2024 Conference Preview: SEC

Does it just mean more down south and are we doomed to an SEC-heavy playoff?

Georgia Bulldogs running back D'Andre Swift (7), runs through the LSU defense. Georgia Bulldogs vs LSU Tigers, Football, Tiger Stadium, October 13, 2018, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, Credit: Tammy Anthony Baker, Wikimedia Commons.

Down south, It Just Means More. Or, that’s what the SEC wants us to think and will continue telling us until further notice.

As we consolidate power towards superconferences, two stand above the rest: the Big 10, which we’ve already previewed, and the SEC. The SEC holds most of the South’s biggest programs, save for a few attempting to flee the ACC ship. And in that conference, there’s a ton of not only conference title contenders, but national favorites. But who is going to march into Atlanta to take the crown as SEC Champion? Let’s get into it.

Crème de la crème

Normally, there’s only two teams in the elite upper echelon. But this is the SEC. Things are different here.

We kick it off with both the SID Sports and AP Preseason Number One team, the Georgia Bulldogs. While Georgia got plenty of flak from numerous driving-related incidents in the offseason, that doesn’t detract from what they can do on the field. Georgia head coach Kirby Smart takes the crown as the best coach in the nation following Nick Saban’s retirement, and he hasn’t lost a game against an active head coach in five seasons. The Bulldogs also get back star quarterback Carson Beck, who hopes to lead what should be an unusually powerful Georgia offense. They return four starting offensive linemen, but will have to replace all-world tight end Brock Bowers. Oscar Delp may not be a huge downgrade there, though. The defense is a Georgia defense. They’re not as elite as some of Smart’s earlier units, but they’ll be one of the nation’s best. Look out folks, because Georgia is aiming for the Saban-era Alabama mantle.

Speaking of Saban, let’s turn to his first SEC stop in LSU. Now coached by Brian Kelly, the Bayou Bengals have their eyes on the prize. I have them ranked a little higher than the AP poll because I believe that the LSU defense is better than most give them credit for. I expect some early growing pains under new defensive coordinator Blake Baker - especially kicking the season off against USC - but this is a good unit. Harold Perkins is possibly the best defensive player in the nation. Greg Penn posted 12.5 TFLs last season to go with 178 tackles. Edge rusher Savion Jones is going to wreak havoc on opposing offensive fronts, and saftey Major Burns can do it all in the secondary. The offense, led by Garrett Nussmeier, returns four very good offensive linemen and most of the targets from Jayden Daniels’s Heisman run last season. Don’t sleep on LSU, they may have one of the most talented rosters in the SEC.

The SEC grew this year, and in came a blue-blood in Oklahoma. The Sooners are weathering a quarterback change from Dillon Gabriel (now at Oregon) to Jackson Arnold. The Sooners are a bit of a wildcard with only 44 percent of their offensive production back from last season. But this is a program led by defensive mastermind Brent Venables and returns 86 percent of its defensive production - third best mark in the nation. I expect the Sooners to be more of a defense-first team, which could play better in the SEC than in the Big 12. The combo of linebacker Danny Stutsman and defensive back Billy Bowman Jr. is going to be a nightmare for a lot of offenses. If Arnold plays like he flashed last year against Kansas State and in the Alamo Bowl, Oklahoma is going to be a very tough out.

Our other SEC newcomer also has a high shot at the title. That’s right folks, Texas is here. The Longhorns bring back Quinn Ewers, who is one of the nation’s top quarterbacks, fresh off a CFP Semifinal appearance. Ewers posted one of the best passing seasons in Texas history in 2023, and with another year in the Sarkisian system under his belt, I expect the Longhorns offense to be humming again. They do have to find a tailback, though, after both C.J. Baxter and Christian Clark suffered season ending injuries in preseason camp. Jaydon Blue, who’s seen limited action in 23 career games, is expected to be the top back now. Their returning production isn’t the best at 67 percent - tied for 34th in the nation - but this is Texas. They’ve recruited at an elite level since Sarkisian took over in 2021. I think they have enough high-caliber guys in the wings to weather the storm.

Let’s make a run, shall we?

Even with that large top tier with national title aspirations, the SEC has a ton of teams waiting in the wings for one slip up or one victory over a top team. These programs may have some flaws, but this is the SEC. Things can get crazy at the drop of the hat, especially without divisions bringing some form of stability.

It’s about time we head to Tuscaloosa, right? Alabama has seen the sunset of the Nick Saban era and the sun rise on the Kalen DeBoer era. DeBoer did a fantastic job keeping together the Tide’s recruiting and transfer class, aside from losing Caleb Downs to Ohio State, so this Alabama team is just as talented as they’ve been in the Saban era. Quarteback Jalen Milroe is back to lead the Crimson Tide offense, and I think he’s a great fit for the DeBoer system. His athleticism will shine even more than we saw with Michael Penix Jr. in Washington last year and he has the arm talent to make the necessary throws. Milroe is the key to getting this going, but is the Tide defense up to the challenge? The DeBoer system isn’t the friendliest to defenses as it tends to attack quickly and efficiently. Alabama has a ton of talent, but Kane Wommack is installing a new system. Early slip ups from growing pains could doom a team in the very tight SEC race.

