2024 Conference Preview: ACC
What does the newly-expanded ACC have in store?
A tree, a pony and a bear walk into a bar. No, that’s not the lead in for a joke. Well, maybe it is. Anyway, the ACC (the bar) is going to look different this year, with new members Stanford (the tree), SMU (the pony), and California (the bear). So how does this new look ACC shake out? Let’s dig in!
Crème de la crème
There are really two teams at the top of this conference, and I’m sure you can guess who they are based on the picture I chose. That’s right: Clemson and Florida State.
Clemson is an elite program. Just look at the national championships won by Dabo Swinney. Sure, it’s been a few years, but do you know how many active head coaches have national championship rings? Two: Swinney and Georgia’s Kirby Smart. That’s enough to make me call Clemson elite.
The only problem with that is they looked pretty pedestrian last year. Despite the splashy hire of offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, the Tigers still didn’t break out. Riley was brought in to help vitalize quarterback Cade Klubnik, but the screen-heavy offense led to Klubnik ranking 80th in the nation in QBR. The only bright spot was Phil Mafah, who punished opposing defenses in a lethal one-two punch with Will Shipley. But, with Shipley gone to the NFL, can Mafah carry the load himself?
On the flip side, we have Florida State. The Seminoles have been building up for a run under Mike Norvell, and many people, myself included, thought they deserved a chance in the playoff in 2023. However, an ill-timed injury to Jordan Travis ended those hopes. Now, Florida State has to rebuild after so much of their production on both sides of the ball is gone. Here’s a list of draftees from Florida State’s team last year:
QB Jordan Travis
DE Jared Verse
DT Braden Fiske
WR Keon Coleman
DB Renardo Green
RB Trey Benson
DB Jarrian Jones
WR Johnny Wilson
TE Jaheim Bell
With that much talent gone, how do the Seminoles replace it? They did bring in the No. 7 overall transfer class, per 247Sports, so that’s a start. But can a team led by D.J. Uiagalelei really be that good?
Let’s make a run, shall we?
Up next, we have some teams that could make waves. Especially in a conference without a clear championship contender like the ACC.
This is probably the most head-scratching pick I made here. Georgia Tech competing? Don’t dismiss it outright. They went 2-2 against ranked opponents, but more or less alternated wins and losses all season. Quarterback Haynes King had a solid season, posting a 73.2 QBR, ranking 28th in the nation, and the Yellow Jacket rushing attack ranked 13th with 203.8 yards per game. The only problem was the defense, which allowed 30.5 points per game, ranking 104th in the nation. They didn’t really add any major defensive contributors through the portal and their recruiting class ranked 51st. Most of the top prospects came on the offensive side of the ball, including four-star wideout Isiah Canion, but they did snag four-star corner Troy Stevenson out of South Carolina, who carries a 90 rating on 247Sports. Their transfer class did focus on defense, but most could be seen as depth guys. Is that enough to improve the defense so the offense can take over?
Louisville was a surprise in Year 1 under Jeff Brohm, led by an explosive offense behind quarterback Jack Plummer and dynamic tailbacks Jawhar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo. Unfortunately for Cardinals fans, all three are gone. But not all is lost, right? Louisville and Brohm leaned heavily on the portal in Year 1, and will do the same in Year 2. The Cardinals pulled in the 13th best class per 247Sports, snagging a whopping 31 commits. The new class will have an immediate impact with players like safety Tamarion McDonald (Tennessee), wideouts Ja’Corey Brooks (Alabama) and Caullin Lacy (South Alabama), and quarterback Tyler Shough (Texas Tech). Much of the build of the 2024 Cardinals looks like 2023 with one big question: can the portal build work again?
Miami, as one commenter on Facebook stated, is “offseason champs for 22 years straight.” Does that translate to success in 2024? They did sign a top quarterback in graduate transfer Cam Ward from Washington State, but also nabbed top-10 rankings in high school recruiting (6) and transfer classes (10). Mario Cristobal and general manager Alonzo Highsmith grabbed some top-tier prospects. They signed six players out of high school with at least a 95 rating per 247, including five-star defensive lineman Justin Scott. On the portal side, they revamped the offense with Ward and running back Damien Martinez, who is one of the best backs in the nation. Some of the freshmen will likely see the field immediately, and the transfer class is loaded with four stars. All that’s left is for Cristobal to put the team together and actually make a run.
Mack Brown has done a great job in reviving North Carolina, but it feels the Tar Heels have hit a bit of a wall. They had an elite offense in 2023 headlined by Drake Maye top-five pick Drake Maye. But Maye is gone to New England and there’s a massive hole at the signal caller position. Who does Brown turn to to lead the offense? Brown said there wasn’t a clear winner in Spring ball. Right now, the competition is between Max Johnson and Conner Harrell. Johnson, a graduate transfer, comes to Chapel Hill with four years of starting under his belt at LSU and Texas A&M. Lifetime, he carries a 60.4 completion percentage and 47 touchdowns in 30 career games. Harrell, meanwhile, was the primary backup to Maye last year. Harrell appeared in five of the Tar Heels’ games last year, completing 22 of 33 attempts for 270 yards and two scores. By all indications, Brown is going to let the battle simmer until Fall.
