2024 Conference Preview: Big 10

What does one of the sport's two premier conferences have in store?

Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) takes a quarterback sneak against Ohio State in a 30-24 win, November 26, 2023. Credit: Zoey Holmstrom of Maize and Blue Nation on Flickr.

Edited to fix the Washington head coach as Jedd Fisch instead of Brent Brennan.

Let’s take this moment to remember a great: the Big 10 commercial. May it rest in peace over the new, larger conference.

Now, with that said and a great honored, let’s get into one of the two super conferences that aim to dominate the sport: the Big 10. What was once a tough, hard-nosed Midwestern league has now grown to a nationwide brand with it’s eyes on the prize of national championships and tons of playoff entries.

This is Year 1 for the Western contingent of the Big 10, and without divisions, the top two teams will square off in Lucas Oil Stadium with a likely playoff bye or the Number One Seed on the line. But who gets to Indy? Let’s break it down.

Crème de la crème

We’ll start with an obvious one that has maybe become less obvious as the offseason has dragged on: the College Football Playoff Defending National Champion Michigan Wolverines. A lot has changed since the Wolverines claimed their first title in the CFP Era, namely with head coach Jim Harbaugh and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter off to San Diego and a historic 13 players drafted into the NFL, which is the fourth most in the modern draft era. Sherrone Moore, who took over for Harbaugh amidst his many suspensions last season, will be the new head coach and he replaced Minter with former Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. There’s a lot of change on the player side, too. Michigan is still searching for J.J. McCarthy’s successor with no end in sight. Donovan Edwards will be the main tailback, but is he a step down from Blake Corum. The defense is going to have some talent back in defensive linemen Mason Graham. But this is an inexperienced team, which often doesn’t translate to title runs. Look for Michigan to regress from last year, but stay in the Big 10 title race until The Game.

Speaking of The Game, Ohio State is geared up for revenge. Ryan Day’s seat is getting hotter, whether that’s sensible or not, simply because Harbaugh’s Michigan has owned the Buckeyes recently. Day decided enough was enough and went all-in this year. He has a new offensive coordinator in Chip Kelly who doesn’t need to recruit since Brian Hartline is still on staff. They snagged the top overall transfer in Alabama safety Caleb Downs while also adding impact players in tailback Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss), quarterbacks Will Howard (Kansas State) and Julian Sayin (Alabama), and interior offensive lineman Seth McLaughlin (Alabama). With standouts like Emeka Egbuka, Denzel Burke, J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer returning along with talented recruits Jeremiah Smith and Brandon Inniss, Ohio State has made it clear 2024 is National Championship or bust.

The Big 10 added four new schools, but one is primed to push the others from day one: Oregon. If it wasn’t for some pesky Huskies, the Ducks may have made a run last season. They’re without super senior Bo Nix, who finally looked like he was having fun, but the addition of Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel and UCLA transfer Dante Moore sets the Oregon offense up for the future. The Ducks also rebuilt on the defensive side, landing transfers with at least a 90 grade per 247Sports in defensive linemen Derrick Harmon (Michigan State) and Jamaree Caldwell (Houston) and cornerbacks Jabbar Muhammad (Washington) and Kam Alexander (UTSA). Dan Lanning’s squads always have a tough defense, and Oregon will fit right into the grinding Big 10. But can their revamped offense get past the strong defenses in their new conference home? Advanced metrics seem to think so, with ESPN’s FPI ranking Oregon second and SP+ placing them third. They’re a legit title contender and the Big 10 needs to take them seriously.

Let’s make a run, shall we?

Despite that clear top level, there’s a few teams that could make a run if all goes well. Some of these require more to go well than others, but a run to Indy out of these five schools would be a mild surprise. They should be competing for the final bids into the 12-team playoff.

With the Big 10 West dead, Iowa needs to decide to play offense to get back to the conference title game. Even though the evils of Brian Ferentz have been expunged from Iowa City, the Hawkeyes still have a ton of questions on that side of the ball. Namely, is Deacon Hill really the best they could do? The only thing keeping Iowa from the next tier down is the fact that they’re going to have a stifling defense and room to grow on offense. SP+ pegs the Hawkeyes as the third best defense in the nation, but 108th best offense. FPI ranks Iowa 37th, though, so they’ll need the offense to click. Tailback Leshon Williams will have to be the focal point, but can a pro-style ground and pound system keep up if Deacon Hill plays as poorly as he did last season?