Auburn, on the other hand, is in an interesting situation. It’s Year Two of the Hugh Freeze-era. They’ll lean on the rushing game, which took a big jump with Jarquez Hunter, who’s back again this year. Payton Thorne is the quarterback again, and while he played well last season, I don’t know if he can keep up with the top tier quarterbacks here like Beck, Milroe, Ewers and Arnold. Freeze’s teams have been able to keep up in a shootout in the past, but is Thorne the guy to hang with high octane offenses? That’s the problem with a run-heavy approach - sometimes the quarterback isn’t in a position to make a play when you need it. He’s got good targets like Keandre Lambert-Smith, but I also have worries on the defensive side. That starts with D.J. Durkin, who shouldn’t have a job. But this isn’t a championship caliber defense yet. If all goes well, they could make a run, but I wouldn’t anticipate it in 2024.

Ole Miss has undisputable talent from the nation’s top transfer class per 247Sports, but they’re also relying on new faces in major spots. There’s stud transfers all over the place, including five-star edge rusher Walter Nolan, but these players have to gel soon. Lane Kiffin may be the right guy for the job and the Rebels at least have some stability from quarterback Jaxson Dart returning. Somehow, though, even with the nation’s best transfer class and 31 incoming transfers, Ole Miss is tied for 16th in the nation in returning production. Kiffin has worked at turning over his roster and building depth, and I think he’s finally getting to that elite level. We’ll see this season if the transfers can fit into the picture and put together a solid team showing for Ole Miss.

Missouri was the best surprise of last season and the Tigers very well could repeat that again here. Eliah Drinkwitz’s team bring back a ton of its high-powered offense - 82 percent of it, to be exact - namely the lethal duo of quarterback Brady Cook and wideout Luther Burden III. I think Burden is the best wideout in the nation (sorry Ohio State fans) and even SEC corners and secondaries will struggle mightily stopping him. They also grabbed dynamic tailback Nate Noel from Appalachian State to replace Cody Schrader, who balled out last year after walking on as a transfer from Division II Truman State. One thing to note: the Tigers play a very light SEC schedule with their only real struggles coming in a three-game stretch at home against Auburn, on the road at Alabama and at home against Oklahoma. I could see Missouri racking up wins to reach the title game. But they’ll need their defense to step up to take the next step this year.

Tennessee took a step back in 2023 after a very good 2022 including a win over Alabama, but Josh Heupel’s Vols are ready to get back to winning in 2024. They gradute quarterback Joe Milton and turn to the five-star dubbed their program savior in Nico Iamaleava. Iamaleava got the start in the Citrus Bowl and absolutely shredded the vaunted Iowa defense. Normally, I don’t put much stock into bowl game performances, but a true freshman lighting up Iowa for 35 points and setting Tennessee bowl records for rushing scores is something to watch. If that is what Tennessee gets out of Iamaleava this season, look out, because the Vols will be virtually impossible to stop. They just need to help out the defense more. Heupel’s veer and shoot system is a double edged sword- it allows the offense to strike at any time, but the Volunteers finished 130th in time of possession. Leaving their defense out that long isn’t going to cut it this season.

Our final team that could make a run is one I don’t think will do it this year, but could if all falls well and a little chaos is sprinkled in. We’re talking about Texas A&M. The Aggies have a first-year head coach in Mike Elko, but Elko orchestrated a near-immediate turnaround at Duke. He’s also no stranger to Bryan-College Station, where he served as defensive coordinator from 2018-21 and the Aggis ranked top-30 in total defense each season. With a ton of talent still there, I expect the Texas A&M defense to be just as stifiling as it was last time Elko took over. The main difference here, though, is the quarterback. Conner Weigman didn’t get a ton of playing time last season as he battled injuries and other quarterbacks, but his limited playing time showed a young signal caller that could. The biggest hurdle for Weigman? Health. He suffered season-ending injuries each of his first two seasons. If that happens again, the Aggies hopes of surprising will be dashed. If Weigman stays healthy, though, and the Elko defense does Elko defense things, Texas A&M might have a claim to an SEC Championship bid.

They are who we think they are

With the SEC as strong as it is, and with the programs having as much money as they do, coaches can stick around a lot. Sometimes, that leads to program stagnation, for better or for worse. In the SEC, there’s a threesome of programs that I feel like we can peg year in and year out.

We’ll start that list with the most controversial one here, Florida. While Billy Napier hasn’t been in Gainesville long, only three years, Florida has fallen into a mid-tier SEC program since Urban Meyer’s “health-” related retirement. They’ve beaten a few teams they shouldn’t and lost to a few teams they shouldn’t each season since then. With what I see as the nation’s hardest schedule, I think the Gators are going to fall into that mid-tier once again. That’s no fault of their own, but they’re not ready to stare down the barrell at the following gauntlet to close the season: vs. Georgia, at Texas, vs. LSU, vs. Ole Miss, at Florida State. That doesn’t count earlier season battles against Miami, Texas A&M, UCF (who I think is going to be pretty good) and Tennessee. Six wins on that schedule will be the goal, and anything past that should be welcomed.

