2024 Conference Preview: American
Can the American back up its "Power Six" claim with a playoff bid on the line?
For years, there was one Group of Five conference that stood above all others. In fact, you could still argue it stands above the others. After all, it is the only Group of Five conference that boasts a playoff appearance (2021 Cincinnati) alongside multiple New Year’s Six wins (2020 Cincinnati over Georgia, 2022 Tulane over Oklahoma, etc.). The primary G5 conference poached during realignment (Cincinnati, Houston, SMU, UCF). Of course, we’re talking about the American.
But can they hold up the “Power Six” - or Power Five in this case - moniker with a playoff spot on the line?
Crème de la crème
If we’re talking about playoff bids, in which the five top-rated conference champions will get spots in the 12-team field, there’s really only three American schools with the talent and ability to earn that dance: Memphis, Tulane and UTSA.
Memphis is probably the front runner for the conference and the G5 playoff bid before the season starts. After a few up-and-down seasons, head coach Ryan Silverfield’s squad finally got it right in 2023 with a 10-3 season and bowl win over Iowa State. Their three losses came against quality teams in Missouri (seven points), American runner-up Tulane (10 points) and American Champion SMU (four points). Memphis was incredibly close to running the table, and will have their eyes set on it again. Their offense is led by senior quarterback Seth Henigan, who returns in 2024 alongside six other offensive starters. He brings back his top two targets in Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee. They will need to revamp a pass defense that was particularly porous towards the end of last season that allowed 80 plays of 20-plus yards. If they can plug a porous defense, Memphis could make a healthy run in 2024.
The traditional competition to Memphis is Tulane. Even with a coaching turnover from Willy Fritz (hired by Houston) to ex-Troy headman Jon Sumrall, Tulane will be dangerous. One of the hallmarks of Sumrall’s Trojans was a stifling defense, and Tulane has that same strength. Even without offensive playmakers like quarterback Michael Pratt, wideouts Jha’Quan Jackson and Chris Brazzell II, the offense should still pack a punch. Quarterback Kai Horton, who saw action in relief of an injured Pratt, returns after withdrawing from the portal. Four-star wideout Mario Williams transferred in from USC to become the top target for the Green Wave. The defense under Sumrall will be strong, but can the offense keep up like it did under Fritz?
UTSA is a newcomer to the conference, but Jeff Traylor has positioned the Roadrunners for a conference title run. Quarterback Frank Harris finally ran out of eligibility seven long years later, but Colorado transfer Owen McCown lit up Marshall for 35 points in a blowout bowl victory. They have a solid supporting cast around McCown or sophomore Eddie Lee Marburger, including tight end Oscar Cardenas, who is a massive red zone threat. The Roadrunner defense, though, got gutted in the portal. Longtime safety Pig Cage is off to Louisiana Tech. Top corner Kam Alexander is heading to Oregon. Elite edge rusher Trey Moore is with Texas. If the Roadrunners can replace that production and continue to grow in a post-Harris world, they can compete for the American title.
Let’s make a run, shall we?
The American is a strange conference where, even for a Group of Five league, there’s only a few real competitors. There are two teams in the state of Florida I think could take the next step this year: Florida Atlantic and South Florida.
It’s a bit strange to put a Group of Five team that went 4-8 as ready to make a run, but hang with me here. Florida Atlantic isn’t any other 4-8 team. They started from near the absolute bottom under head coach Tom Herman, who has shown off some recruiting chops as of late. They did lose some production to the portal, including both quarterbacks who took snaps last season, but Herman plugged in similar, if not better, additions. Out are quarterbacks Daniel Richardson and Casey Thompson, who is somehow still in college, and in is Marshall transfer Cam Fancher. Herman also added Maryland tackle Ja’Kavion Nonar, Marshall wideout Caleb Cooms, Florida State tackle Daughtry Richardson and more. He’s built depth up across the roster and it should be ready for the next step. Otherwise, there’s going to be some difficult conversations in Boca Raton.
