CFB Bracketology: Week 10
Breaking down conference and at-large races with playoff stakes
Each and every week, we cull the playoff herd more and more. Conference races are the most involved with more teams in the hunt, but the at-large bids are also a slog right now. We have an idea of who’s going to get in, but with so much still to play and up in the air, there’s a ton of games worth monitoring.
As a refresher, here are the criteria the selection committee will use to choose the 12 programs heading to the postseason field:
Five highest ranked conference champions. Note these do not have to be the Power Four and one Group of Five. These are just the flat five best.
Seven at-large teams as determined by CFP rankings.
The top four conference champions, regardless of conference, get bye weeks.
With that said, here’s how the bracket currently stands with my Week 10 rankings:
But which teams are threatened? Let’s get into the conference races.
ACC
In Right Now: Miami*
In The Hunt: Clemson, Pittsburgh, SMU
Pray for Chaos: Louisville, Virginia Tech
The ACC was real crowded in last week’s Bracketology list, but the herd has thinned considerably. For one, Clemson’s idle week led to them getting the boot from the bracket, but I fully expect them to jump back into the “In Right Now” section.
Our In The Hunt section is primed both for ACC and at-large runs. SMU’s win over Duke was one of the biggest on the Mustangs’ schedule. If they win out, they’ll likely have a shot at an at-large bid or ACC championship bid based on how everything else shakes out and will have a win over Pitt. For the Panthers, their trip to Charlotte is more direct as they face SMU and Clemson. There’s not a win to hang a hat on yet, so they’ll need one or both to make an at large case.
Virginia Tech and Louisville are technically within striking distance, but would need an ACC Championship win to get in. For both, that means Miami losing out and wins head-to-head over Clemson while winning out. That’s a tall ask, but still within the realm of possibility
Biggest Remaining Games: Louisville at Clemson (Nov. 2), Pitt at SMU (Nov. 2), Clemson at Virginia Tech (Nov. 9), Louisville at Pitt (Nov. 23)
Big Ten
In Right Now: Indiana, Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon*
In The Hunt: Illinois
Pray for Chaos: Iowa, Michigan
The Big Ten’s in a weird spot since all the title competitors are already in this week’s bracket. Indiana has the most tenuous spot on that list, but they’ve done enough to play their way in and one loss of a team above them will vault the Hoosiers firmly in the playoff bracket.
Illinois technically has a shot at an at-large bid after the AP ranked them 24th following the loss to Oregon, but it’s a big ask. They don’t have any resume-boosting games left, so they're just barely above the pray for chaos tier.
Speaking of chaos, Iowa and Michigan need tons of it. And I mean tons. A Big Ten title is their only shot, which obviously means winning out. Iowa needs help, as they don’t see any of the four teams in the bracket right now. Michigan will see three of them, so really controls their own destiny. But a loss for either program all but eliminates them.
Biggest Remaining Games: Ohio State at Penn State (Nov. 2), Oregon at Michigan (Nov. 2), Michigan at Indiana (Nov. 9), Indiana at Ohio State (Nov. 23), Michigan at Ohio State (Nov. 30)
Big 12
In Right Now: BYU*, Iowa State
In The Hunt: Colorado, Kansas State
Pray for Chaos: Arizona State, Cincinnati, TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia
Despite the ranking flip-flop, this is a two-bid Big 12 so far. Neither BYU or Iowa State has slipped up and they’re not showing signs of that.
But Kansas State and Colorado are hot on their tails. Both could nab an at-large bid with some help, but with only one in-conference loss, they’re very much Big 12 Championship threats. Kansas State has a direct path with a season closing Farmageddon game, while Colorado has to hope for a BYU or Iowa State loss and a Kansas State loss to get to Jerryworld.
There’s a ton of teams waiting in the wings if one of these programs takes a dive. All of these need a conference title to get in, so we’re talking multiple losses by either BYU or Iowa State and at least one loss by Colorado or Kansas State to get in. Arizona State, Cincinnati and Texas Tech each play two of the four top dogs, while TCU and West Virginia are holding on for hope. If none of those four teams lose this week, TCU and West Virginia are looking at the ends of their playoff hopes.