Kentucky is perhaps the most “we know exactly who you are” program there is. Mark Stoops has led the Wildcats for 12 seasons and I think he’s bordering on a lifer in Lexington. As with any Stoops-led program, the Wildcats lean on a stifling defense. In fact, the Kentucky defensive unit has allowed 26 points or fewer per game in six straigh seasons. Across that same period of time, opponents have rushed for under 160 yards per game. In the SEC, that’s very impressive. But, with any Kentucky team, the defense isn’t the question. It’s the offense. They have a new offensive coordinator in Bush Hamdan who is tasked with breathing life into the Wildcat offense. He’ll do that with Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff under center. He’s had limited action in the last three seasons in Athens, but was named the Kentucky starter. They’ll likely lean on Ohio State transfer Chip Trayanum to establish a hard-nosed running game, but that lands them back where they always are: in the 30-40 range of rankings and sneaking into the Top 25 once a season.

Beamer Ball is still alive in Columbia for South Carolina, but not much done by Shane Beamer has changed the Gamecocks’ fortunes. Like Florida, South Carolina is a mid-tier SEC program. They’re following up a 5-7 season, but made some staff moves to improve on that. Beamer hired former Georgia State head coach Shawn Elliott to revamp a slacking defense, Marquel Blackwell as running backs coach to improve recruiting and Mike Furrey to take receiver growth to the next level. The Gamecocks have a budding star there in athletic freak Nyck Harbor. Overall, South Carolina returns 14 starters and 44 letterwinners and have the second-most seniors in the nation. I don’t know if there’s enough here for the Gamecocks to improve on their 5-7 mark, but I’d say returning to a bowl should be the clear goal for Year Three under Beamer.

Starting from scratch

With the SEC’s deep pockets, coaches don’t often leave unless they have to. That’s particularly true this year, with only one first-year head coach facing a true gut job (good luck in Bryan-College Station, Mike Elko!)

That team is Mississippi State, led by first-year head man Jeff Lebby. Lebby hails from the Art Briles tree (don’t look too deep at that) and runs a very high octane offense similar to what Mike Leach brought to Starkville. It’s time that the Bulldogs move away from the pro-style scheme that Zach Arnett tried and failed to run. With that said, this is a much of a gut job as you’d see in the Power Two. Lebby’s Bulldogs only return three starters from lat year - all on defense. Their quarterback is journeyman Blake Shapen, who has experience in the Briles-Lebby scheme. The Bulldogs are going to take their lumps in Year One, facing six AP top 25 teams (at Georgia, at Texas, at Ole Miss, vs. Missouri, at Tennessee, vs. Texas A&M). Don’t expect much here, but Lebby deserves some time to install his scheme and his guys.

Battling to bowl

Surprisingly, there are two SEC programs that I am not high on. I’m sure you can guess one, but the other might shock you.

And that shocking program is Arkansas. In all honestly, I thought it was a lock that the Razorbacks moved on from Sam Pittman last season, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see his name among the first coaches without jobs and riding the carousel. But, to Pittman’s credit, he did what he needed to set up the Razorbacks for success. They lost longtime starting quarterback K.J. Jefferson to the portal, but adding Boise State’s Taylen Green fills that void. They’re going to lean on a transfer class headlined by Green, but also post major contributor tailback Ja’Quinden Jackson from Utah. Landon Jackson is one of the nation’s best pass rushers, but the Arkansas defense needs more than just him. Even more than that, the Razorbacks need to hold onto the ball. They were one of the worst teams in the nation when it came to fumbles and their turnover differential landed in the lower half of the nation. Fix that and Pittman may save his job. If that's a long-term symptom, though, I think Arkansas decides to hit the reset button.

Vanderbilt is the long-standing punching bag of the SEC. But could that be changing? Well, a stadium renovation certainly helps now that it’s finished. The Commodores also return 72 percent of their surprisingly strong defense from a year ago. The offense is going to be the question mark here and I’m actually really intrigued to see what Clark Lea decides to do. One one hand, we have uber-talented Utah transfer Nate Johnson, who played okay in limited action. Most of his value came on the ground, but a 46.3 QBR isn’t enough, especially in the SEC. Battling Johnson is New Mexico State transfer Diego Pavia, who I think is one of the nation’s most underrated passers. Sure, he only ranked 57th in QBR with a 62.9 mark, but Pavia threw for nearly 3,000 yards, 26 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. He improved each stat from his first season leading the Aggies. One of the two is going to lead the Commodores out. Pavia is the safer bet - he’s a known quantity but has limitations. Johnson, however, is the high upside guy. Vandebilt isn’t going to compete in the SEC yet, but this decision will show a lot about how the program is trending. Are they going to play it safe with Pavia and fight for a bowl bid? Or are they shooting for the stars with Johnson in a hope to kickstart a doormat program?

So there you have it. The SEC broken down as best as possible for 2024. Who do you think wins it? How many SEC teams land in the first 12-team CFP field? If there’s anything I missed or you want to see in later conference breakdowns, let me know by leaving a comment, sending a message, or checking in on social media!

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