2024 Conference Preview: Conference USA
What does CUSA Chaos look like in 2024?
Where are my small school fans at? Conference USA is one that’s often overlooked and it really shouldn’t be. This is a fun conference that gives us a lot of interesting football to watch. Plus, they’re going to fill up the midweek football fixes until November rolls around and we get the king of Group of Five football: Midweek MACtion.
Crème de la crème
Even though the CUSA isn’t known for its strength, there is a legitimate playoff contender here. They’re the runaway favorite to win the conference and I would be shocked to see them not in the playoff race come November. In fact, they’d have a ticket to the dance last year if we were in a 12-team field.
And that team is Liberty. The Flames finally have a conference home after being independent for most of their FBS existence, and boy are they taking advantage of it. They’ve got a high-level X’s and O’s guy in Jamey Chadwell that will keep the Flames at the top of the Group of Five landscape. The only reasons Chadwell likely hasn’t jumped ship yet is: a) Liberty is a private school with a ton of donors funneling money into sports, leading to a $4 million annual contract for Chadwell - by far the largest in the Group of Five by Sports Illustrated’s metrics - and 2) he runs a funky shotgun triple option thing that probably scares teams away. On the field, the Flames are run though talented dual-threat quarterback Kaidon Salter, who threw for 2,800 yards, ranked ninth in the nation in QBR, and added 1,089 yards and 12 scores on the ground. Pair Salter with junior tailback Quinton Cooley, who paced Liberty with 1,401 rushing yards and 16 scores, and you get one of the nation’s most lethal offenses. They just need the defense to answer the call to make a playoff run.
Let’s make a run, shall we?
It takes two to tango in a conference championship game, though, so who does Liberty draw? In all reality, most CUSA teams could make that jump but I think there’s two that will be most likely to get there.
The first of those two has a new coach, a new quarterback, and very little returning production in New Mexico State. How does that land the Aggies in this tier? Because I believe in what Jerry Kill built. I’m not saying this is a team that is going to run the table and win a bunch of games - seven or eight is the absolute ceiling - but they could make some conference noise if the ball bounces the right way. Kill stepped down after back-to-back bowls in his two seasons in Las Cruces, allowing Tony Sanchez to step in as the new head coach. Kill is still involved in the program, which ensures continuity. But I am worried for the Aggies, who lost 39 players to the portal and rank 105th in the nation in returning production. They’re a bowl team, but that’s a high mark in the CUSA.
The other is Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers were running the show before Liberty showed up to ruin it all and they serve as the Flames’ biggest threat in-conference. They’re a team that’s going to air it out, serving as almost the antithesis for everything Chadwell’s Liberty stands for. But, for all intents and purposes, this is the clear second-best team in the conference. They rank mid-table in both SP+ and returning production after torching opposing defenses for 296 passing yards a game last season. I’d like to see a little more out of the defense, which ranked 86th in the nation in scoring defense before declaring them an official threat to Liberty’s crown. The Hilltoppers are also without the one-two combination of quarterback Austin Reed and wideout Malachi Corley, who both are currently on NFL rosters. Caden Veltkamp looked good in limited action under center, but who’s going to emerge as his top target?
They are who we think they are
In a conference with as much turnover as CUSA has, both in membership and the coaching ranks, any stability will jump you up to the rank above. That leaves us with a paltry one team here and they’re only here because they’re still in transition and ineligible to make a run for the conference title.
Of course, I’m talking about Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks are led by a familiar face in Rich Rodriguez, and that’s all you really need to know. I’m sure you know exactly what’s going on in Jacksonville, Alabama now. For those that don’t, though, let’s break it down. Jacksonville State is going to run the zone read into the ground as Rich Rod always does. Senior Logan Smothers is going to take over, but he’s no Pat White. Smothers does have some rushing skills, but wasn’t great through the air. Rich Rod did bring in a host of three star prospects, but the class overall only clocks in at 127th in the composite. That has me worried. This scheme can catch teams off guard if the right players are in it, though, so there’s still hope for the Gamecocks. However, I think they need to focus more on roster building if they want to go bowling once their transition period comes to a close and they’re postseason eligible.
Starting from scratch
On the flip side from the last tier, there’s a ton of teams starting from scratch. Whether that’s because of a coaching change or an FBS transition that didn’t go so well, the CUSA is a place that harbors tear-downs and program architect projects.