South Florida may be the most fun team in the nation next year for College Football 25 players. They were one of the nation’s youngest teams last season and return a ton of production. The Bulls will run with one of the nation’s most electric quarterbacks in Byrum Brown, who eclipsed 3,000 passing yards and 800 rushing yards in his first season as starter. The only other FBS player to meet those marks last year? Heisman winner Jayden Daniels. Yeah, Brown is good. He’s also getting back 1,000 yard receiver Sean Atkins and a strong one-two-punch with tailbacks Nay’Quan Wright and Kelley Joiner Jr. Four offensive linemen who started the final four games return. This is a young, hungry team that has a massive amount of offensive talent. The only thing between them and a breakout season is a defense that allowed a whopping 34.9 points per game last season, tied for 123rd in the nation. That needs to improve if the Bulls are going to run the table.
They are who we think they are
Army is going to do what Army does. They’re going to run a wishbone/flexbone offense that is going to punish opposing defenses. They aren’t going to throw. We know what Army under Jeff Monken looks like. Even with that strange move to the shotgun that backfired last year, Army is going to do Army things. The only real question for the Black Knights is if they can claim the Commander In Chief’s Trophy for the second consecutive year. They’ll have to go through Air Force to get it, which is a tall task year in and year out.
This is another rebound pick with East Carolina. The Pirates were an atrocious 2-10 in Mike Houston’s fifth season at the helm, but the underlying stats weren’t that horrible. Traditionally, the Pirates had a strong offense. 2023 saw the growth of the defense, setting high marks in points per game allowed (22.4), passing yards per game allowed (219.2) and total yards allowed per game (341.3) in the Houston era. The offense was atrocious, though, finishing at the bottom of the American in total offense and scoring offense. They’ve reloaded in the portal with three-star quarterbacks Bryson Harrison (Georgia State), Jake Garcia (Missouri) and Katin Houser (Michigan State) competing for a starting role. ECU also picked up commits from tailback London Montgomery (Penn State), tight ends Jayvontay Conner (Ole Miss) and Casey Kelly (Oregon), tackle Darius Bell (Maine), interior offensive lineman Qae’Shon Sapp (Florida State), and wideouts O’Mega Blake (South Carolina), Anthony Smith (NC State), and Winston Wright Jr. (Florida State). If that can’t jumpstart the Pirate offense like we saw with Holton Ahlers under center, I don’t know what can.
Finally, we have another lackluster team in Rice. Head coach Mike Bloomgren is entering his sixth season with Rice and seems to have the program on the come-up. This is a school that has very stringent academic standards, and without a Power Four brand backing it, it’s hard to draw in talent. Despite that, Bloomgren has made Rice competitive. They’ve reached bowls in each of the last two seasons and are another defensive stalwart in the American. The Owls return 81 percent of their production from last year, fifth highest in the nation, and hope to take a step forward. However, they lost major impact players such as J.T. Daniels, Luke McCaffrey and Clay Servin. In a competitive conference, losing that much star power could really hurt the Owls. Unless they find a way to replace those three, I think Rice is stuck where they’ve been for as long as I can remember: battling for bowl bids.
Starting from scratch
One of the programs closest to the bottom in the FBS right now is Charlotte. The 49ers haven’t done much since their jump to the FBS in 2015 after the program was started up in 2013. Before then, the only three seasons the 49ers competed on the gridiron was in 1946-48. Charlotte is in Year 2 under head coach Biff Poggi, who objectively has one of the best names in college football. Poggi served as an associate head coach during the Harbaugh Michigan era and has experience in the Baltimore high school ranks with Saint Frances Academy. So far, Poggi has raised the standards. In 2024, Poggi’s Niners landed the No. 77 overall class, including transfers and high school recruits. Of the top 10 recruits in Charlotte football history, Poggi has landed six. This is going to be a slow build, but if Poggi can keep building from the ground floor, Charlotte may compete in the American soon.