We already talked about SMU last week in the realignment recap, so I won’t rehash those points here too much. The Mustangs ran through the American last year to the tune of an 11-3 record, conference championship, and No. 22 ranking in the final AP Poll. They return a ton of production, including star junior quarterback Preston Stone. They added 19 transfers, most of which are Power Four guys, in the portal, but most of the signees didn’t see much action previously. I’m more worried that head coach Rhett Lashlee only signed 10 players out of high school, ranking 108th overall per 247. They did get a quality tailback in four-star Derrick McFall, but Lashlee runs a variant of the run and shoot with some air raid concepts. It’s not a run-heavy offense. The only reason SMU is in this section is because of their returning production - namely Stone. If they can build on a very strong 2023 in a winnable ACC, they have a shot. Their schedule isn’t too bad, getting Florida State at home and avoiding Clemson. SMU has the path to surprise in Year 1.
Additional Reading:
The last true competitor for the conference, if all goes well, is Virginia Tech. The Hokies finally have a quality, stable coach in Brent Pry. They went 7-6 last year despite a rough 1-3 start, winning three of the last four. Pry has a legit budding star in quarterback Kyren Drones, who took over for Grant Wells in Week 3. Dones posted a 68.6 QBR, ranking 39th, and took care of the football with only three interceptions on 285 attempts. He also ran the ball incredibly well with 818 yards on 166 carries without a fumble. This is a team that’s run like the Michael Vick days, especially with the dynamic Drones under center. The only problem is they aren’t bringing in top-tier talent. Pry only added seven transfers, most of which are depth guys. The biggest name is quarterback Collin Schlee, but he’s locked in as Drones’s backup. On the high school side, the Hokies closed in at 45th nationally with only one player carrying over a 90 grade in linebacker Gabe Williams. If Drones can take another step in 2024, Virginia Tech will be dangerous. If not, then they’ll sit back at 7-6. For what it’s worth, FPI ranks the Hokies 50th with a projected 6-6 record and eighth in the ACC.
They are who we think they are
In every conference, there are a few teams with long-tenured head coaches that we know exactly what to expect year-in and year-out. In the ACC, there’s three teams that meet this: NC State, Pittsburgh and Wake Forest.
Out of the three in this category, NC State under Dave Doeren is most likely to make a run. So why not put them in the make a run category? Well, because that’s expected. In his 10-year run, Doeren’s Wolfpack have amassed an 81-58 record. They’ve finished in the top four of the ACC eight times but are still chasing a conference title. They’ve finished with seven to nine wins in all but two seasons. They’re going to be tough out, but will they compete for the ACC this year? Not likely. Quarterback Brennan Armstrong was a hot pick to heat up when reunited with offensive coordinate Robert Anae, but posted one of the worst seasons of his career. He’s back for his senior year in 2024, but can he return to the elite 2021 Armstrong? I doubt it. Either way, NC State is going to be a tough, grinding team that will make it hard for every team they come across.
Pat Narduzzi is still the head man at Pittsburgh and fits the city and the program well. He runs a hard-nosed, blue collar team that will run the ball down your throat. The only problem is it seems the game has left Narduzzi behind. Pitt hasn’t been as consistent as the Doeren-led NC State in Narduzzi’s nine seasons, but they have the conference title that has so far eluded Doeren. For Narduzzi, though, the wheels are coming off. Kenny Pickett is gone and the Panthers plummeted to 3-9 last season as the rushing game floundered and quarterback Christian Veilleux posted a 27.3 QBR in relief of Phil Jurkovec. Both Jurkovec and Veilleux are gone as Alabama transfer Eli Holstein factors to be the Panthers’ quarterback in 2024. This is a less extreme Iowa situation where Narduzzi fields a very strong defense each season, but the offense has to keep up. So far, that’s only been when Kenny Pickett was under center. I don’t see that changing in 2024.
The final team here has had some very high highs, but is sitting on a low low now. Wake Forest’s Dave Clawson has also crossed the decade mark with the Demon Deacons, but has to rebuild after losing one of the best quarterbacks in school history in Sam Hartman. During Hartman’s time in Winston-Salem as the full-time starter, Wake was a hard out. They finished 11-3 in 2021 as Hartman torched opposing defenses, but fell to 7-5 the next season. With Hartman off to Notre Dame in 2023, Clawson turned to Mitch Griffis, whose 36.1 QBR wasn’t enough and the Deacons dropped to an abysmal 4-8 and 1-7 in ACC play. Griffis is lined up to compete for the starting job with Louisiana Tech transfer Hank Bachmeier, neither of which inspires much confidence. This is a team that runs through their offense and quarterback in particular. Without a major star under center, Wake Forest is going to struggle.
Starting from scratch
The ACC saw its fair share of coaching turnover, with three new head coaches in 2024.