We’ll start with the newest team in the FBS ranks - Kennesaw State. The Owls are gearing up for their first season in the sport’s highest subdivision after playing in the FCS Independent ranks the past few seasons. That didn’t go so well in their farewell season, though, as Kennesaw State left the FCS after a dismal 3-9 record. That doesn’t bode well for their transition, but they’re one of the few non-service academy programs across all football to run the true triple option. I don’t think Kennesaw has much in the tank for Year 1, but I am intrigued by their recruiting. Three of the top five rated recruits in school history by 247Sports are members of the 2024 class. They’re gearing up recruiting like an FBS team should. Give them a few years to build a competitive FBS program and then we’ll see how the transition goes.
Middle Tennessee State, however, doesn’t have that excuse. Both SP+ and FPI rank the Blue Raiders as one of the nation’s poorest teams. They also come in at 113th in returning production. Perhaps the only key piece returning from last season is quarterback Nicholas Vattiato, who threw for over 3,000 yards and rushed for 397 - second on the team. Just don’t look at his QBR, which clocked in at 44.5, good for 97th in the nation. The Blue Raiders did move on from longtime program leader Rick Stockstill and nabbed a solid hire in Derek Mason, who has a ton of top experience at the Power Four level. He’s a retread, but a quality defensive mind that’s done a great job at difficult jobs like Stanford as defensive coordinator and at Vanderbilt as head coach. Just give him some time to escalate the spending and image of this Middle Tennessee program.
Sam Houston joined the conference and the FBS ranks last season alongside Jacksonville State, but the Bearkats had a much harder transition. They started their FBS career with eight straight losses before a win over then-FCS Kennesaw State broke the trend. They got their first FBS win over Louisiana Tech the next week and finished the season 3-1. The Bearkats were outgained in each of their wins, though, which doesn’t bode well for the upcoming season. SP+ is the most bullish on Sam Houston, ranking them 110th, while FPI slots them at 130. They do rank 25th in returning production, though, which coupled with a year in the FBS ranks, could mean they’re ready to take a step. Not towards a conference title, though. Just towards contention. For the Bearkats, I think six wins this season is a massive success, but I’d take an improvement to four as a win.
Our final school starting fresh is UTEP, who hired 34 year old Scotty Walden away from FCS Austin Peay after a dismal end to the Dana Dimel era. The Miners have been at the bottom of the FBS, with only seven winning seasons in the last 50 and losing at least 10 games in 20 of those. They turn to Walden, who increased the Governors’ win totals in each of his four winning seasons. Walden inherits a clearly down team that needs to be rebuilt from the ground up. The Miners rank 118 in SP+, 111 in FPI and 125 in returning production. The cupboard is bare, and I’m not sure how Walden, a newcomer to big-time college football, is going to recruit. But, his up-tempo, high octane offenses might be a draw in and of themselves.
More on the FCS-FBS transition:
Battling to bowl
While there’s a lot of teams sitting at the bottom of the FBS ranks in CUSA, only two are in really inexplicably bad spots. UTEP is bad, but they’re starting fresh. These two programs need to give it a though.
Of all the programs in the nation that get a bad rap, FIU may be one of the hardest jobs to win at. They’re lost in the shuffle of Miami, have a massive commuter student base, and is led by an administration that former head coach Butch Davis feels is “sabotaging the program.” The Panthers have a new athletic director in Scott Carr, but the university has a reputation that senior leadership - including the university president - just don’t care to invest in sports. With that said, the Panthers are led by Mike MacIntyre, who has a track record of succeeding in tough places and strong ties to the Miami metro area recruiting. But after three years, the clock is starting to tick on MacIntyre. SP+ slots the Panthers in at 124 and FPI thinks the position is even more dire at 132 - third worst in the nation. A 34th ranking in returning production may not be enough to salvage that.
Finally, we come to Louisiana Tech, who hit rock bottom after a 3-9 season that included win against only FIU, UTEP, and FCS Northwestern State. Quarterback Hank Bachmeier is out after being poached in the portal by Wake Forest, and there’s not much there to replace him. The Bulldogs are a dismal 120th in returning production, which is emblematic of their 122nd rank in SP+ and FPI. Sonny Cumbie needs to make something happen, otherwise Louisiana Tech needs to start over.
So there you have it. Conference USA broken down for 2024. Who do you think wins it? And does anyone here have a shot at the 12-team playoff? Let me know in the comments below! And let me know
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