Maryland is probably the biggest outside shot in this tier. They’ll be without talented quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, but transfer M.J. Morris from NC State should be able to step into that role. Morris will have a strong supporting cast in tailback Roman Hemby and wideouts Kaden Prather and Tai Felton. SP+ ranks the Terps offense as 82nd in the nation, and I think they’ll be much better than that. However, for this to work out right, Maryland has to have a ton of new faces mesh and grow over one offseason, as only 45 percent of last season’s production returns in 2024. Also of note, Brian Ferentz is in the building as an analyst. Big 10, you’re not freed of the man yet.

I really struggled on where Northwestern fits into this puzzle and settled on them potentially making a run. Will they? No, probably not. But, hear me out. The Wildcats shocked everyone with a 8-5 record in the wake of a massive scandal, and yet 2024 looks brighter than that. They return the sixth-most production, including 88 percent of the defense, the most in the nation. David Braun’s squad showed their might on defense and have one of the nation’s best linebackers in Xander Mueller returning, who finished second in tackles and sacks and tied for first on the team in interceptions. The only question is if the offense, who has to find a new quarterback, can keep up. If they get anything better than the 56.6 QBR posted by Ben Bryant last season that ranked 75th in the nation, look out for Northwestern.

There’s no way Penn State is down here, right? Wrong. They are. Simply because they haven’t won anything of note since James Franklin took over. They’re a step above the “They are who we think they are” tier, but I need Franklin’s Nittany Lions to show up in a big game before I dub them title contenders. Heading into the 2024 season, Franklin is an astounding 4-16 against Ohio State and Michigan. Change that to any Top Ten team and Franklin’s Penn State is a woeful 3-17, with two of those three wins in 2016. Now, Penn State has a talented quarterback in Drew Allar, but he looked over matched in big games last season. Penn State did hire a new offensive coordinator in Kansas’s Andy Kotelnicki, who should help improve the play of Allar. Penn State needs that if they want to join the true contender tier.

I’ll be the first to say: I don’t think Lincoln Riley at USC is working. I’m working on a full post about that, so we’ll just focus on the high points here. First, Alex Grinch’s defense was akin to football terrorism. Somehow, they were able to squander two seasons with Caleb Williams with little to no to show for it. Now, both Grinch and Williams are gone. In their place is D’Anton Lynn from rival UCLA, where he built one of the nation’s best and most aggressive defenses, and Miller Moss who lit up the scoreboard in USC’s bowl game. I don’t think the Trojans’ offense will ever be an issue with Riley at the helm, but Lynn has a tall task of rebuilding one of the nation’s most under performing defenses. They have the talent to be good, but Grinch set them a far ways back. Let’s see if Lynn can make enough progress in Year 1 to keep the Trojans competitive in one of the nation’s premier conferences.

Wisconsin’s 2023 was really a throw-away year as the team transitions from a run-first pro-style Paul Chryst offense to a modern air raid under offensive coordinator Phil Longo. I thought bringing in Tanner Mordecai would help ease the transition, but it was just too much for the Badgers all at once. But Mordecai and Braelon Allen are both off to the NFL, so who fills the void for them? Tyler Van Dyke is in at quarterback, which could work if they get circa-2021 Van Dyke and not what Miami got the past year. They’re still looking for Allen’s replacement, but that could come from either Jackson Acker or Chez Mellusi, who split time behind Allen last year. The Badgers are going to have a solid defense with Luke Fickell running the show, but need to get some stability on offense if they want to compete.

They are who we think they are

You could argue the Big 10 is the epitome of “They are who we thought they were.” This is a conference full of teams that have their own set identities and coaches that have cultivated those identities for years. Yet, there are only two teams here.

Our first entry this tier is the one with led by the coach with the shortest tenure in Illinois. Luckily for us and Illini fans, Bert Bielema has a Big 10 identity through and through. Illinois is going to play aggressive, tough football, as most of their conference mates will. Bielema and his staff have worked hard this offseason to build their team up in the trenches, landing three defensive lineman and three offensive lineman with a grade of at least 85. They’re going to return dynamic quarterback Luke Altmyer, who should grow more in his second year as the starter. Illinois isn’t going to compete now, but I think they’re doing a great job building a program and roster. Keep an eye on the Fighting Illini over the course of the next few seasons.

