CFB Bracketology: Week 11
Breaking down conference and at-large races with playoff stakes
The playoff hunt got officially kicked off with the release of the first College Football Playoff Committee rankings of the 12-team era on Monday. A majority of the teams in the field are shared between myself and the committee, but there are a few discrepancies here and there.
As a reminder, here are the seeding rules on how we end up with the field of 12:
Five highest ranked conference champions. Note these do not have to be the Power Four and one Group of Five. These are just the flat five best.
Seven at-large teams as determined by CFP rankings.
The top four conference champions, regardless of conference, get bye weeks.
With that said, here’s how the bracket currently stands with my Week 11 rankings:
Which teams are on the verge of getting in? And who’s hanging by a thread? Let’s go conference by conference.
ACC
In Right Now: Miami*, SMU
In The Hunt: Clemson
Pray for Chaos: Louisville, Pittsburgh
There’s two ACC teams in the field right now, but I think this is a clear one-big league. Miami and SMU both have clear paths to the title game as undefeated, conference-leading teams that don’t see each other this season. I think the winner gets in and the loser has to hope for at-large chaos. Miami is better positioned than SMU, but there’s a lot out of their control if we’re talking at-large.
Clemson is still fully in the conference race, but would need one of Miami or SMU to lose. I think they have playoff-level talent, but the loss to Louisville is complicating their path. I don’t think an at-large bid is in the cards with how everything is shaking out right now, but it’s not out of the question.
Things get more complicated with Louisville and Pittsburgh. They’re higher ranked in the CFP than Clemson, but I have Pittsburgh out of the Top 25. They’ll need a conference championship to get in, most likely. Louisville needs the most, with either three losses to Miami (i.e., the Canes losing out) or two to SMU. Pittsburgh really just needs to jump SMU, which will take two losses by the Mustangs.
Biggest Remaining Games: Miami at Georgia Tech (Nov. 9), Clemson at Pittsburgh (Nov. 16), Pittsburgh at Louisville (Nov. 23)
Big Ten
In Right Now: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon*, Penn State
In The Hunt: N/A
Pray for Chaos: Iowa, Minnesota
I think the Big Ten race just got a lot easier with Michigan and Illinois losing last weekend.
At this point, it’s hard to see how any of the four teams in the playoff right now get bounced. Maybe if Ohio State loses to Indiana? But then the Buckeyes’ two losses are to Top Five teams and they have a win over Penn State. There aren’t too many major games left for these four teams, and with three losses between them, they’re as close to playoff locks as we have.
Things get interesting if we introduce some chaos. If those teams start losing games left and right, these two could, hypothetically, swoop in. Iowa won’t see any of the teams ahead of them, so would need a miracle. Minnesota would have a win over Penn State, but the loss to Iowa would hurt them. A single loss will eliminate these teams. Even the top four winning might close the cover on these two’s hopes and dreams.
Biggest Games Remaining: Indiana at Ohio State (Nov. 23)
Big 12
In Right Now: BYU*
In The Hunt: Colorado, Iowa State
Pray for Chaos: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Kansas State, Texas Tech
BYU is unbeaten and in pole position of what’s shaking out to be a one-bid league. If they win out, the spot is theirs.
Waiting in the wings are Iowa State and Colorado. Both have only one loss in conference. The remaining games for both are winnable, so we’ll potentially get into the tiebreaker weeds for a spot in the Big 12 title game here. Right now, Colorado gets the nod based on winning percentage against common Big 12 opponents, but they share a lot of opponents down the stretch. But make no mistake, both teams need to win out.
Speaking of winning out, these remaining three teams need it to stay alive. Arizona State hasn’t and won’t play either, so they’re hoping for losses. Cincinnati lost to Colorado and will see Iowa State later this season. Kansas State already lost to Colorado and plays Iowa State in Farmageddon to close the season. Texas Tech’s fate is decided this weekend against Colorado, where a win puts them right behind Iowa State.
The Big 12 may be a one-bid league, but the conference race is going to be tight until the very finish.
Biggest Remaining Games: Colorado at Texas Tech (Nov. 9), Cincinnati at Iowa State (Nov. 16), Kansas State at Arizona State (Nov. 16), BYU at Arizona State (Nov. 23), Cincinnati at Kansas State (Nov. 23), Kansas State at Iowa State (Nov. 30)Cinc
SEC
In Right Now: Georgia*, Tennessee, Texas
In The Hunt: Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Pray for Chaos: Missouri, Vanderbilt
Boy, is the top of the SEC a mess of one-loss teams.
I’ve got three in, but I really think this will shake out to be the two SEC Champion entrants and one or two at-large bids. Right now, it’s Georgia and Texas A&M in the SEC title game with five in-conference wins, but that’s just based on how the schedule’s played out thus far. With Texas and Tennessee as one-loss overall teams, I think they’ve got a better grip on at-large spots than Texas A&M, which likely needs a loss ahead of them to get in.
