2024 Conference Preview: Big 12
How does the newly-assembled conference fare in a chaotic first full year?
If you’re looking for the conference with the most playoff chaos from Week Zero until the final field of 12 is announced, the Big 12 is for you. There is a clear top-tier in this conference, but the difference between Tier 1 and Tier 2 is the smallest in the Power Four. I think the Big 12 has a real shot of being a multi-bid league depending on how it shakes out, or it could fall to be the lowest ranked conference champion. A lot can happen here, so let’s get into it!
Crème de la crème
Even though this is a conference primed and ready for chaos, I think there are two programs that are better than the rest. Again, the degree of separation is minimal here, but it is clear enough to divide across tiers.
We’ll kick this list off with a Big 12 veteran, the Kansas State Wildcats. Head Coach Chris Klieman has done a great job taking over for Bill Snyder, the longtime architect of the Kansas State program. The Wildcats are without three-year starter Will Howard under center, but will run behind dynamic sophomore Avery Johnson. They also bring back 1,200 yard rusher D.J. Giddens. But that’s about it on offense, with returning production on that side of the ball ranking 123rd nationally. The defense, however, will stay strong, returning 80 percent of production, ranking fourth nationally. Most people don’t think defense in the Big 12, but that side of the ball will lead the Wildcats. But there’s a lot of question marks on offense. They have the talent, but can it all come together?
The other major Big 12 contender comes from the corpse of the PAC-12 in Utah. With the Holy War back on the docket, somehow the Big 12 feels like a good home for the Utes. They’ve built a really solid, but underrated program under longtime head coach Kyle Whittingham. Somehow, someway, Cam Rising is back. That enough is going to push the Utes up the rankings here. They also rank 16th in returning production overall, which oftentimes means a boost to their success. But this is a program that isn’t built on star power. Aside from Rising, there aren’t a lot of names that people will know, especially since pig farmer Bryson Barnes and uber-talented athlete Nate Johnson are both gone. Utah also brought in an underrated transfer class that ranked 34th, headlined by USC wideout Dorian Singer, who should be Rising’s top target in 2024. FPI and SP+ put the Utes in the bottom part of the Top 25, but they have a chance to make a solid run if Rising is healthy.
Let’s make a run, shall we?
That was pretty easy, right? Where’s the chaos? Well, this is the tier of chaos. The teams that will either win 10 games or six. They could finish the season with a trophy belt at Jerryworld, or they could be sitting at home during bowl season.
Arizona was hit in the fallout of Nick Saban’s retirement, as Washington poached former Wildcat head coach Jedd Fisch. Fisch had done a great job in his short time in Tucson, but I think Arizona is going to have a more seamless tradition than most. The Wildcats turned to former San Jose State coach Brent Brennan, which I think was one of the best hires this cycle. Brennan has shown that his teams can compete in the Mountain West at a tough job and has been incredibly stable. He inherits a team with a ton of potential and was able to retain at ton of key pieces, including quarterback Noah Fifita and wideout Tetairoa McMillan. However, Fisch gutted a lot of depth with his move to Washington. Brennan didn’t quite pull in the strongest transfer class to replace that, which worries me. This is going to be a high-flying offense, though, as Brennan hands the keys to his Air Raid kingdom to Fifita. That could be enough to shock some teams and make a run. Also, as a note, FPI slots Arizona at 24th. Not too shabby.
I’ll be the first to admit, I didn’t think Iowa State had much life left in the Matt Campbell era. Turns out, I was wrong. Iowa State has a budding star under center in Rocco Becht, who finished 37th in the nation in QBR as a true freshman. As long as Campbell can keep Becht in Ames, the Cyclones will go as far as he can take them. They also return the second-most production in the nation, behind only Virginia Tech, with a whopping 85 percent of production coming back. The Cyclones run a pass-heavy offense with Becht under center and a step in the running game to balance it out could help them immensely. Also of note: their defense was surprisingly solid last season and, as expected, returns a lot of production. This was a young team in 2023 that is primed and ready for a step in 2024. FPI isn’t too high on Iowa State, ranking them 47th, but SP+ puts the Cyclones in the Top 25 at 22 with the 18th best defense in the nation.
Lance Leipold was a common name coming up in the coaching carousel this past offseason but he elected to stay with Kansas and keep building a solid program. But he’s going to do it with a new offensive coordinator after Andy Kotelnicki was plucked away by Penn State. Leipold tabbed former Baylor offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes to lead the offense, and I’m a little concerned about it. He is a two-time Broyles Award finalist from BYU in 2020 and Baylor in 2021, but the Bears have regressed a lot since then. The Jayhawks do have a quality returning quarterback in Jalon Daniels, but the senior has struggled to stay healthy since taking over the starting job. FPI is bullish on the Jayhawks, ranking them 17th. I think a more realistic season clocks Kansas down with where SP+ has them ranked - 35th.