Minnesota seems like they are the quintessential P.J. Fleck team. Most people have written them off after a very poor 6-7 season after which they lost a lot of production. But, when you remember this is a boat-rowing Fleck squad, you see where the “we know who they are” comes in. Minnesota is going to be a middle of the road Big 10 team. Some wideout is going to show up and put up astounding numbers out of nowhere. They’re going to inexplicably beat a team they shouldn’t and then lose the next week to a team they shouldn’t. This is the Fleck Creed. Please remember it as we figure out who even plays for the Golden Gophers this year.

Starting from scratch

Surprisingly, there are quite a few Big 10 schools starting over from the bottom. Four, in fact. Some of these are closer to competing than others, but all of them are staring a rebuild in the face and have to find a path forward.

The most enticing school in this tier for me is Michigan State. They nabbed one of the best hires in the nation by snagging Oregon State’s Jonathan Smith, who brought uber-talented quarterback Aiden Chiles with him. Even with 38 players leaving the program in the wake of Mel Tucker’s firing, the Spartans are returning 74 percent of defensive production. Their defense wasn’t astounding last season, but Smith’s squads have a good defensive reputation and an extra year playing together almost always leads to progression. The Spartan offense, on the other hand, was a nightmare. I think Chiles and Smith are able to draw up an improvement there. Michigan State should make a bowl game this season, but I wouldn’t rule out a Northwestern-like jump in Year 1 under Smith.

Indiana really shocked me by moving on from Tom Allen and the hire of James Madison’s Curt Cignetti was a solid one. He brought a bulk of the talent, both on and off the field, from James Madison, but I’m not sure how that translates to the Big 10. They also grabbed Kurtis Rourke from Ohio in the portal, who is one of the nation’s most underrated quarterbacks when healthy. The only problem is he has an injury history the length of a CVS receipt. I think the portal moves make the Hoosiers more competitive in Year 1 than they should be, but make no mistake, Cignetti is going to have to build this program from the ground up.

On the flip side, the program that’s closest to contention here was in the national title game a year ago in Washington. So why are they starting from the bottom? Well, because literally everyone’s gone. The Huskies rank 130th in returning production and that doesn’t include the departure of the entire coaching staff when Kalen DeBoer was plucked up and shipped to Tuscaloosa. They made a great hire with Jedd Fisch, who built Arizona into a PAC-12 contender and kept Mississippi State transfer Will Rogers in Seattle. I don’t think Washington is truly starting from scratch, but this is not the national contending team of last year. Expectations need to be tempered in Seattle. Finishing in the upper half of the conference and harassing Oregon would be a win here.

UCLA had the toughest coaching transition here has defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn bolted for rival USC and head coach Chip Kelly finally gave up recruiting to take over Ohio State’s offense. They have a guy in DeShaun Foster who bleeds UCLA blue and gold, but he’s got a tough task ahead of him. Kelly neglected the recruiting trail the past few years, leaving the cupboard bare. Add in the timing of Kelly’s move and the spring portal cycle and UCLA lost most everything they had built up before. Where the other teams are going to be okay Year 1, I don’t think the Bruins are. They need a while before they can be competitive. Couple that with an apathetic fan base and you get a tall task for Foster in his first year leading a program. Hold onto your hats, Bruin fans, this is going to be bumpy.

Battling to bowl

In terms of teams battling for a bowl game, there are really only two in the Big 10 that aren’t coming off a coaching change that are in danger of missing out on a bowl.

Nebraska started from the bottom when Matt Rhule took over, and Jeff Sims at quarterback somehow made the bottom look better. Despite horrendous quarterback play between Sims, Chubba Purdy and Heinrich Haarberg, the Huskers also couldn’t get anything going on the ground. But Rhule is no stranger to a rebuild and got his guy in five-star quarterback Dylan Raiola. I would assume Raiola takes over under center for the Huskers day one and shouldn’t have any competition. But he’s a true freshman playing in one of the nation’s toughest conferences. Expect some shining moments, but a lot of head scratchers. Nebraska fans, just be patient here. He’ll be good, but he needs time.

Finally, we have Rutgers, who hold a spot as the Big 10 punching bag that I don’t envy. They’re taking the proper steps to build the program back up in Greg Schiano Era Part 2, but they’re Rutgers. They have a budget that, even with more Big 10 money infusions, can’t keep up with the rest of the conference. We’ll see what they can do with a bunch of three star players and no impact transfers, but I think the goal here is a bowl.

So there you have it. The Big 10 broken down for 2024. Who do you think wins it? And who has a shot at the 12-team playoff? Let me know in the comments below! And let me know if there’s anything I missed or you want to see in later conference breakdowns by leaving a comment, sending a message, or checking in on social media!

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