Four Corners Schools, you're up!
A look at the four schools that hold the keys to the PAC-12
I’m sure you’ve heard the news by now, Colorado is heading to the Big 12. In the grand scheme of things, that’s where they belong. The Buffaloes left their conference home in 2010 after helping found the conference in 1996 following the demise of the Southwest Conference. Now, they’re clawing their way back in.
But why did the Buffs make the move, and what’s coming next?
The Pac-12
Listen, I know you’re sick of hearing about the PAC-12 (or 10? or now nine?) media deal. I’m sick of it to. I thought I was done writing about it in February. Apparently not.
To make a long story short, the PAC-12 still needs to get its media deal done. That’s right, the conference went through the entire offseason and their media days without a TV contract in place. That’s astounding.
In my February article, I talked about what a media deal is and why the PAC-12 not having one was a major problem, so we won’t cover that here. Instead, let’s look at what went wrong in the PAC-12.
Since that newsletter in February, nothing has changed. Literally nothing. There are no new pretenses of the conference nearing a media deal. Instead, we have PAC-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff saying, “the longer we wait for a media deal, the better the options we get.” That may go down as one of the worst quotes in college football history. Because the conference has waited, that’s for sure. But they don’t have anything to show from it.
Colorado, the school that had the biggest chances to turn around the national spotlight on the PAC-12 after the hiring of very controversial and very TV-friendly Deion Sanders, is gone. If there’s one thing that decreases the payout of a media deal, it’s losing teams and brands covered in that deal. Especially the ones that draw clicks and views.
The biggest problem here is that schools are not seeing any inklings of a media deal. Perhaps that’s why Colorado jumped ship. In fact, that, and the yearlong courtship between Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark and Colorado brass to bring the Buffs back home are the reasons for the move. But now, after one school as broken the seals, others have to decide.
Two days ago, Arizona president Robert C. Robbins told The Athletic’s Max Olson, “All I keep saying is, you know, we're just waiting to get a deal. And then everybody has to evaluate the deal on its merits. I've been pretty steadfast in that stance."
Colorado AD Rick George repeatedly deflected questions on seeing the PAC-12 media deal in the press conference announcing the move to the Big 12.
There is no deal. Now, schools are jumping ship.
The Big 12
Now, onto greener pastures. Or, in this case, the Big 12.
Brett Yormark has proved to be a good commissioner. He’s identified good expansion candidates in BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF. He’s brought Colorado back to its rightful conference.
Yormark took a conference that was kneecapped by Texas and Oklahoma’s departure for the SEC in 2021 and made it a model of post-realignment stability. And he’s not done yet.
In the wake of Colorado, Yormark trolled everyone with a Jordan reference. The, he went to work. Brett McMurphy of Action Sports is reporting that Yormark wants to add one-to-three schools alongside Colorado.
Remember, McMurphy was one of the first to have the report of Colorado officially jumping ship. So, his reporting and sources are sound. Also remember what Arizona’s Robbins said about the PAC-12 media deal? Well, McMurphy’s sources are saying that Arizona is primed to follow Colorado’s lead.
But how does the Big 12 offer safety for these PAC-12 refugees? Sure, it makes sense for a Memphis or a UCONN (no, seriously) to jump to a Power Five conference, but what about fellow P5 defectors?
In the Big 12’s new media deal, they have a clause called pro rata. In layman’s terms, pro rata means that new members will be included in the conference’s media deal as full members and receive their full media share. While that sounds obvious, it’s actually not. Most conferences, when expanding after a deal is signed, offer prorated media deal payouts for a probationary period.
Included in the Big 12’s pro rata clause is the fact that their media deal prices raise if the conference adds other Power 5 schools. Essentially, everyone wins if the conference adds more Power Five schools. Take Colorado for example. The Buffaloes are going to receive a full media share of $31.4 million annually as soon as the Big 12’s new media rights deal kicks in in 2025, according to McMurphy.
With pro rata in mind, it makes sense why Yormark is going for the jugular now. The PAC-12 is floundering without a media deal. In fact, that media deal may have played a major part in the conference’s bungled recruiting of San Diego State.
If the PAC-12’s media deal isn’t appealing to a school jumping from the Mountain West—or worse, doesn’t exist at all—how can they compete with the Big 12’s pro rata clause?
The Four Corners
And now we’ve arrived at the big question: what do the Four Corners schools do? For those that don’t know, the Four Corners schools include Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah, so named for their location within the “Four Corners States.”
Robbins has made it clear that Arizona wants to stay in the PAC-12 and will wait to see Kliavkoff’s media deal pitch. He’s also told ESPN’s Pete Thamel, "We don’t have to do the same thing. But [Arizona State] President [Michael] Crow and I are very, very tight. I think it’d be unlikely that we’d be split up.” Robbins clarified later in the interview that he does have the autonomy to move conferences without Arizona State.
Arizona does have the unique position of being a basketball power, which is clearly something Yormark values. With realignment discussions with Gonzaga and UCONN, the Big 12 is jockeying for the position of the top basketball conference. That could be a major draw for the Wildcats, who may have enough sway or close relationships to bring Arizona State along with them.
Utah is more of an enigma. They Utes have been very tight-lipped about the state of the conference and potential realignment. But, arch rival BYU is a new Big 12 member. Is that, coupled with a couple extra million a year, enough to bring Utah into the fold?
If we take the Four Corners schools out of the PAC-12 for a moment, perhaps we see why these schools are the biggest realignment targets. Left over are Cal and Stanford, two of the most prestigious academic institutions of the nation that often forget they have athletic programs in the Power Five. Washington and Oregon have strong academics as AAU members, but have flirted with the Big 10 multiple times. Oregon State and Washington State are the misfits that don’t quite have a place to go.
With the PAC-12 remaining as a seemingly academics-first conference, could the Four Corners schools look to get away from that and prioritize athletics and a big payout through the Big 12 media deal’s pro rata. They see the offer on the table: $37.1 million a year. It’s up to Kliavkoff to beat that and actually make a PAC-12 media deal materialize.
Kliavkoff has said he wants to wait out a media deal and secure the best one possible. Now, he needs to just secure one.