To me, Boston College’s hire of Bill O’Brien is one of the most interesting in the nation. They were incredibly limited after head coach Jeff Hafley surprised everyone by taking the Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator job after the cycle closed, but they still came up with a quality coach in O’Brien. A graduate of the Saban Reclamation Project and resurrector of the post-Sandusky Penn State era, O’Brien has his work cut out for him. As a private religious school, Boston College has a hard time attracting players. Recruiting is difficult. So, they’ll need a few years before really competing. But, O’Brien has one of the most underrated quarterbacks in Thomas Castellanos, who could do very well in O’Brien’s spread option system. There wasn’t much time for O’Brien to hit the recruiting or portal trails, so there isn’t much to discuss there. But I expect him to do well with one of the nation’s top dual threats in Castellanos.
Mike Elko did a great job with Duke, bringing them from basketball school to football contender. But Elko moved on to Texas A&M and Duke got gutted in the portal, losing a ton of key contributors including quarterback Riley Leonard (Notre Dame), tailback Jordan Waters (NC State) and edge rusher R.J. Oben (Notre Dame). With new head coach Manny Diaz, it’s clear the Blue Devils brass wants to stay a defense-first team. Diaz had some success in the ACC in his three years leading Miami, earning a 21-15 record overall. He got some quality transfers that will make immediate impacts like quarterback Maalik Murphy (Texas), defensive lineman Kendy Charles (Liberty), tailback Al Wooten II (Mercer) and wideout Javon Harvey (Old Dominion). Nobody is expecting Duke to be the Leonard and Elko-led teams, but they still should be solid. I would be surprised if Duke didn’t reach a bowl, which should be their floor this year. I would be surprised if the team pushed for a conference championship bid, though.
Syracuse under Dino Babers was a disappointment. The up-tempo offense he brought from Bowling Green just didn’t cut it at the next level. So, the Orange turned a different way, hiring first-time head coach Fran Brown. While his X’s and O’s aren’t known yet, he is one of the nation’s top recruiters. This is a long-term hire, make no mistake. Brown has the acumen to sign some of the nation’s best talent. In his two years at Georgia, Brown signed four five-stars and 22 players with a 90 grade or higher from 247. He’s already flexed his recruiting muscles, landing Ohio State transfer Kyle McCord who is not as bad as the media would make him out to be. The Orange have a chance to go bowling in 2024, but a lot depends on their coordinators. The offense will be led by NFL-vet Jeff Nixon, who was the New York Giants’ running backs coach and buoyed the Carolina Panthers’ running back room after the trade of Christian McCaffrey. He also called the plays during Baylor’s 2019 run to the Sugar Bowl. The defensive coordinator, Elijah Robinson, also has serious recruiting chops and served as assistant head coach for Texas A&M since 2022.
Battling to bowl
This final group of teams is going to struggle for bowl appearances. That’s not unheard of in the Power Four ranks, but there are three programs struggling in the ACC. Some of that is because of admissions restrictions, others are self-inflicted.
Cal is a team most forget about. They haven’t done much in the PAC-12, and likely won’t do much in the ACC either. The Golden Bears do have one of my favorite players in the nation in tailback Jadyn Ott, who ran for 1,305 yards and 12 scores last season. The only problem was there wasn’t much help for Ott. The defense allowed a whopping 32.7 points per game as Cal finished with a negative point differential in a 6-7 season. If sophomore Sam Jackson V is healthy, though, Cal could surprise some people. He was electric in his five games of action in 2023, while Fernando Mendoza was less so.
Even though Stanford is down here, I like where the Cardinal sit. Troy Taylor is a real coach’s coach and is already getting this program back on track. With the incredibly stringent enrollment requirements, recruiting is hard at Stanford, but Taylor has an inventive system that allows him to take advantage of the talent he does have. The Cardinal likely aren’t going bowling this year with a tough schedule, including a brutal eight-game stretch in the middle of the season that goes at Clemson, home against Virginia Tech, at Notre Dame, home against SMU and Wake Forest, at NC State and home against Louisville. That’s tough for anyone to get past and I wouldn’t be surprised to see an eight-game losing streak there.
To be completely fair, Tony Elliott got dealt a tough hand, especially with the shooting in 2022 that targeted the football team. But Elliott is not building a program here. Their recruiting class ranks 88th with only 13 signees, none of which are rated over 90. The transfer class ranks 52nd, but there isn’t many impact players this side of returner Chris Tyree. The Cavaliers do have an intriguing quarterback in sophomore Anthony Colandrea, though, who posted a 70.1 QBR, ranking 35th as a true freshman. I’m excited to see what he does in a full season at the helm. However, Virginia only went 1-6 with Colandrea under center and 2-3 with Tony Muskett, who was a clear step down from the freshman Colandrea.
So there you have it. The ACC broken down for 2024. Who do you think wins it? And who has a shot at the 12-team playoff? Let me know in the comments below! And let me know if there’s anything I missed or you want to see in later conference breakdowns by leaving a comment, sending a message, or checking in on social media!
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