Biggest Remaining Games: Iowa State at Texas Tech (Nov. 2), Colorado at Texas Tech (Nov. 9), Cincinnati at Iowa State (Nov. 16), Kansas State at Arizona State (Nov. 16), BYU at Arizona State (Nov. 23), Cincinnati at Kansas State (Nov. 23), Kansas State at Iowa State (Nov. 30)
SEC
In Right Now: Georgia*, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M
In The Hunt: Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss
Pray for Chaos: Arkansas, Missouri, Vanderbilt
Like the Big Ten, most of the teams in the SEC title race are already in save LSU, who only has one loss in the league. They have a lighter path, seeing only Alabama and Vanderbilt as the teams still in the race in their final four, but will need help to get in.
Alabama and Ole Miss are hunting for at-large bids as programs in the sub-20 rankings. With two conference losses, they’re all but eliminated in the SEC race, but have some resume-boosting capabilities. Alabama will need a win against LSU and to win out. Ole Miss will have to win out and top Georgia.
For the chaos tier, they’re all but eliminated. Arkansas is unranked, but will see Ole Miss, Texas and Missouri and has a win over Tennessee already on the docket. They’ll need multiple losses from LSU and Texas A&M for sure to get in. Missouri will need a loss from Alabama, three from Texas A&M, and the rest of the conference to suddenly forget how to play football. Vanderbilt requires a loss by Missouri and Alabama, two by Texas, and at least one by Georgia or two by Texas A&M while winning out to get in. Tall tasks all around in this tier.
Biggest Remaining Games: Ole Miss at Arkansas (Nov. 2), Georgia at Ole Miss (Nov. 9), LSU at Alabama (Nov. 9), Tennessee at Georgia (Nov. 16), Texas at Arkansas (Nov. 16), Vanderbilt at LSU (Nov. 23), Arkansas at Missouri (Nov. 30), Texas at Texas A&M (Nov. 30), Vanderbilt at Tennessee (Nov. 30)
FBS Independent/PAC-12
In Right Now: None
In The Hunt: Notre Dame
Pray for Chaos: Washington State
Neither of these programs have conference championship games, so they’re hunting for at large bids.
Notre Dame is in the best place of the two with a big win over Texas A&M on the resume. The loss to Northern Illinois is more and more puzzling by the week, but I think it’s one the committee can look past if the Irish keep dominating. They’ve got a likely ranked matchup against Army upcoming. A win there and the likely 11-1 Notre Dame with an impeccable 4-0 record against ranked opponents will be hard to leave out.
Washington State’s hopes are hanging on by a thread. They played a weak schedule, have no remaining ranked opponents, but hey, that Boise State loss is a quality loss now, right? Their hopes rest on their best win - Texas Tech. If the Red Raiders can make a run, maybe Washington State can ride their coattails with a head-to-head win to sneak into the field of 12.
Biggest Remaining Games: Army at Notre Dame (11/23), Texas Tech’s entire schedule
Group of Five
In Right Now: Boise State*
In The Hunt: Army*, Navy, Memphis, Tulane
Pray for Chaos: Louisiana*, Western Kentucky*
This is still Boise State’s race to lose. The Broncos survived against UNLV, putting them in the clear front of the race. As long as they win out, the playoff and Mountain West are theirs.
The American is probably Boise’s biggest threat to their playoff bid. Four teams are still in the hunt here: Army, Navy, Memphis and Tulane. Three of the four are in my most recent Top 25 rankings, with Navy in the Next Five Out. Whoever comes out on top here will be a serious threat to Boise, especially if the American championship is a ranked-on-ranked matchup.
Conference USA’s playoff hopes likely died with Liberty’s loss to Kennesaw State. A conference champion Western Kentucky could pose a threat, but with two losses and no ranked wins to be found, it’s unlikely.
The MAC’s playoff hopes are dead in the water with everyone sporting at least three losses. It’ll be a fun race down to the wire, but it won’t have playoff implications.
The Sun Belt’s hopes are on Louisiana’s shoulders. The Ragin’ Cajuns are in my Next Five Out, so they’re within reach. The only problem is there’s no other major competition in the Sun Belt. They’ll need the American and Mountain West races to plunge into chaos to jump at the fifth conference champion auto-bid.
Biggest Games Remaining: All Conference Championships, Tulane at Navy (11/16), Western Kentucky at Liberty (11/23), Memphis at Tulane (11/28), Louisiana at UL-Monroe (11/30)
What I’m Reading:
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An idea hatched after years of 12-hour days glued to the couch, Tyler Schuster puts his passion for the sport on full display, delivering big-picture ideas, weekly previews and gambling nuggets directly to your inbox.
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