This weekend’s Alabama-LSU game is all but an elimination game. It’s hard to see either one staying in the at-large race with three losses. The same goes for Ole Miss against Georgia this weekend.
But Vanderbilt and Missouri technically have the smallest, razor-thin margin to sneak into the SEC title game. It’ll involve oodles of chaos, but it’s still an option. Obviously, both need to win out. Vandy needs either Texas or Georgia to lose one and their wins over LSU and Tennessee would get them to Atlanta. Missouri needs Texas A&M and Alabama to lose to clear the race out, but one of Georgia, LSU, Tennessee or Texas would have to drop a game to let the Tigers in. That’s a lot to ask.
Biggest Remaining Games: Georgia at Ole Miss (Nov. 9), LSU at Alabama (Nov. 9), Tennessee at Georgia (Nov. 16), Vanderbilt at LSU (Nov. 23), Texas at Texas A&M (Nov. 30), Vanderbilt at Tennessee (Nov. 30)
PAC-12/FBS Independent
In Right Now: Notre Dame
In The Hunt: N/A
Pray for Chaos: Washington State
Notre Dame is in the bracket with some luck, but they can hold onto that spot. A win over ranked Army boosts the resume some, even if it’s expected, to make three ranked wins for the Irish. Without a conference championship game, winning out is a must.
Washington State is in the hope and pray section with the longest odds of anyone this side of the Group of Five chaos tier. Like we discussed last week, Texas Tech is the only major win that Wazzu can rest their hat on, but the Red Raiders’ win over Iowa State makes this more realistic. If Texas Tech and Boise State - Washington State’s only loss - keep winning along with the Cougars, with the right amount of 2007-level chaos, Washington State could sneak in.
Biggest Remaining Games: Army at Notre Dame (11/23), Texas Tech’s entire schedule.
Group of Five
In Right Now: Boise State*
In The Hunt: Army*, Tulane
Pray for Chaos: Louisiana*, Western Kentucky*
Another week, another Boise State win to tighten their grip on the fifth conference champion bid. Plus, if BYU is to take a dive and the Big 12 breeds chaos, the Broncos might be able to leap into a first-round bye. Wouldn’t that be exciting?
But they have to win out. If they don’t the American champion is most likely to get in. Right now, I think that’s either Army or Tulane. The Black Knights are weathering an injury to star quarterback Bryson Daily, but remain unbeaten and snagged a spot in the first CFP Top 25. Tulane has losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma - both ranked at the time - so they’re in a similar situation to Boise State relying on quality losses. The bad news is both those losses have diminished in quality in recent weeks. But the Green Wave are playing well and could push for a playoff bid if Boise State slips up.
Over in the Sun Belt, it’s Louisiana’s race to lose. At 7-1, they’re the only team that could likely get in from the conference, but the loss to Tulane and no ranked opponents will hurt the Ragin’ Cajuns.
Western Kentucky at 6-2 has the longest odds of anyone here, but it’s still technically possible. But they got trounced 63-0 by Alabama to open the season in their only ranked matchup. If everyone ahead of them in this exercise loses out, they can get in. A win by any will be the nail in the coffin for the CUSA’s playoff hopes.
As we discussed last week, the MAC is already out of the playoff hunt, but the #MACtion race will be fun to watch.
What I’m Reading:
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I'd like if the playoff could implement a system where there would be no rematches, like baseball used to. For instance, in round one with these standings, Ohio State would get the worst opponent that isn't Big Ten, which in this case would still be Boise. Texas would get the worst non-SEC team, which is still Penn State, etc.. In this case it wouldn't change anything, but some years it will.
I'd like this in round two as well. Oregon gets the worst non-Big Ten team left, then Miami would get the worst non-ACC, then Georgia would get the worst non-SEC (if there are any), and BYU would take whoever is left. Nobody wants playoff rematches. Nothing can be done once Final Four time comes, but before that we can warp the format to avoid them, like baseball used to (and still should).
Let's say the round one winners are Ohio State, Indiana, SMU, and Texas. My system would prevent Miami from playing SMU twice in a row. Instead, Oregon would get SMU. Miami would get Indiana (which TOTALLY isn't why I've dreamed up this whole scenario. Pinky promise. Fingers crossed. You don't believe me? I wouldn't either). Georgia would skip over the Texas rematch to play Ohio State. BYU would get Texas.
Maybe there's some who would like getting both an SEC Championship and ACC Championship rematch, but I'm not one of those people. Plus, Indiana would get the chance to prove they're better than Miami.
I like my format a lot better than theirs.