spot in the AP Poll and Playoff Polls for most of this season, and rightfully so. Even though they don’t have the historic defense of years past and are breaking in a new quarterback in Carson Beck, Georgia has been very dangerous. They’re one of three contenders that carry unblemished records and have been dominating the SEC since a scare against Auburn all the way back in October.
Need more? They’re top ten in both scoring offense (39.6 - seventh) and scoring defense (15.8 - sixth). Their offense is lethal and the defense is just as dangerous. They haven’t had too many tests this year, but a 30-21 win over No. 9 Missouri and a resounding 52-17 win over Ole Miss puts the Dawgs in prime running for a playoff bid.
But what if they lose the SEC Championship to Alabama? I think a close loss to the 12-1 and Top 10 Crimson Tide won’t hurt the Dawgs’ chances too much. They’ll drop to fourth, most likely, but I don’t think it’s enough to keep them out of the big dance. Especially if conference championship week breeds other chaos.
Win and In
Teams (5): Michigan, Washington, Oregon, Alabama, Florida State
I’ll be honest, I struggled with where to place Washington. If they beat Oregon again, they’re easily in. If they lose to Oregon, the committee has a tough decision to make. If Georgia also loses, who do they choose between the Huskies and the Dawgs?
Let’s move to a more obvious one: Michigan. The Wolverines eked out a narrow win over arch-rival Ohio State in The Game that puts them on the playoff’s doorstep. A loss to Iowa in Indianapolis, though, pushes them out of the picture entirely. Even with Hamburger-gate and the Connor Stalions mess, Michigan has the feel of a team of destiny. With their khaki-clad leader on the sidelines, I think they get the win. A loss will likely put them out, though.
The PAC-12 Championship is perhaps the second CFP game of the season after The Game. The winner is in. The loser is not. Since their first meeting, it’s been two very different stories for Washington and Oregon. Washington came out on top, but has struggled against inferior opponents. Oregon, on the other hand, has looked like the best team in the nation.
Alabama has the best chance to make a splash with a win over Georgia, which likely vaults the Tide into the Top Four. Especially with one of the PAC-12 teams ahead of them losing, a win guarantees Nick Saban’s squad yet another playoff berth. Whether or not it impacts Georgia remains to be seen.
Finally, we have the least likely team in the group: Florida State. Now, they’re a great team, don’t get me wrong. But they lost Jordan Travis to a gruesome leg injury. Can they hold off Louisville with backup Tate Rodemaker under center? The defense certainly has enough to stop the Cardinals, but the offense has moved down a peg since Travis’s injury. Can they keep up in such a big spot?
Need Some Help
Teams (1): Texas
Texas is certainly Back with a capital “B,” but I don’t think this is the year that the Longhorns break through into the playoff. The committee isn’t valuing Steve Sarkisian’s team too highly, as they clock in at seventh in their conference championship rankings.
Texas has one loss to Oklahoma, which looks worse by the day. Their win over Alabama, though, is only looking better as the season goes on. They’ve run through the Big 12 with ease, aside from a slip-up against Oklahoma and a three-and-a-half game stretch where quarterback Quinn Ewers was out with a sprained AC joint. The committee shouldn’t hold that over them too much, but Texas still needs help to get into the final dance.
What kind of help gets Texas in, though? That’s tough. I’d say, discounting the Oregon-Washington matchup where one is guaranteed to win and one is to lose, the Longhorns need two other teams above them to lose to comfortably sneak into the playoff. It would really help if Alabama was one of those teams, as the committee has consistently ranked Texas ahead of the Tide all season. Then, either a Louisville upset of the Jordan Travis-less Florida State or Iowa putting it together against Michigan would likely get the Longhorns in.
Outside Looking In
Teams (1) : Ohio State
The Game, as Gus Johnson declared before kickoff, really was the first College Football Playoff Game. Michigan came out on top after a Rob Moore picked off a Kyle McCord pass over the middle with 25 seconds remaining.
That win sent Michigan to the Number 2 slot in the CFP Rankings, while Ohio State dropped largely out of contention down to 6. It also sent Michigan to Indianapolis and put Ohio State on the couch for this weekend.
We have seen teams jump into the playoff from home in the past, but this year feels different. There are eight legitimate playoff contenders this year. Ohio State lands at sixth in the rankings, but they’re dead last in terms of making the playoff.
So what do the Buckeyes need to happen? There aren’t a ton of scenarios that land Ohio State in the top five, so let’s take a look at what makes them the closest to a lock as possible.
Michigan beats Iowa. Ohio State needs that Quality Loss to stay quality.
Oklahoma State tops Texas. OSU schools unite to fully push Texas out of the playoff.
Louisville beats Florida State. This one is getting more likely with Tate Rodemaker dealing with a possible injury. Plus, the playoff slotting Louisville at 14 likely eliminates the Cardinals from contention, especially considering they would be playing a second- or third-string quarterback in the ACC Championship.
Washington beats Oregon. A two-loss Oregon is likely eliminated. Two one-loss PAC-12 teams clouds the field too much.
Georgia beats Alabama. The Dawgs knock out the other main competitor to Ohio State’s fourth bid.
If all that happens, I expect the rankings to shake out as:
Georgia
Michigan
Washington
Ohio State
There’s some chaos that can get the Bucks in, but I think it’s incredibly unlikely. As for which results could go the other way and still get Ohio State in, I think there isn’t much wiggle room. Would Alabama hop the Buckeyes with an upset over No. 1 Georgia? Certainly. How much does a Michigan loss hurt Ohio State? The committee has heavily aligned with head-to-head wins and losses when the records are the same, and they’ve said they value conference championships. Either way, I think there’s too much that has to go exactly right for Ohio State to get in.
Who do you think gets into the playoffs? And who are you rooting for to come out on top of the last four-team playoff?