In all honesty, I wrote off Oklahoma State after a 37-0 drubbing by South Alabama of all teams early last season. Then, when they dropped a game to an Iowa State team I didn’t have a ton of faith in, I thought the Pokes were washed. How wrong I was. Despite a 2-2 start, Mike Gundy’s squad rattled off five straight wins and ended up at 9-3 and in the Big 12 Championship Game. A big reason for that? More consistent offensive production. The emergence of Ollie Gordon as one of the nation’s most talented players coincided with the Cowboys’ run. Plus, they got more consistently solid quarterback play out of Alan Bowman. With most of the team returning - their 77 percent returning production ranks fourth nationally - I’m thinking Oklahoma State could make a run back to Jerryworld. But why are they here? Because I just don’t believe in the defense. SP+ clocks the Pokes defense at 41st. This isn’t the Jim Knowles-led teams of the past, and with the Big 12 getting tougher with their new additions, I don’t know if a run-focused offense can keep pace in conference without a stifling defense.
TCU was everyone’s darling when Max Duggan stormed the Horned Frogs into the 2022 National Championship Game only to be curb-stomped by Georgia. 2023 had TCU fall back to earth in Year Two under Sonny Dykes. However, I think last year may have been an aberration. That’s not to say I’m projecting another Cinderella run from TCU - I’m not - but they’re going to improve. SP+ pegs them as the 35th team in the nation, but they’re tied for 19th in returning production with 71 percent comping back, mostly on the defensive side. However, Dykes hit the portal hard and retooled his entire secondary. If sophomore quarterback Josh Hoover can take another step for the Horned Frogs, they might be able to jump back to the top of the conference behind a stingy defense and improved offense.
Of all the new adds in the last Big 12 cycle, I think UCF is in the best place overall. They’ve got a strong coach in Gus Malzahn who believes in his program and their ability to succeed in the Power Four. And I believe him. Yes, the Knights have the least returning production in the conference at only 49 percent, but they also signed the conference’s second-best transfer class, graded at 51.39 by 247Sports. And this transfer class has some serious talent. The headliner is obviously former Arkansas quarterback K.J. Jefferson, but he’s got a strong new supporting cast in tailback Peny Boone (Toledo), wideouts Jacoby Jones (Ohio) and Goldie Lawrence (Florida State), and offensive linemen Jabari Brooks (Samford) and Wes Dorsey (Western Kentucky). Even more impressive is the defensive adds, with Malzahn snagging 13 players with at least an 85 grade, headlined by Miami edge rusher Nyjalik Kelly. I’d say the Knights have gotten a bunch of impact transfers that should help this team immensely. The only question is if they will be able to come together and mesh so quickly.
Our final “make a run” team is, surprisingly, West Virginia. Again, I didn’t have a lot of faith in Neal Brown’s program coming into this season. It seems like I should stop counting out Big 12 coaches, because they come back with a vengeance the next season. Brown’s Air Raid system finally took hold with Garrett Greene under center and Greene is ready to suit up again this season. The Mountaineers have 70 percent of their production back this season, tied for 22nd in the nation. Greene, the top two tailbacks in Jaheim White and C.J. Donaldson Jr., and top wideout Devin Carter are all ready to go in Morgantown again. In fact, a whopping 89 percent of their offensive production is back. With how the offense hummed last season, I would anticipate another step for West Virginia would put them in conference title contention. I am worried about their defense, though. The portal gutted a unit that already wasn’t great. Add in a weak transfer class that ranked 11th in the conference and 49th overall and I’m not sure they can keep up. The offense will score a lot, but can the defense stop anyone? If they can, look out for the Mountaineers.
They are who we think they are
Despite all the change in the Big 12, there are a few programs that we can put a stamp on them and say “they’re not ready to compete, but we know exactly what we’re getting into.” For other conferences, this tier is for long-tenured lifers at jobs that don’t expect to compete. As with everything in the Big 12, that’s not the case here.
But Baylor isn’t too far off from that, are they? It feels like Dave Aranda has been leading that program for a decade, but it’s really only been since 2020. He led the program to a surprise Big 12 Championship run in 2021, but Baylor has fallen off quickly since then. What’s surprising to me now is that the Bears are the opposite of what Aranda’s known for and are an offense-first team. Overall, this isn’t the best team in the conference and is likely going to be a mid-table team as Baylor always is outside of few and far between standout seasons. SP+ ranks the Bears 71st, while FPI claims Baylor is a 6-6 team. I think they’ll be better than that, especially with one of the nation’s most underrated quarterbacks in Toledo transfer Dequan Finn. I just don’t think Finn is enough to push the Bears back to where Aranda wants them.