It’s always difficult to take over for a long-tenured head coach, and Navy’s Brian Newberry has to add in the rigors of recruiting to the Naval Academy to that. The Midshipmen went a respectable 5-7 in Newberry’s first season and are looking to jumpstart their offense with the hire of offensive coordinator Drew Cronic from Mercer. Cronic carries a ton of FCS experience, but how does that translate to the triple option service academies at the FBS level? Either way, he just needs to keep pace with a stifling defense. Last season, Navy’s defense tied for the nation lead in shutouts with three, finished second in the nation with 14 fumble recoveries and finished fourth in turnover margin at +0.92 per game. Some of that defensive prowess can come from the slow triple option offense, but this was a very good unit. If Cronic can jumpstart the offense and make them more explosive, Navy could be problematic going forward.
UAB made one of the wildest hires of last cycle by tabbing former NFL quarterback and Elite 11 founder Trent Dilfer as head man. While he served as the antithesis to Deion Sanders through offseason rhetoric, not much was said about the Blazers. UAB’s offense, though, was electric. Quarterback Jacob Zeno set school records in single season completions (279), completion percentage (73.6) and finished second in passing yards (3,126). Tailback Jermaine Brown Jr led the American in all-purpose yards, but left the program. All told, the Blazers return 81 players from last season. The main problem from 2023 was the defense, which saw 10 true freshmen see considerable playing time. Those 10 return alongside senior linebacker Michael Moore, senior defensive tackle Kevin Penn and senior cornerbacks Mac McWilliams and Colby Dempsey. A year of experience means a lot at this level, and that should help the UAB defense grow.
Battling to bowl
It’s been a long time since the days of Mason Fine and nine-win seasons for North Texas. 2023 showed some promise in the first year of the Eric Morris era with an explosive offense that threatened to keep up with everyone. The only problem was the defense wasn’t ready for the challenge and let the Mean Green down more often than not. In fact, the defense was one of the nation’s worst in 2023, allowing 37.1 points per game, ranking 131st out of 133. There were no takeaways. No pash rush. The Mean Green defense ignored the “Mean” moniker and played scared. With the offense gutted by the portal - 36 players departed - I’m worried about how North Texas looks in 2024. Maybe the addition of TCU transfer Chandler Morris can help kick the offense into overdrive, but is that enough to keep up?
Temple, while a great meme, is not looking like a great team. ESPN’s FPI ranked the Owls - that’s right, the American has three Owls - as the second-worst team in the nation. That’s behind even Kennesaw State, who is transitioning following a 3-9 season in the FCS ranks. The 2023 Owls were pretty poor at everything aside from passing the ball, where son of NFL legend Kurt Warner, E.J. Warner, threw for 3,076 yards and posted a 57.6 QBR that ranked him as average in the nation. Head coach Stan Drayton likes to establish the run, which makes Warner’s success even more puzzling. The Owls brought in 19 transfers, many of which should see the field immediately. There aren’t many major standouts, but with Warner off to Rice, they will have to replace their one bright spot. Is Rutgers transfer quarterback Evan Simon the guy to do that?
Our final team, the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes, are probably the ones in this tier to be most excited about. Even after a 4-8 season in 2023, Tulsa has room to improve. They boast a quality head coach in Kevin Wilson who has Power Four experience leading Indiana and as Ohio State’s offensive coordinator. They also trotted out four quarterbacks last season, which is not a recipe for success. Wilson, Golden Hurricane has done a good job in establishing the run, though, ranking 36th in the nation with 181.1 yards per game last season. Like many of the teams towards the bottom of the American, the defense is incredibly porous, though. 33.8 points allowed per game is not going to cut it. Without any major impact transfers, I don’t know if Tulsa is able to correct their defensive woes, but the offense should improve with a modicum of stability under center. I just don’t think that’s enough to go bowling.
So there you have it. The American broken down for 2024. Who do you think wins it? Will anyone make the 12-team playoff? Let me know in the comments below! And let me know if there’s anything I missed or you want to see in later conference breakdowns by leaving a comment, sending a message, or checking in on social media!
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Interesting nugget about Charlotte recruiting! I’d also love to see the Green Wave keep it up on offense but I’m a bit skeptical