Up next is a school that does fit the lifer mold in BYU. The Cougars are led by alumnus Kalani Sitake, who enters his ninth year leading BYU. With that much time in Provo, we can clearly see what this program is: a tough, hard-nosed program that is going to likely be in the middle of the road. They had a few great seasons in the Zach Wilson era, but that’s come and gone. By all metrics, the Cougars are going to be a squarely average team this year: SP+ puts them 65th to FPI’s 73. That’s not to say they won’t make waves, though. BYU is and will always be a tough out, and their stadium is an underrated difficult place to play.
Here’s where some chaos is coming in. Colorado is exactly who we think they are, which is to say we have no idea who they are. The Buffaloes are again going to be the Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter show, but do those two stars have any help around them? Who knows? Once again, Deion Sanders’ squad led the nation with 42 transfer signees, this time ranking eighth in the nation with a 64.30 grade. Eight of those 42 signees are four-star players, including a host of defensive linemen. It seems Coach Prime wanted to get stronger in the trenches, which was a major problem his first year in Boulder. But Colorado also lost 41 players to the portal, including key contributors like tailback Dylan Edwards (Kansas State) and most of their offensive line. That also doesn’t factor in the offensive coordinator change from Sean Lewis to Pat Shurmur, which accompanied a stark drop in play for the Buffs offense. This team is going to be carried by Sanders and Hunter, both of whom had injuries throughout last season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar result in 2024.
Texas Tech was a trendy pick to compete for the conference last season, but were doomed to a 7-6 season and Independence Bowl berth. Unfortunately for Red Raider fans, that’s how it’s been for a long time in Lubbock. They’ve finished with seven or eight wins the entire time Joey McGuire has been there, and I’m not sure they have enough to get past that. However, despite my pessimism about the program, some metrics really like Texas Tech. SP+ puts them at 46th, but FPI shoots the Red Raiders up to 29th. They don’t have a ton of returning production, but a fun storyline to watch is if tailback Tahj Brooks is able to break the school career rushing yards record. Brooks is the real deal, but are the rest of the Red Raiders up to the task? I don’t think so, especially with a lackluster transfer class that isn’t primed to have much impact with only two four-stars.
Starting from scratch
No conference is immune to coaching changes, but the Big 12 came out relatively unscathed with only two major head coaching moves. One is Arizona, who has a shot at the title. The other is a full-on gut job.
Houston made what seemed like a solid hire in the face of transition to the Power Five with Dana Holgorsen, but reality set in and didn’t set in well. The Holgorsen Era was a failure, but I really like the move to get Willy Fritz from Tulane. The only problem is Fritz and Holgorsen run completely different systems. Holgorsen is an Air Raid aficionado that fit in perfectly with the Big 12. Fritz runs a variant of the spread power option that really shined in the American. Plus, the Cougars are only tied for 68th in the nation in returning production, which doesn’t bode well for a team that went 4-8 and had their coach fired. Fritz did snag a quality transfer class that ranks 33rd and features a ton of Tulane guys, but I’m not sure how that translates to this very competitive conference. I think this will work out better than Holgorsen did and might amount to some competitive seasons in the Big 12, but Houston fans need to be patient.
Battling to bowl
This is one of the most parity-driven conferences I’ve seen, so it’s not really shocking that there aren’t a ton of teams I think will struggle to make a bowl. Especially in a Power Four setting. But make no mistake, there are some.
Our first bowl battler actually has an excuse: the previous administration dug a massive hole. Arizona State is going to be better than last season if not just because they started four different quarterbacks, but Kenny Dillingham has his work cut out for him. Especially with the recent sanctions that will complicate recruiting. But that didn’t stop Dillingham from raking in a top-30 transfer class with 29 players, headlined by impact guys like tailbacks Alton McCaskill (Colorado) and Raleek Brown (USC), quarterback Sam Leavitt (Michigan State), and corner Cole Martin (Oregon). The good news is that the Sun Devils are tied for 31st in returning production, which bodes well for a team clearly in a rebuild. I think they win more than the three games they did last year, but a bowl would be a welcome surprise.
The final Big 12 member (gee, this list seems a lot longer than 12 teams) is Cincinnati, who was set up incredibly well before Luke Fickell’s departure. Now, with Scott Satterfield running the show, the Bearcats have taken a clear step back. They’re pretty middle of the road in every metric, which often translates to a team that doesn’t do anything well. Which makes sense following a 3-9 season. FPI and SP+ both show the marks of a team that’ll likely go 5-7, but I’m not sure where the improvement from three wins comes from. They don’t have a ton of returning production, so I wouldn’t expect a big win jump from that. They signed a high volume transfer class, but one that’s short on impact players with only one four-star in a 25-man class (quarterback Brendan Sorsby from Indiana). Their composite class ranked 51st overall, which is fine, but not great. To make a long story short, Cincinnati is a team that’s looking as bad as their chili.
So there you have it. The Big 12 broken down for 2024. Who do you think wins it? And who has a shot at the 12-team playoff? Let me know in the comments below! And let me know if there’s anything I missed or you want to see in later conference breakdowns by leaving a comment, sending a message, or checking in on social media!
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